Wednesday Forecast

36 Comments

4:29PM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)
A warm and muggy airmass is in place and a frontal boundary sits just north of the region, but a sea breeze front and old boundary from a previous set of storms are sitting in the region, the strongest just to the south and southwest of Boston where the majority of the shower and thunderstorm activity has been today. Other cells have popped up elsewhere but most of those have been isolated and short-lived. This unstable air will remain around through tonight into tomorrow and a disturbance will also pass by tomorrow from northwest to southeast, dragging the surface front southward. The timing of this front and subsequent arrival of cooler and more stable air from the north will determine where the highest threat of thunderstorms is. Still leaning toward far southern MA, parts of RI, and mainly CT for that, during the day on Thursday. Also still to be determined is the amount of wet weather Friday, again dependent on how far south the front pushes. What’s for sure is it will be much cooler. The weekend will see a recovery and return to more summertime conditions.
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Any storms may be briefly strong to severe with torrential rain, flash flooding, frequent lightning, and possible hail. Temperatures ranging 77-86. Humid. Wind variable mainly SE to S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near some storms.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. Muggy. Lows 66-74. Wind light S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms, some possibly severe, favoring southern areas. Humid. Highs 75-83. Wind variable eventually becoming NE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and a chance of thunderstorms favoring southern MA, CT, and RI. Humid. Highs 67-75. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated late-day showers/thunderstorms, favoring southern NH and northern MA. Lows from middle to upper 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms July 17-18 returning again late in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-5 (JULY 22-26)
Typical July pattern. Episodes of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures not far from normal most days.

36 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Repost from end of last blog:

    Just had an awful ride though eastern CT from Coventry to Jewett city where my son is supposed to be playing another baseball tournament game tonight. Torrential rain, flooded roads, hail, cloud to ground bolts, and downed branches on Rte 14 most of the way from willimantic to just north of here. Followed the storm the whole way and they appear to be training over the same area. Would not be surprised to see some flooding reports. Fortunately no hail damage to the car!

    1. WOW! Nothing like that up here. All action to this point to the South.
      We shall see with the next batch.

  3. Thanks for the update.

    As was mentioned before, a big slug of convective rain in the Western part of
    the state “looks” destined to travel Eastward and not split up. We shall see.

      1. I’m not home. I’m still at work.

        A couple of drops here and it looks like it could be raining at home.

        Then I have to pick up my son at Long Wharf at 5:30.
        I have to leave the office at 5 and hope I can travel 3.3 miles
        in 1/2 hour. 😀 😀

  5. Hearing thunder again in Wilmington. This time to the north. That cell has been sauntering down from the NH state line for an hour, hour and a half now. With the slowness of these cells and the amount of moisture in the atmosphere, some of the 3-day rainfall totals from today, tomorrow, and Friday are going to be quite high.

      1. Still have only received a few drops of rain. This cell is near stationary as are a few others right now.

        1. Finally, the steady rain has arrived. Took 45 minutes to move the 3-5 miles south into my location.

  7. HOT down here in Virginia.
    I see some active weather in parts of SNE with numerous flood and severe thunderstorm warnings. I see the past two runs of the NAM have cooled it quite bit with some of the severe parameters compared to what 6z NAM was showing for tomorrow.

  8. Wow – very, very loud thunder in Wilmington. Been a while since I’ve heard it like this. The core of the storm is closer to Burlington, can’t imagine what it sounds like over there.

      1. Impressive, that’s the type of amount you expect to see from an intense thunderstorm in the tropics. We certainly do have that kind of moisture here right now.

  10. Big storm now approaching Boston. Still has lots of lightning and just slightly sub-severe winds.

  11. Flash Flood Watch just got expanded at 7 to include the counties north of Boston. Goes until 9 PM.

  12. Whatever giant hand forcing all the storms away from Boston was a bit late on that last cell. It clipped most of the city before getting turned to the northeast.

    1. Barely and I mean barely were we clipped bubthe southern edge. Looked really juicy for awhile, but not here. 3 claps of thunder and done.

      1. Yet now it doesn’t seem to want to quit. Looks like a little back building or refiring on an outflow boundary or some such thing.

  13. Lots of very interesting radar meteorology today. Many, many different storm cells. As expected, the biggest impact has turned out to be the heavy rain. There were some very impressive cores to these storms at times though, hence a few wind damage and hail reports. In addition, several of those stronger storms had significant rotation well aloft, around 10,000 feet or even higher, occasionally trying to work it into the lower levels. Thankfully, we were lacking in shear; if the shear had been a little better with the very high instability we had, we would’ve been looking at a tornado threat. Of course, typically this is just the way it happens around here; you get the instability, or the shear, but rarely enough of both.

    Tomorrow, I agree with TK, best chance of any storms should be south and west. Looking at the HRRR, it’s possible that backdoor front is even a little quicker than expected. Right now it shows it moving through Boston before noon tomorrow.

      1. Tomorrow’s going to be interesting …… Conceivably could have a sub 50F dewpoint in extreme SW Maine and a 75F dewpoint in southwestern New England. (Current dps are in the mid 40s in northern Maine)

        I hope we get onto the north side of the front before afternoon max heating tomorrow.

    2. I also look at that area of thunderstorms west of Concord.

      They look to be producing torrential rains and not moving quickly.

      It’s dark now, mid summer, probably campers out there. Hope flash flooding doesn’t become a major issue ……..

  16. Pretty interesting cell sitting on the cold front in NH. Strong for this time of day. Might even wake me up early if the front decides to move south.

  17. 11pm obs may indicate, that while the dewpoints don’t change much, that a front has pushed through northeast mass and even reached Logan. All light n and ne winds ….

  18. With all of that rain around today, I managed a measly 0.26 in total for the whole damn day.

    That light NW is due to the gradient I believe and the front is actually still to
    The North. That light NW is all the way to Norwood. No way the front is that far.

    Still a 70 dp at Lawrence.

    Just my thoughts fwiw. 😀

    Leaving the windows OPEN all night as I don’t think there is a snow ball’s chance in hell of rain over night. Tomorrow during the day is a different story.

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