4:44PM
Yes, it is true. We are about half way through the final week of July. Don’t despair, summer lovers. There is still much summer left, and even though you will soon notice that those sunsets are not quite as late as they were in June and July, it is still light well into the evening and will continue to be this way for a few more weeks. And we are just passing by the climatological temperature max, so there will be plenty of beach days ahead, and some of the warmest ocean water of the year still is in the time before us.
The weather in the Boston area will be changeable the next few days, though no drastic changes are expected. This will lead to a very nice mid summer weekend. I hope most of you are able to enjoy what will be a great weekend for beaches, pools, bbq’s, and other outdoor activities. On the way to the weekend, we may have to go through a few showers and thunderstorms on Friday, as a weak cold front (more like “drier air front”) moves through, as Friday will be on the humid side and the weekend, though very warm, will be drier. Before we get there, clouds in the sky this afternoon are associated with a pool of cold air passing north of us. This cold pool is what was responsible for the scattered severe thunderstorms yesterday. Once this moves away tonight, the clouds will dissipate. Thursday, a warm front approaching from the west will send some high clouds into the area, filtering the sun at times. These clouds will thicken at night and may produce a few showers, as the leading edge of Friday’s muggy air moves in.
Forecast for the last 4 days of July…
TONIGHT: Decreasing low clouds. Low from the upper 50s rural and suburban areas to lower 60s coastal areas and urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to N.
THURSDAY: Increasing high clouds. High from the middle 70s immediate coast to the lower 80s well inland. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a few light showers, especially west and north of Boston. Low 63-68. Wind E under 10 MPH shifting to S.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. High 82-87. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 64-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 85-90. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 64-69. Wind W under 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 84-89 except cooler near the coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with coastal seabreezes possible.
A peek ahead to the first few days of August…
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 65. High 81.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 68. High 92.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Low 69. High 89.
TK – question. Why did we get the thunderstorms yesterday if the cold pool was over us today? Is that like when a cold front passes and you sometimes get the storms out ahead of the actual front?
Also – thanks for the great post!
We were already under the influence of the cyclonic cool pool even yesterday, and part of the region was in a warm/humid airmass (away from the stabilizing effect of the ocean).
Thanks, TK!
Nice to open up the windows and have mother nature as the air conditioner.
Friday will be the day to watch for the possiblity of thunderstorms in the afternoon and depending on how much the atmosphere destablize from the warm frontal passage will be key in how strong they are.
Early call for Friday is a 1 on the thunderstorm index but that could easily change.
Once this last week of July ends, there will be only one more month (August) of meteorological summer…yaaay! 🙂 After those super hot temps of 100+ degrees, bring on fall…can’t come soon enough. I have to say that summer 2011 was much hotter than expected, much closer if not matching 2010.
Also, remind me to never complain about summer 2009 again…lol. 🙂
Hey Philip I feel the same way bring on fall after that heat wave last week. Some signs that were getting closer to fall are the days are getting shorter, and training camps are for NFL teams have started to open. Don’t worry summer fans there are plenty of great beach days left.
Another great summer day tomorrow then will be watching tomorrow for thunderstorms. As I said last night if the warm front could clear the area and we break out in sunshine ahead of the cold front the chances of strong to possibly severe storms increases. The storm prediction center has parts of SNE in the slight risk area and will see what happens when they update this around 1:30 pm today. So with all of this I think CT River Valley west has the best shot at the moment of seeing strong to possibly severe storms so a 2 for those areas and a 1 for everyone else. This is a tough call though.
Looks like parts of Texas could get some much needed rain with tropical storm Don.
I am not ready for Fall yet. 🙂 More Summer please!
Other than that stretch last week of high heat and humidity this summer has been a lot better than last. Hopefully I will be saying the same thing at the end of August.
We have not really seen a true Bermuda High yet…and I think one is in the not-too-distant future.
Tommorrow night there will be a slug of rain moving through, there could be severe weather. Most will get wet Friday night. Have a great night 🙂
I am thinking CT River Valley westward with the best shot at seeing strong to possibly severe storms. Heavy rain, vivid lightning, and damaging wind gusts look to be the big threats with any storms that go severe.
So Jimmy, are you thinking then that eastern sections of SNE will escape the severe storms once again, like this past Tuesday? Here in Boston we only received 0.01″ in a very brief shower. It got dark, but I have seen much darker skies.
Any tornados tomorrow? I hope not :/
I don’t think it’s a tornado kind of day. But we may see some severe storms Friday night.
This is a tough call because if the clouds hang tough it will limit the severe weather threat. Interesting in the NWS discussion I just read if enough destabilization were to happen a low chance of an isolated tornado for the CT River Valley. The storm prediction center has that area in the slight risk while eastern parts of SNE are in the general thunderstorm category
To me one thing that seems consistent is the POTENTIAL for heavy rainfall.
So here is what I am thinking and this could change and what makes forecasting fun.
Thunderstorm Index at a 2 for central and western parts of SNE since that seems to be the area where there could be severe weather. A 1 for the eastern parts of SNE.
Pretty early morning intensity to the thundershowers over the eastern Great Lakes. Wonder if that gives any hints as to the chances of storms having intensity in eastern New England without a lot of sun today. Happy Friday !!
I am not ready for fall yet either!!
I think the best shot of strong to severe storms will be western parts of SNE. I am thinking the clouds are going to hang tough today which should limit the severe weather threat.
So I’ll with a 2 for the western parts of SNE and a 1 for everyone else on the thunderstorm index.
Not much in the way of hurricane activity yet this year. I remember it got off to a late start last year. Though I do see that there this a very large Atlantic low developing.
Remember 2004 when there were no named storms in June and July and then bam the activity picked up and it turned out to be an above normal hurricane season which people of the state of Florida will not forget with Charley, Francis, Jeanne, and Ivan hitting the sunshine state that season.
We are by no means out of the woods for hurricanes until after September, which is the peak month especially for SNE.
Great point Philip. Were not even near the peak of the season. Its too bad most of the rain with tropical storm Don is going to miss Texas which really needs to it considering there are parts of that state in an exceptional drought.
JJ, you said 2004. I think 2005 was the BIG year. Also last year was very active, but as I said above it got off to a late start.
Your right Longshot. That year we went into the Greek Alaphabet for names and I believe there was still a named storm in December.
Looks like the severe weather will remain to the west and southwest of New England today as the clouds are not allowing the atmosphere to destablize.
Tried to be too optimistic about today’s sky cover, and tried to update via mobile but was not getting a connection so I’ll just be updating the entire blog in a few. 🙂