Thursday Forecast

108 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)
Forecast update.
Discussion added later.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated thunderstorms. Hazy. Humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 86-92 elewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Hazy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms late evening and overnight. Humid. Lows 68-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy with a risk of showers early morning, then mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lowering humidity. Highs 80-88. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs upper 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)
The start of the period will feature below normal temperatures and a risk of showers as low pressure hangs around and high pressure stays to the north. The middle to end of the period will feature a warming trend with dry weather. Late period expected warm and humid with showers/thunderstorms followed by drying again.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30-AUGUST 3)
Seasonably warm/drier early period, then increasing heat and humidity as high pressure tries to build off the East Coast. Isolated showers/thunderstorms later in the period.

108 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Very interested to see what happens tonight with regards to a potential MCS. Models have been all over the place and doing a generally poor job of forecasting the current weather makers across the country. Last night featured an impressive MCS (derecho?) across parts of the Midwest, which a lot of short range guidance missed. Today will be a day to watch short term model trends, but more importantly to watch radar trends in the Great Lakes region. Could be a whole lot of nothing or a midnight surprise. It’s not only does an MCS form, but if so, does it track over us or to the south?

  4. Thanks TK
    SPC has all of SNE in a marginal risk for thunderstorms. Will see if anything changes in the next update shortly before 9am.
    Here are the storm reports from yesterday with the system that could impact our weather tonight and you could see a lot of severe weather reports upper Midwest
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.html

    This will be a nowcasting situation as we get closer.

  6. Looking at the HRRR model there are some storms that fire in eastern areas this afternoon. The main cluster with the run wants to dive southeast towards western CT NYC area.

  7. SPC now expands marginal risk to include more of northern New England.
    My gut tells me this MCS dive southeast clips western parts of CT and goes into NYC area.

  8. Good morning and thank you for the update TK.

    WxWatcher thank you for your thoughts re: MCS

    DP wasn’t quite as high this morning. Was 62 when I got up and 65 when I left
    the house. Still plenty sticky.

  9. Thank you, TK. Nice breeze from NW this am. Wind was strong enough yesterday to go through the house on west side and cool deck on east side.

  11. Logan already up to 84 with dp 66 and a nice WSW land breeze. That can
    be a REALLY HOT wind direction. We shall see how high she goes.

    Logan made it to 93 yesterday in a brutal STINKER of a day. YUCK factor = 10

    1. Oh well, Logan wind has dropped off to 6 mph. Looks like a SEA BREEZE
      is about to arrive???

  12. Thank you.
    Wrapping up a two day visit to Woodstock VT. It has been nice up here. Got to the mid eighties tops.

  13. JPD….wind trying very hard to switch to a sea breeze. Feeble so far but I’m cheering it on.

  14. Logan 86, dp 66 with very light SW at 7 mph. Sea Breeze? I dunno. I would have thought that it would have shifted by now. 😀

    1. Shifting. It went from NW to ENE to ESE. It is gaining some strength. Patience, my dear friend. 🙂

        1. I wonder how many miles as crow flies I am from Logan. We are ESE at about 9 also. Still feeble compared to last several days, but it was after noontime that breeze strengthened yesterday

          1. I’m guessing 15 to 20 miles, if one took a boat from Humarock to Logan.

            Based on what I’ve observed, the seabreeze tends to kick in earlier down here than Logan, but, the late afternoon, early evening land breeze also returns earlier than Logan.

              1. I think a boat ride would get you there faster most days 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  15. HRRR and the 12Z 3km NAM still suggest thunderstorm activity in Eastern MA
    this afternoon. Both also show MSC moving well SW of the Boston Area
    later tonight.

  16. I think only western CT will get clipped by this MCS. The brunt stays west of CT and dives toward NYC area.

  17. I’m rather impressed how warm it has gotten this morning, considering the fair amount of cirrus leftover from thunderstorms to our west. The sunlight has that magnifying glass feeling this morning.

      1. It doesn’t at first glance, but because it’s reached the edge of the 500mb ridge well to the southwest, I’d expect to see more of an ESE then SE movement. On the other hand, I think the combo of the disturbance, the vicinity of what quadrant of the jet stream we’ll be under and the heat/humidity sitting over southern New England may be able to develop showers/storms to the north and northeast side of this storm complex.

  20. Marginal risk now expanded and includes all of New England Only areas not in marginal risk parts of the Cape and eastern coastal areas of Northern Maine.
    Already this cluster of storms prompting severe thunderstorm warnings Rochester Buffalo areas and a tornado warning southeast of Buffalo. That storm with the tornado warning moving east at 40mph. Tornado warned storm right where SPC has that 2% tornado chance.

  24. That western NY stormed that looks like it spawned the tornado southeast of Buffalo now being tornado warned again.

  27. JPDave Ryan Hanrahan tweeted that it was one of the biggest most impressive tornado debris signature I have seen in the northeastern US which is saying something. Looking at the photo I posted earlier on the blog and some of the other ones I have seen it looks like EF1 damage although I am certainly no expert when it comes to that.

    1. I could only view your tweet link on my mobile device, so It was hard to tell.
      From what I could see, it resembled the damage from the Revere EF2.
      (By the way, the radial velocity display looked very similar as well. I do not
      have a copy on this desktop) let me see IF I can find it in the archives and we can compare the 2 images. 😀

      But it is very difficult to tell from that one photo.

  31. Impressive storm for the northeast. This storm had a debris ball signature with it and we don’t usually have that with these tornado warned storms in the northeast. The Springfield Tornado is other tornado I could remember seeing a debris ball signature.

    1. Looks like there is another possibly rotating storm out west
      of Binghamton, NY. Not as strong as the Buffalo one at this time.
      We shall see. Storm looks vicious on radar.

  37. The Buffalo area tornado was one of the more impressive radar signatures I’ve seen, anywhere. I’m actually a little surprised the damage isn’t worse.

    1. Sometimes the best “looking” part of the storm is just a few hundred feet above the ground.

      1. Could’ve been the case here. The radar was sampling pretty low to the ground, and the gate-to-gate shear was close to 100kts at one point if I recall it correctly, I’ll have to go back and do a more detailed look. A tornado touched down of course, but it looks like the worst of that rotation may have stayed just above the surface.

        1. I believe that is the case. My friend / storm chaser is currently at the damage site.

  38. Impressive storm for northeast and had a debris ball signature with it. This is first time I saw a debris ball signature with a storm since Springfield tornado.
    SREF model nailed it highlighting this area for potential tornadic activity.

  40. I will be curious based on the radar images and pictures what the rating will be for this tornado or was there more than one that touched down.

  41. Two tornadoes in close proximity to one another confirmed by NWS Buffalo. Preliminary ratings are an EF2 and an EF1. About what I was expecting based on the pictures I’ve seen. Max path width of 700 yards on the EF2 is pretty impressive.

    https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201707202344-KBUF-NOUS41-PNSBUF

    As we’ve seen, the bulk of the MCS that moved out of the Lakes earlier today has passed well to our south, south of NYC even, and what’s left of it is pushing offshore now, so the timing was a few hours quicker than anticipated. Mid-level dry air did us in here. These MCS events are “intelligent”; they move where the best dynamics are. Over the Lakes, they were on a trajectory right towards us. But all the best dynamics beyond there were to our south, so as they reached Buffalo the existing storms turned hard southeast and additional development occurred exclusively on the southern side of the cluster.

    2. Did they ever. It surely looked like they were coming this way.
      I guess there was a RIGHT TURN ONLY sign.

  42. Weak outflow boundary from thunderstorms developing over Boston Harbor making its way down the south shore.

  44. I’m heading up to Winnipesaukee for a week starting tomorrow. Does anyone have an idea when the rainy periods will be? I’m hearing Monday to Tuesday morning but not sure if it will rain that entire time. We are also going up the cog and I am guessing Wednesday would be the right day for that. Any feed back would be appreciated.

    1. Based on reading the Gray, ME NWS discussion, you seem to be right in line with their thinking.

      Sunday, Monday and Tuesday look inclement with improvement Wednesday. That’s the idea currently anyway.

  45. Hi all!
    Apologizes again that today’s update will be around 3PM. Hopefully this won’t be the case too often after today. Been very tied up with some projects and mom has been sick (she’s improving quickly now).

    Not seeing too many changes for the upcoming update…
    Clouds start to roll in at times Saturday but they’ll be fighting mid level dry air so they won’t solidify until sometime at night, and then on Sunday there is a bit of a question as to how far north the rain will be from the initial system. Models don’t do well with these even a couple days away because they are often born of MCS events and just the simple placement of an outflow boundary from a small line of thunderstorms early in their development can make a few hundred mile difference in the ultimate track of the rain from the system.

    Best bets for wet are Monday into Tuesday.

    I really like how it looks for the rest of next week, in general.

    More later…

    Carry on here and I’ll update mid afternoon!

      1. Do you think we will see the ridge in the west and trough in the east generally this winter?

        1. Hard to really know pattern specifics at this point but should be the general idea for Winter 17-18.

    1. Funny, I was just thinking yesterday that I can’t wait for the days when I am checking the blog every 30 seconds for updates on pending snow storms. 🙂

        1. TK, you misunderstand.

          NOT doubting your early take on Winter.

          I was responding the JJ’s comment about a White
          Christmas. And I stand by my comment. I’ll believe a white Christmas when I see it, whether your thoughts
          on Winter verify or not. 😀

    3. Something in the air this morning ????

      My youngest daughter likes to fish and I woke up to my wife showing her pictures of ice fishing, you are all talking about snow …

      Did I hibernate for 5 months ?? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

      1. How old is she?

        That’s special. I took my daughter fishing a few times, but
        she didn’t really have any interest and later, neither did my son.

        From time-to-time, my wife enjoys it. 😀

        1. She’s 8. Has a lot of success, will cast and fish for hours. We are still trying to encourage her to be able to take the fish off of the hook herself. We or a friend she makes has to do it for her 🙂 🙂 🙂

          2. My wife will NOT bait the hook NOR will she take it off. When we fish, I often spend 1/2 of my time baiting her hook and removing fish from her hook.
            But that’s ok. I love it. I love to see her catch fish, especially the bigger ones.

            I can’t imagine the joy of watching your daughter fish. How did she get hooked on that (sorry, couldn’t resist)?

            1. Camping. She saw others fishing and we bought her a fishing rod and tackle box and she continues to love it

  48. Another glorious morning with a lovely light breeze from NW. I don’t know about inland, but yesterday was quite comfortable and nowhere near as humid as the day before.

    1. Yesterday was pretty brutal in my mind. YUCK!
      Today, there was a noticable difference. DP 59 when I got up.

  49. Sue the way time flies by those days you talked about will be here before you know it.
    Don’t agree with the SPC placing southern CT and southern RI in marginal risk. I don’t think were in play for MCS tomorrow night. I would shift that marginal risk just south of NYC and Long Island and have the slight risk Northern Mid Atlantic. Will see if an adjustment comes around 1:30pm.

  50. Anticipation of model error has lead me to believe that Sunday will be drier over a larger portion of the region. The 06z GFS got closer to this idea after many wetter runs. We’ll see if this was a model run hiccup or the 12z continues this idea.

  51. I wonder if this overall pattern will create an opportunity for a washed out cold front and its associated thunderstorm activity to develop into something tropical off the SE coastline or in the Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of weeks.

    With the persistent northeast trof, there should be opportunity for cold fronts to make it further south than usual …..

  52. I’m guessing there’s some smoke in the high atmosphere today from western wild fires. The sky seems hazy.

  53. Feeling slightly more confident we get through the entire weekend pretty much rain-free in all areas with the exception of possibly extreme southwestern areas.

  54. Are both Monday and Tuesday washouts? Not that I have any big plans other than running the usual errands but just wondering.

  55. 12z GFS on the juicy side with some of the severe parameters for my part of CT on Monday. Believe it when I see it.

  56. Totally disagree with the updated outlook for tomorrow from SPC putting southern CT and southern RI in marginal risk. Were not in on this MCS. Move the marginal risk to just south of NYC and keep slight right southern NJ to D.C. although looking at the 12z NAM in that corridor I mentioned would not be surprised an enhanced risk.

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