3:20PM
We’re paying in advance for a fantastic summer weekend. Not that today’s been all that bad so far, just cloudy. But the muggies are back for the day and tonight, along with a threat of showers and thunderstorms. The good news is that the lack of sunshine and a south wind (more stabilizing than a southwest wind in eastern MA) will limit the chances for severe storms. There will still be some storms around, and they may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and even frequent lightning (though that would be isolated and likely brief), in some locations tonight. But all of this activity should be offshore by morning and the weekend looks great, as high pressure dominates. Saturday will be the hotter of the 2 days, though Sunday will still be quite warm but with some coastal sea breezes keeping the beaches very nice. A great way to end the month of July!
Typical mid summer weather is on tap for the first few days of August. More about August soon.
Updated Boston Area Forecast…
THROUGH EVENING: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Temperature holding 75-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH gusting to 20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms may produce heavy rain and gusty winds. Low 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH, more variable with stronger gusts near storms, shifting to W by dawn.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High 85-90. Wind NW 10-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 65-70. Wind N 5-10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 82-87. Wind N 5-10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.
MONDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 89.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 86.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 67. High 88.
THURSDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 85.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 83.
Severe Thunderstorm Watch right up to the boarder of CT and MA until 11:00om. The clouds saved us today.
Updated Thunderstorm Index is now a 1 since I don’t see severe weather for us. The only areas where there a chance and to me is a low chance for a severe storm is extreme western parts of SNE.
That should say 11:00pm not 11:00om
Trying to determine whether I should even bother with Shakespeare on the Common tonight at 8pm – Anyone have any thoughts?
If you’re brave, bring an umbrella and plan an escape route if lightning becomes a threat. I say it’s pretty much a coin flip as to whether or not you get through that event without at least getting wet.
Thanks to the mostly cloudy skies today I was finally able to get in some summer yardwork. I have a lot to do so I just take one section of my yard at a time. With the high humidity it would have been even more uncomfortable working had it been even “partly” sunny. Certainly for those at the beach or at a picnic today was probably quite dissapointing with the gloomy skies, but today was perfect for being outside working as I was most of the afternoon. I would actually like a few more of these “gloomy” days for summer yardwork, but not too many, of course. 🙂
I am keeping my fingers crossed that August will feature a bit lower temps and humidity…not necessarily “fall” conditions but perhaps early-mid September conditions. Probably a lot to ask for.
That cloud cover prevented severe weather from moving into SNE today. Areas just to the west of us in the Hudson River Valley had severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings.
I was reading Brett Anderson’s blog and the week of August 8th is projected to be cooler than normal for New England.
Thanks for the info Jimmy! Keeping my fingers crossed that Brett Anderson’s prediction comes true. 🙂
Actually thinking about it, it is probably somewhat unusual to have a mostly cloudy day in the summer w/o at least a few glimpses of sun. In terms of sky cover, it seemed more like November, but with normal late July temps.
Those clouds just did not break today. The clear skies got up to the NYC area area but never could push westward into SNE.
Your right about November and those cloudy days. The only thing good about November is Thanksgiving. Once the foliage is over and I am able to clean up the yard I am ready for the snow since its so bare out there with the leaves off the trees.
Hi, weather geniuses! Haven’t been on here in while for many reasons but I hope you don’t mind if I ask for your help. I’m in St. Thomas for a wedding and saw on the news last night that a tropical disturbance in the mid-Atlantic is threatening to become Tropical Storm Emily and could pose a direct threat to the Caribbean. The Internet is very slow and touchy so I’ve had trouble finding out too much about it. Does anyone care to take a stab at this? My flight back to Boston is supposed to be Wednesday. All the wedding guests are a little nervous as we’re in a beachfront location. Thanks so much if any of you can take a look at this!
Christie… JJ’s reply below is one I agree with after looking over the maps myself. Late Monday-Tuesday is the target timeframe. Should be gone before Wednesday scheduled flight. You did not mention which day the wedding is but I assume it’s this weekend (?). Should be fine!
I hope you are able to chat with us more regularly again soon!
That wave has become better organized and has a 70% chance of becoming a depression. It is projected to move west northwestward at 15-20 mph. This could change direction as I always say these tropical systems have minds of their own.
Areas including the Central and Northern Lesser Antilles should monitor this as they would be first in line for impacts and I would expect that in the Monday Tuesday timeframe. I hope this helps.
Here locally a great weekend is on tap. Thunderstorm Index at a 0 since I am not expecting thunderstorm development. This could change on Monday as the SPC has us in a slight risk area for severe weather. This does not look like a big severe weather outbreak at this time.
I am a big fan of the Environmental Canada Temperature Outlook Maps. I think they have shown exceptional accuracy in their outlooks. For the last several weeks, they have had New England in above normal temperature outlooks and for the most part, I think we’ve seen above normal temps. The last few days or so, and today’s outlook continues this trend, the outlook pegs New England for normal temps and has a below normal area in the Canadian Maritimes, maybe pegging an upper level low sitting there underneath a ridge in Greenland in the upcoming forecasted strongly negative NAO. After the next 4 to 6 days, maybe cooler times ahead.
I think this may be where their accuracy takes a bit of a hit. Not disagreeing with the normal temps, but I think we are going to see a western Atlantic ridge end up a little stronger than progged. Enough retrogression of this feature and it’s Bermuda High time.
Hi TK.
Thanks, it will be interesting to watch. Bermuda High pattern in August-September always an interesting mix with the tropics.
Tom, those Bermuda Highs have been known to steer hurricanes up the east coast toward SNE…hopefully this will not happen this year. I believe there is an actual “sweet spot” for them in the Atlantic much like our 40/70 benchmark for winter storms but not exactly sure the location.
Hi Philip.
Yes and I don’t know where the sweet spot is either. I think there was a retreating Bermuda High last year when Earl steered to our south and east.
New England’s danger location is for hurricanes that are just east of the Bahamas, moving NW around the western edge of a ridge, with south southwest flow along the East Coast and a trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
And we almost never get full warm core hurricanes up here. They are almost always in extratropical transition with very fast forward speed. There are a few exceptions, of course.
Soon-to-be Emily looks to have the best chance of being the first “serious” tropical system so far. Too bad Don couldn’t deliver badly needed rain for Texas. I suspect that the tropics will give them rain aplenty at some point before summer ends. I can’t recall any of the Gulf States escaping totally from the tropics in any given summer regardless of activity level.
I was very disappointed in TWC last night, prioritizing Don over Metro NYC severe weather. For any of you who are friends with me on FB, you probably saw my rant if you have been online.
TK – you noticed that too! I saw the tornado warnings in NYC and when I put on TWC I was waiting for some coverage of the storms in NY. Frankly I was kind of surprised. I just wonder why would they do that?
Seems the “prospect” of an Emily has strengthened a little further this afternoon. Closer to an 80% chance that it wil become a tropical storm.
It appears 89F may be today’s high temp at Logan……. 1F…. 🙂
What a weekend to say the least. Just perfect in my books.
The chance of a direct hit in NE is so remote as far as I am concerned. The water temps just suck the juice out of them if they even get close. It’s a rare occurrence to even have one in the vicinity that is not in a weakend state.
I would be curious as to what the water temps were during the summer of 1938. That hurricane had the perfect track and then just slammed into SNE with no weakening. I believe hurricanes Gloria (1985) and Bob (1991) weakened down one “category” from its intial strength.
As for Emily, I believe that she should be watched…
90% chance of this tropical system to become a depression. Interestingly enough and I put zero stock in this but The Farmers’ Almanac between the 1st-3rd of August is calling for a tropical system to threaten Cape Cod and Maine. We shall see.
I saw some comments about the severe weather yesterday. I went to the NWS page and there was a confirmed EF 1 tornado in Goshen, NY which is in Orange county. It had winds between 90-100 mph.
I am thanful those clouds saved us from big storms yesterday.
This is what may become Emily, looks well organized on inferred satellite.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_east.gif
Where have you been kid- nice to see you posting.
Hadi, I think in general the probability of a hit to the mainland is low for any hurricane, let alone NE.
TK and Jimmy, thanks for giving me a personalized look at Invest 91L! The wedding went off without a hitch this evening but we’re sticking around a few more days for sightseeing and such… Hope this Emily is kind to us here in the Virgin Islands! (Is it wrong to be a little excited?!)
You have it in you, Christie. Be excited, even if you don’t tell anyone about it (well, except your weather friends of course). 🙂
No problem Christie. Enjoy the rest of your stay down there and have a safe trip home.
Another great summer day is on tap for today. Tomorrow is the day to watch for the POTENTIAL for some thunderstorm development. The storm prediction center continues to have us in the slight risk for severe weather. Its looks downpours, vivid lightning, gusty winds, and maybe some hail will be the big threats.
So with all of this I am going with a 2 on the thunderstorm index which is MODERATE since there is a threat for some severe weather.