Thursday Forecast

40 Comments

8:22AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)
No changes from yesterday’s discussion. Warm/humid for the next 3 days, isolated showers/storms today-Friday, better chance Saturday as a front arrives from the west. High pressure brings great weather Sunday, low pressure approaches and brings unsettled weather by later Monday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH but some east coastal sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light S.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 78-83 South Coast, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH but some east coastal sea breezes.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers or rain late. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)
Cooler and unsettled briefly August 8 as a trough swings through, then the larger scale pattern tries to take back over with more humidity and warmer weather.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)
Overall similar pattern, typical for August, but still may have to contend with some passing troughs from the west at times as the old pattern tries to come back at times.

40 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

  2. Repost from Wednesday forecast

    I think we have a trifecta today….or is it a perfecta

    Happy birthday, rainshine, JPDave and my youngest grand on her first birthday, Rilyn Mac. May you all have a perfect day and year to follow.

    And, JPD, you are correct – it is Brady’s bday also which of course thrilled my son in law.

  4. Tom says:
    August 3, 2017 at 8:53 AM
    Happy Birthday to all 🙂 🙂 🙂

    Hope the camping trip is super Hadi !

    Not a drop up here either :), but it sure has gotten humid.

    00z GFS having a Hugo flashback.

    Oooops, posted this on Wednesday update. Thanks TK !!!!!!

  5. Thanks TK
    Happy birthday to rainshine JPDave and to your grandchild Vicki!
    Looks look a weather breather today after some areas get hit by those storms yesterday.
    6z runs of American models showing good parameters for Saturday but of course the 6z runs you take with a grain of salt. Currently SPC has parts of SNE in a marginal risk for Saturday.

    1. Just above the Brookfields and not too far from me. Well, probably as far from me as you are in JP so I guess that is silly to say 🙂

      Have a great time.

  8. A little Red Sox note about how unlucky Rick Porcello has been this season.

    For those that aren’t familiar with the term “Quality Start”, it’s a basic stat for pitchers. A Quality Start is defined as one where the starting pitcher lasts 7 innings or more and allows 3 earned runs or fewer.

    According to the Red Sox PR department, Porcello has been tagged with a loss in a Quality Start 9 times this season, which is the most in the majors. No other Red Sox pitcher has had that many losses in Quality Starts in one season since 1930.

  9. There is a very slight discrepancy in the time of the last 8:00 pm sunset between timeanddate.com and NWS. Which is more accurate?

    timeanddate.com = today
    NWS = tomorrow

  11. The last of the ice accumulation under my front shrubs JUST melted, nearly 24 hours after the hail storm. It was literally about 6″ deep in front of the house as all the hail hitting the house and bouncing off the roof was collecting there.

    The hail pile my son shoveled on the deck is still there as well and down to about a foot high.

    1. Mark those were great pics you posted yesterday. We don’t usually hail where we have to shovel it and this was not the first time this happened this summer. The other back on June 27th.
      Will see about Saturday as the 12z runs of American models are showing enough instability for some strong storms. I think this front may come through a bit faster and we don’t destabilize enough for bigger storms.

  12. Thank you, TK…How are you feeling today?

    Happy Birthday to all those celebrating today!

  14. Did Tornado Ted join NWS out of Upton, NY. This for Saturday.
    There should be good llvl directional shear ahead of the front, particularly invof the ct river valley. If sfc based tstms do get going, perhaps some spinups possible.

  16. Thanks for the well wishes! I’ve been feeling great today. Went to Hampton Beach, walked the entire beach, the entire jetty, the entire beach again, played frisbee and outlasted 2 teenage boys at it…walked some more, then played some arcade games.

    It’s crazy nuts up there in the summer but I don’t seek peace and quiet very often. That is really my happy place. 🙂

    Oh and the weather was FAB!

  17. Thank you all for birthday wishes. It’s been a great day. Picking up pizza now. Went fishing this pm. I knew it would not rain, although some vinyl is towered some and I thought it might rain. It did not.

  19. Been playing around with imgur.com and I believe I have posted my first photo on it ever.

    I share it with y’all…

    http://imgur.com/WOmss5q

    I set up my SLR on the deck with my remote control shutter next to the hummingbird feeder to capture this.

    Let me know if you got it and if I am using imgur.com correctly.

      1. Thanks! Technology doesn’t come that easily for me most of the time. I am glad it worked. Since I am on a lucky streak, I should go out and buy a Mega Millions ticket.

        1. Will you buy one for me too. If you get confused as to which one belongs to me, it’ll be easy to figure out. The winning one…of course 🙂

  21. Tornado Ted mentioning in the discussion a low risk for brief tornado tomorrow.
    low level shear combined with dew pts in the 60s to near 70 and fairly low LCLs and the presence of a low level boundary/front increases the risk (albeit low) for a brief tornado Sat. The risk is low as many mesoscale processes have to come together but the large scale environment is somewhat favorable.

  22. models are starting to hint at one of the waves off of Africa developing of course the EURO is not showing it.

        1. well, the gfs and cmc for sure. Remember the TK warning
          regarding GFS and tropical systems?

          Let’s give it some time and we shall see.

          However, the HWRF hurricane model shows it pretty
          well. SO who knows. something to watch

          https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf-p/2017080400/hwrf-p_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

          the other hurricane model (HMON) shows it as an innocuous system.

          https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon-para/2017080400/hmon-para_mslp_wind_99L_43.png

          what happened to the GFDL model?

            1. Until a system actually develops, ALL of the models suck. Once there’s something out there that they can initialize, then they start to do better. For now, it’s nothing but pure fantasy.

Comments are closed.