Friday Forecast

100 Comments

10:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)
The overall pattern of ridge off Atlantic Coast, mean trough Midwest/Great Lakes will continue though a front will push eastward from the trough through the region Saturday, and increase out isolated shower/storm activity of today to a greater risk of more areas seeing at least a passing shower/storm or two during Saturday. A bubble of high pressure will bring great weather for Sunday and then a wave of low pressure ejecting from the trough will return some unsettled weather to the region later Monday and early Tuesday based on current timing.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible but will favor areas well west and north of Boston. Humid. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms but one or two broken to solid lines of showers/storms may cross the region from west to east between noon and early evening. Humid. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Risk of showers/storms early. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 76-84. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)
Same general pattern allows warmth and humidity to become re-established along with occasional opportunities for showers/storms.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)
Similar pattern expected to continue through mid month. As always we will need to eye the tropics for systems should anything approach the East Coast.

100 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Not too excited about the overall strength of the storms tomorrow. Something ain’t right with the NAM’s 12z run.

  2. Good morning again and thank you TK.

    Re-post

    HRRR contrary to NWS thinking (which is probably correct) wants to fire
    convection in Eastern MA around 2-3PM. Sure! I’ll believe it when I see it.

    http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/HRRR/2017080413/NE/HRRRNE_prec_radar_005.png

    Waiting on next run to see if it goes POOF.

    Tk based on your update, you basically agree with NWS. Convection in Eastern
    sections, although “possible”, not likely. What do you make of our friendly
    HRRR????

  3. Thank you, TK.

    Europe is in the midst of a major heatwave, with temperatures expected to hit 43C in Rome (~110F). This particular heatwave is centered around South Central Europe.

    In the U.S., the Pacific Northwest is also experiencing lots of heat, from Portland to Seattle.

    From what I can gauge it doesn’t look like heatwaves are in our immediate future. That could of course change.

    1. Yikes…high for Rome based on what Mac has told me. I do love how they naturally deal with heat – high ceilings, lots of marble floors, and shutters to close on the sunny side of the home.

  8. radar getting active, however, Western sections only for now and maybe that will be
    the only area.

      1. Me thinks the HRRR is full of CRAP re: convection for
        Eastern sections. So much so, I can smell it from here. 😀

  10. Sak i was just stating an observation with the morning model runs. No need to say it is crap. You don’t have to state the obvious. You will probably be repeating that phrase non-stop late fall through winter. Anyways gfs and Canadian and a few other hurricane models shows the wave off of africa’s west coast developing into a tropical storm ot stronger. Euro does have it but it remains weak. Its out there and fun to monitor and see how it unfolds

    1. I was also stating an observation. The models are ALL crap when it comes to tropical systems that have not formed yet.

        1. It’s a weak area of low pressure which the models can’t initialize properly, therefore, they can’t forecast it properly. In other words, they are crap. Is this really that tough to understand?

          1. From NHC:

            “A tropical wave extends from 09N29W to 17N33W moving W at 5-10
            kt. The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 30W-38W with
            a stretched maximum in 850 mb relative vorticity focused on a
            1012 mb low centered at the southern extent of the wave near
            09N29W. Another nearby surface low at 1010 mb is to the east
            analyzed along the monsoon trough near 10N26W.”

            There’s 2 weak lows in the same area. Until they consolidate, the models won’t have the 1st clue as to what is going to happen.

          2. everyone on here who post weather model info understands that. everything past 5 days is really inaccurate specially with tropical systems we do not need you to state the obvious. You are going to be a broken record late fall and winter. We posting models left and right

            1. And right now everything past 5 hours is crap with the models. The 00z GFS has the eastern Atlantic system down to 1008 mb already. As I just posted, it’s not. If you know how bad they are, why keep posting them and talking about them? There’s a reason why TK and I never do that. We know better. Yes, we’ll joke about them privately, because we know it’s just that, a joke. It’s things like this that give meteorologists a bad reputation. Someone who doesn’t know better sees a model prediction on the internet, and they tell their friends or post on Facebook about it, and all of a sudden, the internet is ablaze with posts about the massive hurricane that’s going to wipe out the East Coast next week. Then, when it doesn’t happen, people say “those meteorologists were wrong again”, when none of them actually said anything. If you were truly as knowledgeable as you claim to be, then you wouldn’t be talking about what some of the models are doing with a system that hasn’t even formed yet.

              1. I get what you’re both saying but I’m sorry, I gotta agree with my Matt on this one. We are all intelligent enough to know the difference between what a model shows in the future and what will actually happen regardless of how crappy the model is or outrageous the outcome of that particular run is. Give us a little more credit than that. And if this is no longer going to be a place where we can freely post model runs and discuss without ridicule and shame, than I’m not sure this is the place for me anymore, and I’m sure others would agree. I enjoy reading mostly and posting once and a while when the weather gets crazy and I find every piece of info interesting regardless of where it comes from or if it “makes sense.” If this is going to be a place where just absolute certainties are discussed and its just a “forecast” with little to no discussion from us common folk who love weather, than i gotta be honest, it will be a very boring place to visit.

              2. We are not going to stop posting models. Here, we all take them with a grain of salt. We know, trust me we know.

                let it go. 😀

  11. Marginal risk expanded further south tomorrow to include now most of SNE with the exception of the Cape and lower Fairfield County in CT.

  12. Up by Hampton tolls, approaching from the north on route 95. Seeing clusters of cumulus clouds ahead to our southwest. Couple tops nosing higher into the sky.
    Route 95 north is packed for many, many miles.

    1. Cell just popped at junction of 95 and 128 north Of Boston.

      Wonder if that is what you are seeing.

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.2391304347826087&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=320.54545454545473&centery=436.5454545454546&transx=-79.45454545454527&transy=196.54545454545462&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25031214&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      1. Neat ! We’re now at the cloverleaf, so it’s behind us. But we did pass a dark cloud base not too long ago. 🙂

  13. I would be a little more concerned tomorrow if that front was coming through mid to late afternoon and allowing for the atmosphere to destabilize even more. The earlier timing won’t allow the atmosphere to fully destabilize which lowers the risk of strong to severe storms

  14. Thanks TK. Back home in Wrentham after a very fun week in the DC area.

    Tomorrow is an interesting setup. There’s a lot of variability among the mesoscale guidance as to where, if anywhere, we may see storms in SNE tomorrow late morning-afternoon. I wouldn’t expect many severe storms given the lack of instability. The biggest thing to watch for will be that low end risk of a tornado. It certainly bears resemblances to prior tornado events. Warm season rule of thumb, if you have a closed upper low somewhere between the Lakes and the southern Hudson Bay, especially given strong jet dynamics, you can’t ignore the risk. It’s all conditional though. We’ll just have to wait and see, and keep an eye on radar.

  15. As to the tropics, it’s really important to understand SAK’s point that the models really are borderline useless before a tropical depression forms. Nothing wrong with posting them IMO, but I think sometimes we say we’ll take models with a grain of salt without actually doing it. Yesterday the models were all getting very bullish on both systems of interest in the Atlantic. Today they’ve backed off big time on both. For local interests specifically, the Caribbean system, “Invest 90L”, will not be an issue for us regardless. The wave closer to Africa, “Invest 99L”, bears some watching, but is many days away from having any potential to be a threat. Right now, it’s highly unimpressive.

  16. From NWS out of Taunton
    In addition, a suggestion of a possible wave along the front may
    enhance low level helicity values in a low lifting condensation
    level (LCL) environment. Hence, we cannot rule out the risk of a
    tornado or two, especially if any discrete rotating cells should
    be observed

    I wonder if the SREF is highlighting any part of SNE tomorrow for possible tornado development. If that does then I take notice.

  17. I’m done.

    Since it’s pretty obvious that my opinions and experience aren’t valued, I’ll refrain from posting them any more. I’ve got better ways to spend my time than posting on here. I’ll keep reading TK’s forecast every day, as it makes a good double-check for me, but I’m not going to bother with the comment section any more.

    1. Aw, don’t let him run you off. He ran me off for awhile, but I figured why let a kid get to me. I just skip over posts by certain people and my life is much simpler here. Let it go and ignore a couple people and keep posting.

      Charlie got banned from here, and that’s the blog owner choice. But 90% of the problems now are casused by someone else at this point, as I see it.
      There’s a reason some long time posters aren’t here anymore, or at least post very rarely. And it ain’t cause Charlie ran them of either.

      1. As we know, everyone is certainly entitled to an opinion. Mine differs slightly. Rather than using lightly veiled innuendos, agree with him or not, you gotta admire the fact that the “kid” has the courage and maturity to address the individual he disagrees with.

    2. Hi SAK,

      That’s to bad. I enjoyed reading your blogs and comments. I agree if someone writes something you don’t agree with let it go and skip it.

    2. So sad. My husband and I are amateur radio operators and in the mid-80’s Dick Albert came to a meeting at the Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency in Framingham. We met him there when he spoke, along with other meteorologists at the time. Bruce Schwoegler, Harvey Leonard and maybe someone else – can’t remember. We belonged to the Framingham Amateur Radio Asssociation. It was a long time ago but I remember Dick as being very nice. I am not active in amateur radio anymore(still have my license, ‘though) but my husband still is.

      1. I said just a short time ago that, as much as I always loved weather, way back before mac and I were even married we’d watch Dick and his excitement would just translate through the screen. I would have loved to have met him. How exciting for you, rainshine.

  20. I grew up watching Dick and till this day it’s why I always watch 5 I grew up with it.

  21. So sad to hear about Dick Albert. I’m a little young to remember him in his prime, but I had the privilege of meeting him a couple years ago. One of the all time greats.

  23. Stop harassing SAK or we loose this blog . Enough is enough . If you don’t like it here and can’t behave go elsewhere.

      1. Sue I’m not getting into it. He does this for a living it’s not a hobby to him . He’s here because he is extremely good buddies with TK. Do you think TK is going to continue to allow this . I don’t think some folks like his style and they challenge it often . Why because he tells it like it is . Tk came extremely close to suspending this blog after the last episode . Is this what folks want because I depend on this information. I’m extremely disappointed coming here today and seeing more crap . Enough is enough .

      2. Agree. It is clear SAK and Matt don’t enjoy each other’s posts, so they should skip over them.

        1. I been avoiding posting on a few peoples stuff including sak, he commented, I responded to what he said to my comment, end of story. Some of us are trying to point out that when we are posting a weather model on here we are not forecasting what it is showing we are just showing something that is way down the road and something to watch and have fun with, this is a weather blog. We were able to post models and it not being an issue until certain people came along. So like someone said above, Let it go, Let it go. Soon enough this blog will be lighting up like a Christmas tree come late fall 🙂

          1. PS, you will know when I am serious about a storm possibility when you start seeing my maps. 🙂

  24. I enjoyed watching Dick Albert when I was going to college. He seemed to me like a great guy with a lot of a passion for the weather.

  26. Beautiful night camping. Some storms were nearby earlier around 2 pm but never hit us in Oakham. Hoping tomorrow isn’t too bad.

  27. Saw a coyote crossing Rt. 1 by the Faulkner Hospital in Jamaica Plain and run
    into the Arnold Arboretum. Way too close to my house for comfort.

        2. And the would only attack humans if rabid. In general they would not bother humans. I suppose in rare circumstances where no other food was available, it could be possible, but in general, nope.

          Even bats and squirrels could be rabid, although not very often.

    2. We have coyotes, coydogs, coywolves wander by our house fairly regularly. They ignore us. We have a new family of foxes in woods behind our house. I can hear the young ones crying. The Dog went after one adult last evening. Fortunately, he listened to my SIL and came back when called. We also seem to have a resident bobcat. I would love to see him .

    1. My niece is here from CA….San Francisco area…although currently living in DC. She never visits Boston without going to a game at Fenway. The park fascinates her. She will be there tonight also, scott77. I hope for fair weather for you both.

  33. We’re on our sailboat in Newport Harbor, with a plan to head east to Cuttyhunk. I’m thinking that we should perhaps wait for this front with the thunderstorms to pass… what’s expected for winds from this? Timing?

    1. Here is where the action is now. Not all that far from Newport.

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25032280&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      This batch shouldn’t take all that long to pass through, a few hours at most.

      “could” be more develop after this, but you may have a window.

      This is just me. I am NOT a met, so I defer to TK. Just showing you what’s
      happening now.

      re: winds
      Could be some gusty winds embedded in those showers.

  34. Absolutely pouring here. We are hiding in a main tent. Is this the main line of storms or anything come afterwards?

    2. Raining here too but just started. We are southeast of you tho. Hope it goes through your area quickly.

  35. SAK’s brutally honest. I appreciate that. Matt’s a smart, burgeoning scientist with some ideals about our environment. I appreciate that. Let’s all please get along, or at least learn to live and let live.

    If there’s one lesson I learned from my experiencing living for several decades in the Netherlands it was the attitude of “live and let live.” The Dutch are tolerant of others, NOT because they agree with them (they often don’t, and sometimes want nothing to do with others who don’t share their worldview), but because it’s an optimal way for a civil society to function. Note, it’s a pragmatic take on how to deal with our differences, and not one grounded in idealism.

    On a different topic, RIP Dick Albert. he brought enthusiasm to the business of forecasting.

      1. For today. It is valid today 13Z (9AM) to tomorrow 12Z (8AM),
        but in reality it is probably good now through about 7 or 8PM, imo only.

        1. Thanks JPD. Niece visiting concerns me some. She is driving here now from Brookline for a visit for a few hours. She is not familiar with the area. I’ll keep,an eye here.

  37. From NWS

    7 AM update…

    Not much change from previous forecast. Already starting to see
    weak wave developing in the surface observations on the front
    over the Lower Hudson Valley southward into NYC with cyclonic
    swirl in the wind field. This will enhance the low level
    helocity. However severity of storms will hinge on instability.
    Best chance of any breaks of sunshine this morning is across RI
    and eastern MA, which is already being observed. Despite the
    lack of solar heating today, dew pts climbing into the low and
    perhaps mid 70s will provide at least modest capes. Will just
    have to watch how this unfolds hour by hour. Earlier discussion
    below.

    1. I could be wrong, but to me this means the “chance” for a possible spin up
      would be more convection this afternoon sometime after this 1st batch moves off.

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