Sunday Forecast

28 Comments

11:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)
I’ve had my difficulty figuring out what is a simple pattern lately. Still the same overall idea but a few adjustments. The overall pattern is for high pressure off the Atlantic Coast but on the weaker side, allowing the mean trough in the Great Lakes to eject disturbances that cross the Northeast, the next of which will be further south than the one before it, putting southern New England on the cool side and lining up the region for significant rain later Monday to early Tuesday. A stronger ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the western USA and the jet stream is north of this and sending pieces of Pacific energy and moisture along toward the Great Lakes trough. Some may think this pattern is more like winter, but it’s not. It’s a summer pattern we have seen many times, and a whole lot wetter a pattern than last year at this time, as the lush vegetation will remind you. However, you may have noticed some early leaf drop, particularly in maples. This is post-drought stress, a normal reaction, and the trees will recover from it. Now, onto the updated forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 76-83. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 58-65. Wind W shifting to S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of rain arrive during the afternoon. Highs 72-78. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely, heavy at times. Slight risk of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 62-68. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts from southern NH to northern MA, variable to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts southern MA, CT, and RI.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with any rain ending in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)
Same general pattern, weak high pressure to the east, weak trough in the Great Lakes sending occasional disturbances into the Northeast. Current timing suggests the greatest chance for showers/storms comes later in this period which will otherwise be largely rain-free.
Temperatures overall will be near the seasonal average.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)
A slight retrogression of the high pressure area offshore should allow it to warm slightly to near to above normal, temperature-wise. Same generally pattern with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

28 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  2. Thanks, TK…

    Hope everyone is having a great weekend and enjoying a splendid Sunday!

    Quick technology question: I figured out how to use imgur.com last week. I noticed some of you posting photos and scan using scontent…Is that another program like imgur.com?Is “scontent” connected with Facebook?

    Thanks for any help!

  3. TK
    What time does that rain end on Tuesday? Company outing Tuesday starting at 11:00am in Westford.

  4. Quick note to Vicki:

    Bad news: only got one number matched out of a possible 24 numbers in PowerBall and MegaMillions. Can’t even share a small DD coffee with you!

    1. Hahahahahahahahahaha. I truly am laughing out loud. Thank you for letting me know. I’m going to cancel all the things I ordered from Amazon now 🙂

  5. Dave Epstein this morning hinted that at some point something is going to POP down in the tropics. They are not yet “active” per se but stuff is happening via satellite view.

    Also, it seems that a week doesn’t go by without at least “some” rain. Dave mentioned that last summer we would go at least two straight weeks totally dry. We have yet to do that so far.

    1. Not sure about the tropics yet…

      But as for the two weeks of dry? Not happening anytime soon. We’re going to continue to accumulate surplus rain for a few more months. Above normal precip months through November … no surprise at all.

  6. Thanks TK. And ditto on trying to figure out what the pattern is. What it’s not, is a classic summertime “hot” pattern. And thus, it can be argued that despite our occasional bouts of warmer weather as we saw last week, we’re really in the same prevailing pattern we’ve been in for two months. Western ridge. Great Lakes trough. The East “in between” that trough and the Atlantic ridge, but weather resulting more from the trough than the ridge. That will certainly be the case this week. First the heavy rain event, then a couple days that, despite full sunshine, simply aren’t going to be that warm. At or a little below normal. Ultimately, it’s a pattern resulting in overall “normal” temperatures for summer. However, as TK has said, the defining feature, something we haven’t seen in years, is the persistent above normal rainfall.

    As far as upcoming impact weather goes, the only thing I see to watch is a low risk of excessive rainfall from the Monday-Tuesday storm, best chance probably south of the Pike but room for that heaviest axis to shift. Some 2″+ amounts possible.

          1. Matt, kids these days idea of “fun” is to stare into their mobile devices 24/7/365. I honestly can’t remember the last time I saw a snowman, or an igloo, snow fort, etc. In my day those activities were commonplace but pretty much extinct now.

            I didn’t recall seeing any of the above examples in 2015 for sure…not in my neighborhood anyway. 😉

            1. Very true Phillip. Snow days are fun when they happen but having to pay for that fun at the end of June is not enjoyable.

            2. I hear you and hear that a lot, Philip, but am not sure. I see snowmen and snowforts and snow angels and kids sledding. We have about 25 kids under 10 in our small neighborhood and they are out all the time.

              Although I think some of the problem and what we of our generation see is kids can’t just go out and go any more. With two parents working and kids having to be in some form of care, it isn’t as easy.

              I also recall my parents saying this about our generation with Saturday morning cartoons or transistor radios held to our ears as we walked about.

              For this….I’m afraid I like snow days for play. Maybe if there are a few small projects. But even as a nana, I get excited for no school. Sorry, Sue 🙁 My first thought when I saw this a while ago was great idea and then I thought maybe not.

              1. I agree vicki, I use to go where ever the hell I wanted in the neiborhood, woods, marsh, the park, but could not leave the area, I had set boundaries where I could and could not go. Now adays its very rare to see a kid be able to be outside with little supervision.

    2. And I did some looking and it seems that this would be maybe a few papers and an hour-ish of work. I stand corrected and think it would be great. Best of both worlds

  9. Going into August I was envisioning a little more 1988. What we seem to be getting is a little more 1982 (only a little wetter in some areas).

    1. I remember summer 88. I’m going to have to go back and see what happened in August and September of 82.

  10. The NHC has initiated advisories on potential tropical cyclone 7, in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Likely to impact much of the Yucatan with tropical storm conditions tomorrow night, before weakening some over land. After that, it should strengthen in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, possible attaining hurricane intensity before a final landfall in Mexico on Thursday.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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