Monday Forecast

90 Comments

3:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)
Wave of low pressure moves east northeast and passes over far southern New England tonight through early Tuesday, bringing some wet weather, favoring southeastern areas. High pressure moves in mid to late week with fair weather.
TODAY: Clouding over. Areas of rain arrive during the afternoon. Highs 72-78. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain likely mainly South Coast where it may be heavy at times. Slight risk of thunder, favoring heaviest rain areas far south. Scattered lighter rain elsewhere. Areas of fog. Lows 62-68. Wind E 10-20 MPH with higher gusts from southern NH to northern MA, variable to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts southern MA, CT, and RI.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with any rain ending in the morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-82. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to lower 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)
Same general pattern, weak high pressure to the east, weak trough in the Great Lakes sending occasional disturbances into the Northeast. A few showers/thunderstorms at times favoring August 12-14. Temperatures overall will be near the seasonal average.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)
A slight retrogression of the high pressure area offshore should allow it to warm slightly to near to above normal, temperature-wise. Same generally pattern with a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.

90 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK.
    Taking this tweet from a grain of salt from meteorologist Ben Noll about the upcoming winter.
    Now with data through July, we see that the QBO has nearly descended to 50mb. Setting up for moderate-strong negative during winter 2017-18.

    Here is an article I found from a few years ago on QBO. Again this is just one piece to the puzzle trying to figure out what the winter will be as this most certainly will change.
    http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2012/09/negative-qbo-enhancing-prospects-for.html

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Sure doesn’t look like rain at the moment. Quite sunny here at the office.

    Haven’t even looked at a model yet.

    re: Red Sox
    Well I was dead wrong. They battled back into 1st place and then some.
    Coincidence? Price goes to the DL and they start winning? Hmmm

    1. Of course, forgot to mention 2 important additions:

      They added Nunez and Devers. I do believe those additions have had
      a very positive impact on this team. Now let’s see if they can keep it up.
      They have to pitching to get them to the play offs. Let’s hope the hitting
      puts them over the top. 😀

      1. Unfortunately, Price has still been around the team and at every game he’s been on the DL. Interesting to note too, the team seemed more “cohesive” when Pedroia went on the DL too…

        1. Very interesting observation. I agree with you. I think
          Pedroia has slowly become a cancer on this team. Sad, but may be true.

          I firmly believe that Price has to go.

          The Sox have made many very very poor free agent
          signing decisions. Price is right up there with the rest of the piss-poor decisions. Good thing they have plenty of money. Ship that guy out of town, the sooner the better.

          1. Agree re: Price. As for Pedroia, I think at one time he was a very important piece of this team on and off the field, but I wonder if he just needs a change of scenery. Very good player and was having a good season up to this point but I can’t ignore some of the red flags with him this year

  6. I agree JPDave we shall see. Its only August so I can’t get too excited about the upcoming winter. The QBO is only one of many factors that has to be looked at when trying to figure out what the winter will be.
    Your Red Sox did what they had to do and sweep a bad White Sox team who are in clear rebuild mode.

  8. I am NOT impressed with this so-called rain event. Unless something dramatically
    changes and really soon, the bulk of the precipitation will fall above the fish
    well to our South.

    Looking like 1/4 inch at best for Boston and perhaps a whole lot less than that
    IF the HRRR is correct. 😀

    I am sick of watering my new shrubs. The landscaper said to keep them well watered
    else I would lose them.

        1. No prob 🙂 I find eclipses to be fascinating. I often wonder what our ancestors thought about them, not knowing what was happening

      1. Give me some of that convective feed back.

        JMA once explained this phenomenon, but I never really understood it very well. How does this happen to a model
        and why does it persist after all of this time? It seems to me
        that the problem could/should be rectified. 😀

        1. Greetings from the Outer Banks! Haven’t posted much, but I always lurk. My 2014 explanation of convective feed back is below. I see a lot these traits in the current version of the ECMWF as well. The NAM has improved with its last upgrade but not immune.

          When the NAM processes a low pressure systems underneath or parallel to another low, convective feedback often occurs. Look at the NAM. Find 2 lows that are separated by about 400 miles. It is the reflection and absorption of that 2nd low that creates a convective band that you can verify is not supported by the models own thermodynamic parameters and its kinematic equation parameters, yet there is rapid latent heat transfer causing this convective band, which creates an anomalously high quantitative precipitation forecast. The NAM changed it kinematic equation in 2012 and it has created a lot more feedback issues than the model ever has had in its past. Also there can be a modeled a phantom 3rd pressure drop about 200-400 miles away from the 2nd low and then that creates a false signal for extended precipitation away from the 2nd low pressure and retrogrades the spin of this 3rd area towards the 2nd or now combined low, which leads to the NAM’s infamous reputation for holding onto precipitation too long.

          1. GFS still has these issues less frequently because of its lower resolution but not immune and certainly plenty flawed. See summer 2017, actually I think all the models have been extra crappy all summer. Can’t wait til we get a singficant pattern change commence and they all lose their collective minds.

          4. Thank you for addressing this. I’m just arriving home.

            It’s the best explanation out there.

        1. Not impressed with radar trends. Will continue to
          monitor. It would not take much of a shift to get
          some heavier rain up here. 😀

          1. I don’t think I’ve seen rain in 2 weeks because it didn’t rain in Maine and outside of a sprinkle saturday, all the storms missed to the north and west of marshfield.

  15. The RAIN is approaching, but I can’t help but notice that the main motion
    appears to be almost straight West to East, hardly any Northward component, if any.

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=50&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25035497&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    1. Latest from NWS Taunton office:

      .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
      — Changed Discussion —
      150 PM Update… Light showers, falling from mid level
      cloudiness, continued across much of western and central
      portions of southern New England this afternoon. A more solid
      area of rain was approaching from southeast NY and northern NJ.

      925 mb winds show a batch of 25 kts along the MA east coast and
      by 21Z. This has already resulted in gusts to 24-27 kts at
      Boston and Nantucket.

      Still working on the afternoon forecast package, but am planning
      on reducing rainfall totals for much of the forecast area.
      Looking like convection over the mid-Atlantic region may prevent
      much of the inflow across interior southern New England. It will
      still rain everywhere tonight but am anticipating that the
      heavy totals will be confined to the southeast MA and southern
      RI coastal areas.
      — End Changed Discussion —

          1. My colleague / chase partner and I were talking about CF issues for the last 3 days…so yeah.

  16. 0.1-0.25″ for Boston (o.25 is a bit bullish if the city doesn’t experience a downpour)
    0.25-0.5″ south of the pike
    0.5-1.0″ Cape and Islands

    If this were a Winter storm, many snow lovers would be disappointed with this particular system.

      1. I’m always here and always reading. Just chime in from time to time. Hope you guys are enjoying this summer despite the anomalous weather pattern.

    2. They wouldn’t have been had they been following along here the entire time. CF poisoning was so obvious on the NAM and ECMWF I’m not sure how they missed it.

  17. I’m actually very glad the rain won’t be as much as previously thought. My tomatoes are suffering from blight from too much water and not enough sun to help them ripen. I can only eat so many fried green tomatoes

    1. haha – I dog sat for my daughter and family last year when they went to FL. It was end of season and they had a lot of green tomatoes. Fried green are good to start but after a bit enough is enough!!

  18. Quick peak at 12z EURO and taking it with huge grain of salt being out there brings a tropical system close to the Carolinas before recurving out to sea. 996 mb low south and east of 40N 70W (aka The Benchmark)

      1. That would be the one I am talking about. Lot of time for that too change and it may end where that system out in the Atlantic doesn’t survive the trip all the way to east coast.

      2. I’m too cheap to have the DVR feature. I cannot stand paying
        that slime ball company Comcast anything more than I have to.
        They SUCK and are a BRUTAL company. BRUTALLY USELESS
        piece of crap Company. Ask me what I think about Comcrap.

        1. I call them that, too. My bill, hard fought for, was $89.99/month to start and now, nothing has changed, I’m paying $170/month. WTF? I hate them, and I hate Verizon, too. No win.

        2. Ever think about getting TiVo? It works with any cable system and is the gold standard for DVRs

          1. I actually had been thinking about talking to my SIL. I believe they have TiVo. Can it be whole house?

    1. Thanks, Sue. I remember when I was 12ish that there was a solar eclipse. They sent all younguns home from the pool club where I swam because they were afraid we’d look up and damage our eye sight.

        1. Awesome. You got lucky. We were scared with the threat of losing our sight.

          Was that same one….must have been early 60s?

    2. Not really surprised. We must have our drama. Do they not look at past history? A large portion of the path will be in very sparsely populated areas. And fewer people will crowd towns along the path, thanks to the internet.

      They are preparing for a whole lot of not much. 🙂

  21. The 18Z NAM has come around.

    Now showing 0.18 inch for Boston and the HRRR is at 0.13

    Now this appears a bit more reasonable. Let’s see if we even get that. 😀

  23. Windows are open so I get to wear a light pair of sweats and listen to the light rain. I love this weather. Loved yesterday too of course

  25. It was a lovely tribute. Sue, can’t thank you enough for letting us know. I laughed and cried. And I felt the love of all who knew Dick.

    1. Not really. It was a big fail on the part of those who didn’t recognize the convective feedback issues the NAM and ECMWF had for at least 3 days leading up to this event.

  29. Total amount of rain collected in my rain gauge yesterday and overnight:

    ZILCH

    We did have a few sprinkles here and there, but amounted to less than 0.01 inch because nothing showed in the rain gauge. 😀

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