Tuesday Forecast

64 Comments

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)
Low pressure departs to the east today but clouds will linger and some colder air aloft will trigger a few showers. High pressure dominates midweek with fair, dry, warmer weather. Moisture increases toward the end of the week with a slight increase in the risk of showers again.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-80. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-64. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)
Same general pattern, weak high pressure to the east, weak trough in the Great Lakes sending occasional disturbances into the Northeast. A few showers/thunderstorms at times favoring August 13-14 and again late period. Temperatures overall will be near the seasonal average.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)
A slight retrogression of the high pressure area offshore should allow it to warm slightly with a continued risk for a few showers/storms at times.

64 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. thanks Tk.
    The Canadian and the EURO now develop that system that the gfs was once showing, not as extreme and not hitting the coast but still there. Something to watch and have fun with

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A wee bit of drizzle on the drive in and it is very dark, but no rain. 😀

  6. Thanks TK.
    CMC and EURO as Matt said developing that system out in the Atlantic. As I always say anytime you see low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched.

  7. The Atlantic system (“Invest 99L”) faces an uphill battle to develop at all. I think the Euro and certainly the CMC are overdone. However, even if it develops, the upper air pattern over the US strongly favors a recurve out to sea, preventing any direct coastal impacts.

    1. That’s how it currently looks, but one never knows so let’s see what really happens. That being said, I generally agree with your overall assessment. 😀

  8. A tweet from meteorologist Michael Clark to be a taken with BUCKETS LOAD OF SALT!!!
    New ECMWF monthlies sure do advertise A LOT of high latitude blocking late Fall into all of Winter. While intriguing..the model has been meh

  9. Another lovely warm summer day.
    #%^#€^*%€#

    Most uneven summer. At least August 2009 had some heat. This is ridiculous for August 8. I’m at a company outing and its sweat shirts and jackets. What a disaster.

    2. Like I said before, its actually not that far from normal. It has been a bit cloudier than normal. Temperature wise we are near normal. We summer people been spoiled the last 5 years.

  10. Look at the positive with it not being hot this summer your saving money on your electric bill and I don’t know anyone who doesn’t mind having a few extra dollars in their pockets.
    To have only one week where the humidity had staying power so far this summer I will take it.

    1. I like humidity and don’t give a rats ass about the money saved. Too many highs in the 60’s and dreary weather.

    2. For some reason, my electric bill has been about the same. Might have something to do with the rates that keep going up up and away :angry:

        1. Yours hasn’t gone up at all. Nice.

          Electric is crazy high in this house but it has an electric hot water heater which we upgraded asap. Central AC IMO is far and away more expensive than window ACs. And SIL also installed a minisplit to give that some relief.

          Heat (oil) on the other hand is very low so I guess it evens out.

  11. There is no use complaining because you can’t control the weather. In the winter when we get more rain events than snow events or a coastal storm misses I don’t like it but as my mom always says it wasn’t meant to be. There more things to be angry and upset about in this world than the weather.

  12. TK – we have a company outing planned on Saturday at Canobie. Sounds like it will be isolated showers but of course folks are freaking out because they heard it is going to rain this weekend. How confident are you that it will not be any type of washout on Saturday?

  13. A meteorologist question: could the lifted index theoretically be so high, say -10 or something, that moisture gets lifted all the way beyond the stratosphere meaning no cumulonimbus clouds will develop?

    2. It cannot quite happen that way.

      Sometimes the taller CBs will poke into the lower stratosphere, then the top will collapse back down.

  14. Sun in and out – more out than in – clouds are amazing. Love this. It also makes me think of rainshine. I do hope she is where she can enjoy the sky!!!

      1. I was out doing a lot of errands and I did notice the sky. It was beautiful. Seemed like a lot of variations in the clouds.

    1. I had seen that and agree. The Pollyanna in me says we just need to get politics out of the equation.

      2. its sad because scientists rather just be behind the scenes and do the science and talk in conferences and stuff, not getting involved with politics, but they have too. Another sad fact is that scientists need money, for their income as well as for the experiments as well, in which there are grants and other sources, with the larger amount of money sources usually from government. There are those people who say the scientists that get these grants and money from sources are biased blah blah blah. Saying that its not from a central source. Its not their fault that their findings are not what you want. Thats science, and it can give unpleasant results but instead of dealing with it, they rather cover it up like so much stuff in the passed. Politics will be involved as long as science is involved in shaping the world. We need more scientists in charge of things but lets not get to political on here, we can do it over facebook 🙂

      2. He does not, I voted for him and would do so again, in spades. I never on here and said how much I loathed the last one. There’s other blogs to disparage the president besides a weather blog.
        Thanks

        1. he might not but many of his followers does, but like I said above lets not make this as political as people are making it, its part of the problem. If one side does not like one view, the other has to be the other. Its always black and white so it makes the scientists job harder

  17. Even with the lack of sustained heat this summer, the water temps off our coasts are fairly warm

    1. Not too bad, considering. We have had some Hot weather to be sure. It hasn’t
      been totally absent. I love today.

      The only time I hate the cooler weather is for the beach (read that swimming), otherwise cool weather is fine in my book. Granted I do not like cool wet
      weather. Today is aok.

    2. Kids were in the water most every day we were at the beach, including the one they closed the water for bacteria and forgot to tell folks who were not on the public part. I’ve been there in past years when it bites your ankles. I actually had expected it to be colder.

  18. Other than the current system in or near Mexico, the GFS is DEVOID of
    Atlantic tropical systems.

    CMC still has our friendly Atlantic system well off of our coast:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017080812/gem_mslp_wind_atl_34.png

    Today’s Euro still has it as well.

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017080812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_atl_9.png

    We know these are way out there, but 2 out 3 say something is up.

    Only time will tell. Still fun to watch and see.

    2. if that high pressure moves a tad further west, we could see that sucker ride right on up the east coast.

  19. Mild and borderline humid day, lots of clouds giving way to partial sun. Typical August day for this kind of pattern. Quite nice out there this afternoon. 🙂

  20. According to Barry, no hot temps for at least the next two weeks.

    I do wonder though if the heat ends up returning just in time for back-to-school. We don’t usually get off this lucky.

        1. We’ve had hot days (fewer than last summer), more rain than last summer (which was easy to do obviously) but not excessive rain. It’s been pretty average overall…so far. Changes coming. Finally figured out the combo.

  21. Tragedy next door to our office.

    Someone was stabbed and killed next door about an hour ago.
    It will be on the news tonight for certain. As far as we know, not anyone from our office.

    Police are all over the scene.

    Another Sad Sad day in the City of Boston. Ye Another senseless act of violence and for the life of me I will NEVER understand it.

  23. Anyone into Astronomy?

    With the total solar eclipse in 13 days, how dark will we get? Streetlights-on dark?

    1. I think the sun is covered somewhere in the 60 to 70% range.

      If it’s a sunny day, the light coming down will be noticeably weaker.

      If it’s rainy at the time, with thick cloudiness overhead, then my guess is it would be like a cloudy day an hour or 2 before sunset, where it’s still light, but it’s not bright.

      4 years from now in April is an eclipse where we’ll have about 90% of the sun covered.

  24. Here’s the one thing that gives me a bit of unease with any potential validation of the euro’s development of the Atlantic tropical wave.

    The jet stream up in Canada is going to be extremely amplified next week. Anomalous ridge with a deep trof and 500mb low in far eastern Canada. The models currently have this deep trof and low in such a position that it provides west to southwest flow aloft over New England, which would keep any tropical system OTS.

    Thinking many disturbances out over the pacific and the arctic will be rotating around this flow and are yet to be data sampled.

    I just hold out a bit of concern for the possibility that the flow gets so amplified, that the eastern Canada trof cuts off and ends up digging further west southwest into the northern Ohio Valley, allowing a sharper south, southwest flow aloft to set up along the east coast of the U.S.

  25. QBO, MJO (or lack thereof), -NAO have been the cause of the normalish summer so far.

    Indications are for NAO to go neutral or even slightly positive by August 20. QBO is indeterminate and MJO is likely to be weak enough not be a major factor.

    Based on this a period of above normal temps and possibly below normal precipitation may ensue after mid month and last into September.

      1. In other words, back-to-school HHH as I stated above. I feel for those starting in August which is stupid IMO regardless of temps.

  26. I feel like this fall will be
    Normal to above normal temperatures September
    Near normal rainfall
    October. Above normal but cool shots increasing latter part of the month and normal to below normal precipitation.
    November. cooler than average with above normal precipitation.
    Over all warm with average precipitation for Fall.

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