Sunday Forecast

62 Comments

12:39PM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)
Straightforward August pattern. High pressure dominates today then sinks to the south early to midweek with warmer weather, as a generally west to east jet stream dominates, though not overly strong. A boundary and some increased humidity may trigger some showers and possible thunderstorms Monday evening along the South Coast, and even a few more isolated showers may occur in that area during Tuesday, otherwise look for a generally rain-free pattern through midweek. A tropical system passing out to sea to the southeast may generate some larger ocean swells to impact coastal areas during midweek. A weak cold front will pass through early Thursday from the north but likely without anything but a wind shift and slight cooling.
THIS AFTERNOON: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly clear. Lows 62-67. Wind light W.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-82 coast, 83-88 interior. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle to upper 60s. Highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s, warmest interior areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)
A progressive trough in a fairly fast west-to-east flow should bring a warm front across the region by August 18 and a cold front by early August 19 resulting in a period of unsettled weather. After this look for a return to mainly dry, moderate humid weather with a risk of a few showers/storms otherwise mainly rain-free conditions.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)
High pressure should be in control for most of this period with drier weather and temperatures near to above normal. Some computer guidance has suggested another possible tropical system off the coast at some point so will continue to monitor this possibility.

62 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  4. 12z GFS …… Let’s see. If the gfs verified tropically this summer, all that was left standing on the whole U.S. east coast was Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket, which it took aim at on that run. 🙂 🙂

    1. I will say this about the GFS, it has had this new tropical system for a couple of days now, run after run. 😀

      I’ll keep watching the Euro and see what that shows.

  6. Thanks TK
    Looks like a front comes through keeping that tropical system the 12z GFS is showing offshore.

  7. Happy Sunday, everyone…

    For the past couple of days, I have been watching, converting and uploading a couple of historical weather videos that I found while cleaning the cellar. Miracles of miracles, the technology worked!!! I hope you enjoy the videos. I worked on this with all of you in the WHW family in mind. Please ignore the changing of the channels.

    I will post them now with brief comments and apologies!

    1. Nice job. Pretty cool material.

      Interesting that there was a TORNADO watch up.

      Although we never called in the NWS, I am almost certain we had a touch down
      in my neighborhood. 😀 Yes, I know, there is nothing documented, but if
      you saw the damage and the layout of the fallen trees, you might agree with me.

  11. This is a link to NOAA radio from Providence during the Blizzard of 1978. This is no video. Please ignore the graphics which there are none. I used the free, seven-day trial to make the upload. Also, the background has an annoying “putt-putt-putt” which I couldn’t eliminate. Sorry about that. The audio is on an old cassette tape which is about 40 years old.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K6lP8qgoXqM

  14. Tim Kelley (from Channel 6 in Providence) is on one of the videos and so is Bob Copeland. I think I may have edited them out. I will check this out and create another video if this is so.

    The Hurricane Gloria isn’t that long because I think we lost power.

    The Blizzard of 96 video is interspersed with home video of the blizzard and snow pack at our Taunton home. Feel free to come and help dig us out.

    Please enjoy!!! As I wrote earlier, I did all of this with y’all in mind!

  15. The NWS Forecast for this upcoming winter is for above average temps and equal chances of above/below average snowfall.

    Common sense tells me that above average temps hardly translates into above average snows…a neat trick if Mother Nature could pull it off, I suppose.

    1. That’s just part of their very vague long range forecast they update every 4 weeks. I wouldn’t really put any stock in it at this point.

    2. Also, there is generally no correlation between a long range winter temperature forecast and snowfall forecast. We’ve had many winters with above normal temperatures and above normal snowfall.

  18. Nice review of an exhibition of Charles Burchfield’s artwork depicting weather. See link below. The exhibition is in Montclair, N.J., at the Montclair Art Museum, and opens September 16th. The review was published in the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal. It’s hard to retrieve these articles for free on the internet, but sometimes you can using the Internet Explorer browser. I pick up my print copy at the local coffee shop where readers leave newspapers and magazines in a wicker bin.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/artist-charles-burchfield-gets-the-weather-right-1502375344

    1. And they’ll be pretty much wrong, and also forecast the opposite to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, which will also be pretty much wrong. 😛

  20. Thanks TK. Hoping to limit the unsettled times from Thursday-Sunday. Got a couple great beach days in on the Cape this past Wednesday and Thursday and hoping for a couple more in that period.

    Lot of talk on social media about the tropics today. Based on everything we know about how the Atlantic tropics work (admittedly, not enough to be very good at predicting them), the next two weeks have the potential to be quite busy across the basin. If you haven’t reviewed your hurricane plan lately, or don’t have one… no time like the present! Not to suggest at all that we’ll be in the crosshairs, but you should at least have an idea of how you’d react to such an event.

    Newly minted “Gert” may strengthen a little more than forecast. It becoming a hurricane wouldn’t shock me. It’ll throw some swells our way, but luckily, it peels off well away from us with a well timed trough. Without that trough and front, things could’ve gotten interesting somewhere along the East Coast.

  21. Great stars tonight. No Perseid sighting but the big, black, batlike thing sighting over my head drove me indoors.

  23. TK – Can you give some early thoughts as to the sky cover for next Monday’s solar eclipse? Boston will be 63% covered according to Dave Epstein.

      1. Thanks Vicki, but I am also wondering how much if any clouds will be around that day. I actually wouldn’t mind seeing some filtered clouds so I can see the eclipse sans special glasses.

        1. You’re welcome. I did know you wondered about clouds but don’t have the expertise. I just figured you might find this fun. Do you have special glasses? I’m not sure where to get them.

          1. No problem Vicki. The sun 60% covered still looks to be interestingly dark. Wonder if enough for some streetlights to come on? I believe some are more sensitive to natural light than others.

            As for the glasses, I understand that some libraries have them, but not sure if they charge or not.

    2. So Epstein can predict the amount of sky coverage down to the percent 1 week in advance?

      Well, that is completely useless information.

  25. Thankful the sox took 2 of 3 in NY, but sadly, they “should” have had all three.
    Still 5 1/2 game lead ain’t too shabby. Let’s hope they can keep this up.

    1. And Devers! What can I say.

      By Ian Browne / MLB.com | @IanMBrowne | 3:36 AM ET + 40 COMMENTS
      NEW YORK — The three hardest pitches that Rafael Devers had ever seen quickly made him aware of the challenge he was up against while facing Aroldis Chapman with the Red Sox down by a run in the top of the ninth inning on Sunday night at Yankee Stadium.

      When the fourth came in, the 20-year-old Devers was ready, and he smashed the 102.8-mph offering for a stunning, game-tying solo shot to left-center that sparked the Red Sox to a thrilling, 3-2 victory over the Yankees in 10 innings.

  26. First time a left handed batter got a home run of Chapman since 2011. I was surprised the way that happened the way Chapman was dealing.

    1. Location location location. It’s all about the location of the pitch no matter how fast. Also how well he changes speeds. He could throw ten 120mph pitches in a row but if they’re in a spot the batter can hit and he’s looking fastball, the batter will hit it more often than not.

      1. A bit over simplified imho. The eye-hand coordination required
        to hit a ball coming in at 103 mph is off the charts. I watched
        that replay a couple of times. That pitch was up in the strike zone and more on the outside of the plate. For him to get that pitch was phenomenal. Awe inspiring to me! I played a lot of baseball in my life and believe me for him to do that was truly amazing.

        And btw, no one on the planet would be able to hit a 120 mph pitch. Simply Not enough time in the 60 or so feet to make the adjustment and put the bat on the ball. There is a reason why
        there are precious few home runs hit off of Chapman. As good as Sale is, he still gives up an occasional dinger. The extra 5 mph
        that Chapman can generate, reduces the Percent of home runs
        dramatically.

  30. Please see replies above…

    Especially about the sky coverage for next Monday. Feathers ruffled if we have TV met’s predicting sky cover to the nearest 1% 7 days in advance. We can’t do that. We CAN NOT do that.

      1. I believe what they were talking about was the amount of sky coverage due to the eclipse and not cloud cover.

        1. That’s what Dave Epstein was saying. 63% sun coverage by the moon for our area (i.e. the eclipse), not cloud cover.

          1. Got it. The wording made it sound like cloud cover. I didn’t think he was THAT insane.

  31. 63% is the percentage of the Sun that will be covered, not a sky cover forecast.

    From what I’m seeing, weather for the eclipse viewing in this area should be just about perfect. Above normal confidence on dry and probably mostly clear for 8/21. High pressure in control.

      1. What forecast were you looking at? I thought mostly sunny skies too. Its been partly to mostly cloudy today here.

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