Tuesday Forecast

27 Comments

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)
Hurricane Gert passes far southeast of England today through early Wednesday while a disturbance moves across the Northeast providing lots of clouds and a few areas of rain. This is a cloudier, somewhat wetter forecast for parts of the region than previously being carried, but it’s temporary as high pressure moves back in with great weather Wednesday. However, larger ocean swells from Gert will reach the coastal areas Wednesday increasing the risk of rip currents along the beaches. High pressure will maintain control Thursday before the next weather system brings unsettled weather Friday into Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible anywhere but favoring north central MA, southern NH, and southeastern MA during the morning, then confined more to the South Coast this afternoon but a few more showers/thunderstorms may pop up in north central MA and southern NH late. Highs 75-82. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 62-67. Wind light W.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-83 Cape Cod, 83-88 elsewhere. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to middle 80s, warmest interior.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)
Typical August pattern of moderate to high humidity and a few opportunities for showers/thunderstorms at times.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-29)
More of the same pattern but may need to keep an eye on the track of a tropical system.

27 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. How confident are you in a sky forecast 6 days out? 🙂

      After all, 1 and 2 days before yesterday and today the forecasts were “mostly sunny”. 😀

      1. Yup. I’m to where this summer I don’t believe a thing except my eyes when I get up. Sky cover forecast this week so far has been less than stellar. I’m speaking generally here, no one singled out in particular. I took a vacation week this week :(. Maybe I can salvage tomorrow and Thursday. I should have flown south for the week again.
        Have an outdoor party planned Saturday. From the looks of it, may have to move it inside. But then again as well as it’s been going in the forecast world, I’ll wait till Saturday morning to make a call.

          1. I’m thinking it depended on where you were yesterday. We sat outside well into the evening and it was lovely. Kids played out all day. Sun was hidden or filtered but it was warm with a lovely breeze. Kids in neighborhood have been out all day today as well. I cannot comment on it, however, since I haven’t been out 🙁

  7. We’re arriving in Edgartown for our much anticipated week here on the boat. We time our visit here to coincide with the Oak Bluffs annual fireworks, which are awesome. It sounds as though the weather may put this in doubt… perhaps they have the flexibility of a rain date on Saturday?

    Seas are flat and a bit of a breeze has kicked up. We felt a tiny sprinkle of rain a few minutes ago. Comfortable temperature today with the sun in hiding…

  8. Thanks TK. Heavy rains in the mid-Atlantic today which may skirt our South Coast this evening. There’s an argument to be made that this feature is a predecessor rain event (PRE), but like Gert, it will not have much of an impact on us.

      1. I’ve seen reports of up to three inches in coastal Virginia. Delaware and eastern Maryland have also had places in the 1-2″ range so far.

  9. Well my sister lives in a resort town along the coast of Oregon. Yesterday the local residents made runs to the grocery stores in advance of the sightseers … on the advice of the local gov’t. The supermarkets are jammed. Motels are charging $1,000/night. Workers who can barely get into town are being told to sleep over inside (on the floor) the business where they work. Delivery trucks can’t make it in. The town has 9,000 winter residents, 30,000 summer residents and is expecting close to 100,000 visitors this weekend. I told her to get all the food she needs and then stay home!

    1. Oh my —- I wouldn’t have even suspected all that would happen. Mac has a cousin with a home overlooking puget sound. I’ll have to reach out to her. I do think they are just shy of a total eclipse, however.

      I cannot believe 1000/night….arghhh. and that she and others are stuck where they are for days.

    2. Reminds me of the year the Constitution sailed to Marblehead and homes rented for $5000 for a week. Access to the town had to be blocked. Weather turned out perfect.

  12. I’ve found that, even for mid-latitude forecasting, the GFS doesn’t add much value to a forecast anymore. For the long range, a non-GFS weighted blend with emphasis on the ensembles and the operational ECMWF will lead you in the right general direction. Inside 3-4 days, continuing to use those models for overall ideas and using the NAM and the hi res guidance for details does a pretty good job. Only an occasional glance at the GFS. In the tropics, it’s worse. There, I would say the GFS has probably been exhibiting negative skill for the most part. We’ve seen the “ghost” storms of course, and there are many other issues. It didn’t even “see” Gert for 24-36 hours after it formed. Like, it was spinning out there as a developed tropical cyclone, yet the GFS would not initialize it as such for about a half dozen runs. Something (or several somethings) are terribly wrong in the new model package.

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