Sunday Forecast

40 Comments

10:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)
No big changes for this update. High pressure dominates today through Tuesday with pleasant if not a bit breezy conditions today with sun/clouds. I’d forecast 100% sunshine Monday as I expect nothing but a few high clouds in the sky, however the moon will be crossing in front of the sun from 1:28PM to 3:59PM (mid point 2:46PM) and will cover 60-65% of the sun across southern New England at its mid point. The well-advertised path of totality will enter the Pacific Northwest and exit via the Carolinas and thanks to media we’ll get plenty of opportunity to “see” it. You may wonder when the next total is for reasonably close to this area. The answer is: Monday April 8 2024 when the path of totality will cross Upstate NY and northern Maine. Start planning your trip now! 😉 Back to the weather…by Tuesday we’re going to see what has become a rare hot day, but that’s only for a day, as a cold front will put a quick end to that on Wednesday, and a Canadian high will bring cooler/drier air by Thursday.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-86, coolest Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but gusting around or just over 20 MPH at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-60 interior valleys, 60-65 elsewhere. Wind light NW to N.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-83 Cape Cod and some immediate shores, 83-88 otherwise. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)
Dry with a warming trend August 25-26. More humid August 27-29 and what is uncertain is whether or not we will be directly or indirectly impacted by a tropical system at some point during this time. Will watch and fine-tune in the days ahead.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 3)
Again, as with the end of the 6-10 day period we will need to keep an eye on the tropics since it’s impossible this far in advance to know in detail what any possible tropical system might do, and there has been enough hinting of this on medium range guidance that I won’t turn my back on the possibility. Outside of this potential, the pattern should support fairly warm and mainly dry weather.

40 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I know we all loathe the CMC model, however, it has been advertising an
    East coast tropical system in one form or another for days on end.

    The euro has had something on and off, currently off.
    The GFS has been out to lunch, but the 6Z run finally shows a bit of someting
    and a little similar to the CMC except much weaker.

    Is this the cause of your concern? or are you seeing something else?

  4. Thanks, TK!

    Nice day today – but looking forward to at least one more HHH day before the summer is over. Days already getting shorter. This summer seemed to go by fast.

    1. We’re only about 2/3 of the way through the HHH days we’re going to have this summer…

  5. Thanks TK
    The Almighty Farmers’ Almanac going with a cold and snowy winter. We shall see. There red flagging January 20-23rd February 4-7 and 16-19 March 1st -3rd and 20th-23rd for some heavy precipitation. I would think if there going to be right about any of the periods Feb 4th – 7th they maybe right since we seem to get a good size storm around that time period.
    https://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather-outlook/2018-winter-forecast/

    1. I remember Todd Gross always focused on Feb. 6-12 every winter since that particular timeframe is typical for big snows around here.

      Of course the FA predicts snow & cold almost every winter. 😉

      1. The Todd’s Rule thing worked only as much as climatology said it would. That’s all he used.

  6. I would assume that with the next solar eclipse in 2024 passing just to our north, the sun should be covered even more here in SNE…close to 100%? 😀

  7. Philip now that you brought that up I remember when I was going to college up there and I saw Todd Gross do a weather segment in the winter and he always pointed towards Feb. 6th – 12th as the highest potential for a snowstorm which is the peak of winter.
    Two Big storms happened during that time period Blizzard of 78 and Blizzard of 13. I am sure if we look back there were other snowstorms in that time period.

      1. February is the snowiest month of the year. It’s going to snow decently on Valentine’s Day now and again, just like it will on February 8, or February 18, or 21, or…

  8. Planning ahead (I am a teacher after all!!!!)

    It looks like Boston will be in 93% totality in the Monday, April 8, 2024 solar eclipse, according to this map:

    https://www.greatamericaneclipse.com/april-8-2024/

    The small village of Makanda, Illinois, just south of Carbondale, will be the site of total totality for both eclipses.

    Time to stock up on solar glasses, non-perishable groceries and rent out the back room for 2024!

    Maybe April 8 will be the Fenway Park home opener for 2024? The first night, day game ever???

      1. Nice! If Boston is going to have that much of the sun covered then maybe no special glasses will be needed. 😀

    1. I remember here in Boston when Chet & Nat assisted in the Labor Day Telehon on Ch. 5. Does that event even still exist?

        1. I was thinking the same. My sister in law said in Ga they were suggesting finding a leaf at reflects the sun and see how the light changes on it

  12. NWS out of Upton, NY with some enhanced wording in my opinion for Tuesday night Wednesday.
    The cold front will be driven by a 100-kt H3 jet, so tstms will be easier to sustain or initiate at ngt. If the timing ends up slightly slower, a svr outbreak is possible on Wed as CAPE could soar to 3000 J/kg or more. Even with the progged faster timing however, there could still be svr at any time ahead of the front with the jet acting on MUCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg.

  13. I agree JPDave. To me this is one of the better setups for thunderstorm we have seen since June 19th. We may end of dodging the bullet if the timing of the front comes through overnight.

  14. NWS Taunton take for Wed.
    Cold front swings across southern New England. Timing is still in question, but consensus would have the front exiting the coast in the afternoon. Southern New England will be in the right rear quadrant of a 300 mb jet max of 100-110 kts, which would be favorable for strong thunderstorm development, especially given high PW values still in place in eastern MA and RI through early afternoon

          1. I plan to be inside myself tomorrow. Going to just look out my window and notice how “dark” it gets. I have plenty things to do around the house anyway. 🙂

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