Monday Forecast

104 Comments

3:06AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 21-25)
First, the solar eclipse. As we’ve been talking about, the solar eclipse is today. With the path of totality well to the south of New England, unless you are making a trip to a narrow strip of land to hope for clear enough sky to witness it in person, you’ll have to rely on TV or the internet for that. Here in southern New England, we’re looking at a 60-65% coverage of the sun (63% in Boston) at eclipse maximum which is 2:46PM. The beginning is 1:28PM. The end is at 3:59PM. And the sky will be mainly clear for this event with great viewing conditions. I cannot urge you enough to view this eclipse safely with certified glasses made for the event, or a home made sun “projector” which allows you to project the image of the sun on a surface making it safe to view. When we get to Tuesday, the heat will be in for a one-day stand, along with higher humidity, but this will be cut short by a cold front that crosses the region from northwest to southeast in the early hours of Wednesday. Showers/thunderstorms that enter northwestern New England Tuesday night will likely be weakening as they cross southern New England overnight and early Wednesday, but we will have to watch for a few stronger storms that survive the trip. This will coincide with the one-year anniversary of the 3:20AM Concord MA tornado, which was a reminder that severe weather, though rare at that time, can occur at any time. Not looking for severe weather this time but cannot completely rule out a couple stronger storms surviving. Drier air will flow in later Wednesday and be in control into late week, along with somewhat cooler temperatures, though I am not convinced it gets as cool as some of the computer guidance suggests, so will bias the forecast a bit to the warmer side of most that you will see. My reasoning for this is that I believe guidance is coming up with a low pressure trough that is deeper and slower-moving than the one that will occur.
TODAY: Sunshine, dimmed by the moon for part of the afternoon (most noticeable 2:30PM-3:00PM). Highs 78-83 Cape and Islands, 84-89 elsewhere, though the temperature may drop a couple degrees during mid point of eclipse then recover – hardly noticeable. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Becoming more humid overnight. Lows 62-67. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Humid. Highs 78-85 south Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Showers/thunderstorms possible from northwest to southeast late night and overnight hours. Humid. Lows 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorm exiting from northwest to southeast early, then partly sunny with a slight risk of isolated afternoon showers. Humid start, drier finish. Highs 77-85. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 26-30)
Generally fair with temperatures pleasant but somewhat below normal on the August 26 but we will then have to keep an eye on the tropics for a possible system near or off the East Coast as otherwise the temperatures moderate and humidity increases again.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 31-SEPTEMBER 4)
Seasonably warm and somewhat humid with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities during this time period, which includes the Labor Day Weekend. Will fine-tune and detail this forecast going forward.

104 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  4. Thanks TK. Eclipse day at last! Admittedly, I’m not overly excited about it, but it’ll be pretty cool and certainly if you’re in the path of totality that is a one of a kind experience. I did some research recently for Blue Hill Observatory on past eclipses in our area and how they can impact the weather. My brief report on that is posted on the Observatory’s website if you’re interested. Boston 25 news is reporting from Blue Hill this morning.

    http://www.bluehill.org/climate/201708_BHO_Eclipse_Summary.pdf

      1. Hi Captain, I actually don’t move in until Labor Day to start my senior year. Enjoying a little time off these next couple weeks 🙂

  11. Good morning and thank you TK.

    I can’t tell you exactly why, except maybe because I have been through this before, but
    I am not all worked up about this eclipse. In fact I could give a rat’s ass.
    Now, isn’t that cynical? Sorry, just saying.

    Have a great day one and all. 😀

    1. Oddly, I’m with you, JPD. Is it because we cannot actually watch it? I’m a bit confused by my total lack of enthusiasm also.

    2. 🙂 I agree with you too. Can’t stand all the media and stuff. Maybe we’ll watch a movie on cable.

    3. I think I would be much more enthused were it total or close to.
      If I recall other partials, it may just seem like a heavy cloud cover came in. I might have to be on the Charles on an SUP for this one — looking down!

  13. Thanks, TK.

    Looking forward to the eclipse (but not that excited as a lot of people). Interesting to see how weird it might look as it gets dark and how the animals react.

    More interested in the possibility of severe weather Tues. night/Weds. morning.

    1. When I say a lot of people, I should say people all over the country. And I think it’s great for kids as an educational way – as long as they have adult supervision and the proper eyewear. As should everyone else. We aren’t going to look – busy around house but will take some peeks out the window but not at sky.

  14. The timing of the front coming in Tuesday night Wednesday morning I feel will help us dodge a bullet. I feel if this front came in during peak heating we would have a good setup for severe weather. This is just my opinion but I would like to hear TK’s thoughts on that.
    NAM run after run is WAY aggressive with some of the severe parameters tomorrow night.

  18. Stupid question, why is it any more dangerous to look at the sun during an eclipse than any other time?

    1. My wide and I were just discussing that over lunch.

      Although I don’t have anything official, here is my thought.

      It is not any more dangerous, however, the danger arises in that
      “most” people would tend to look at it too long. We all look at the sun from time to time, but it is so powerful, that we turn away very quickly. With the eclipse it is not so powerful and thus it is much easier to keep looking and of course with the eclipse we have a reason to look longer. So that is my thinking, correct or not.

      😀

    2. I was told as a youth……….so we know how many years ago that was and it could have changed……..that you can look at it longer because it seems to be less brilliant but it is not.

      My daughter said that she thought the sun was brighter last night than normal. She takes a ton of photos and has not had “sun spots” appear on them with her new camera. Last night, she did. And she said her eyes had more trouble readjusting when she looked away.

      She wondered if it is brighter.

      Now, that I weighed in with nothing that is more than heresay…….I think I’ll do some reading on it 🙂

      2. For the past few years, I have wondered about the sun being stronger. It was either last yr. or yr. before, in the middle of winter (not much if any snow on the ground to reflect) it was like 20 degres out and the sun was so strong I had to close the shades in the kitchen. To me, many days the sun feels hotter than it used to several yrs. ago.

  19. No change with SPC outlook for tomorrow.
    Getting some clouds right now hope this clears by peak time 2:45 where it will be 67% here.

    1. Agree, but as we all know 10 days away is the same as a decade away. I wonder how many model changes we will see between now and 8/31.

  21. With good health, I’m headed to Burlington VT area in 2024. The TV coverage of this has been exciting.

    EURO run is interesting, both for Texas and off SE coast.

  24. Sun is noticeably dimmed in central CT right now as I look out the window.

    Went to the eye doctor earlier for my annual eye exam and had my eyes dilated so not even attempting to go outside and look further 🙂

  25. Clouds broke in my area and I was able to see a partial eclipse. Now I don’t know if it was 67% but it was cool to see.

  27. Don’t know how much was cloud cover vs eclipse, but Logan temp fell 2F from 2 to 3pm. Land breeze both at 2 and 3pm

  28. It was cool witnessing what I saw of eclipse and watching it on the tv in the areas that were in the direct path of it.

  29. I was on phone from 3:00-3:20 with an individual in Charlotte, NC. He said he’d never seen so many people outside of his office. He also said that he was surprised it did not et darker. It seemed more to him like dusk where he’d expected a much more noticeable difference.

    We have clouds in Sutton and to me it appears to be a cloudy day.

  30. Since I had no interest in the eclipse, I was told I have no interest in the weather?
    Hmm, I don’t get that?????

    1. That’s weird. Of course it’s related to weather, somehow. Hey, I also love astronomy but I wasn’t that excited about the eclipse. Does that mean I have no interest in astronomy? I don’t think so.

        1. Well, perhaps the person was correct. We all know how you show little passion and interest in whw 😈

  32. In Sudbury there were a lot of clouds, but some sun. During the eclipse, the sun did dim and it did get kind of dark – but more cloudy than dark. Only real noticeable thing was at some point near 2:45 or so, the birds stopped singing; there were crickets – and then a few minutes of pure silence. At around 2:48 or some birds started singing. Almost like morning songs of birds. I have seen thunderstorms where it would get Really dark out. Like night.

    1. Frankly,

      I was NOT the slightest tiniest bit impressed. It did ZIPPO for me. 😀
      But then I am a JADED old man.

      1. You are not! And besides, I notice a lot about nature and stuff, so I was more interested in how the animals might react. I am glad that some people really enjoyed it. But I expected a little more. I thought it might have gotten a little darker. Media! 🙁 Like I said earlier, more interested if we get any severe weather tomorrow night or Weds.

  33. solar eclipse was cool, but the next one will be in 2024 and we will be in totality. That be interesting to see 🙂

  34. I was watching the eclipse from Nauset Beach in Orleans. I can’t say I noticed much of a daylight difference. Glad I wasn’t too excited about it to begin with. Much more interesting was the shark that attacked a seal right off the beach from where I was sitting as the eclipse was beginning. I’ve been to Nauset tons of times but never thought I’d see that!

    1. Now that is something far more interesting than a partial eclipse.
      Awesome.

      I have never seen a shark attack a seal, but I HAVE seen a great white
      at Nauset beach before. (and not recently as it was in the 70s)

      1. That’s pretty cool! Obviously there’s been a lot of buzz about the sharks these past few years but I’m sure they’ve been out there much longer than we’ve really been talking about them.

        1. Absolutely. The one I saw was not very far off shore at all, perhaps 20 feet or so in fairly shallow water. It was high tide, so the water did drop off some. The fin was enormous. They wouldn’t let anyone in the water the whole rest of the day. NO media buzz about that at all.
          Everyone just went about their business.

  35. My enthusiasm was for my father in law who always sailed by the stars. I suspect the view from heaven was even more amazing than from earth.

    I have to admit that my mom was right to keep me indoors in 1963. I had this niggling temptation to look.

  36. And on cue at 3:59 pm once the eclipse was officially over, the sun busts out with blue skies and not one cloud overhead since. With all the clouds/haze in my area at the peak there was barely any real difference in light. 🙁

    Oh well, there is April 8, 2024 to look forward to assuming I live long enough to see it! 😀

  37. NAM continues to be BULLISH run after run after run with severe parameters tomorrow night for western parts of SNE. I don’t buy it.
    If the SREF model highlights an area than I will pay attention.

  38. Not to be a negative Nancy about the 2024 solar eclipse, but April 8th? NO chance of there being clear skies round these parts, no chance

    1. 🙂 🙂

      But far northwest Vermont is a long ways away from the cold, damp Atlantic ocean. 🙂

      Could well be snow cover in some areas under totality up in eastern Canada. Wonder what those temps will do …..

    2. There is a pretty decent change of being able to see that where the path of totality will be.

  40. OK, not sure this has been mentioned before,
    But all those juicy parameters mean nothing if there is no lifting mechanism and models show no precip. For severe, I try to see the simulated radar echoes correspond to juicy
    Parameters or at least close.

  41. Sorry about that with link. Bigger probabilities on SREF upstate NY only 5% chance western areas of SNE then move little further to east during overnight Tuesday.

  42. Right click on desired map and select open in new tab. When it does copy and paste that url to blog.

  44. Slightly concerned with a couple isolated severe storms getting into extreme western MA and northwestern CT tomorrow evening. More likely in VT and eastern NY.

    Anyway, parameters would favor rotation, if an isolated severe cell gets going. The shear is going to be very decent in those areas around and after sunset.

      1. Right. Not east. This is just western areas catching leftovers and late developers basically.

  45. Thanks TK for the heads up.
    I’ll ask you the question with the timing of the front do you feel were dodging the bullet on what could have been a bigger severe weather threat if this front came through during peak heating?

  48. Today’s pattern is an absolute classic for eastern US severe weather. We dodge the bullet here because of the timing, but an active and potentially dangerous day is in store to our west. This is the best overall severe weather setup of the summer for the East.

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