Monday Forecast

114 Comments

11:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28-SEPTEMBER 1)
High pressure remains in control and will hold today. Tropical moisture lilely in the form of a tropical storm will pass south of New England Tuesday night and Wednesday and bring cloudiness, and possibly some rain onto the South Coast as well but this will not turn out to be a major storm or anything lasting. A cold front will cross the region Thursday and deliver a cool air mass to end the week and start September.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-78, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-58. Wind light E.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 68-75, coolest East Coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH with higher gusts late South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of rain early South Coast. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Chance of late-day shower or thunderstorm. Lows from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
At this time Saturday September 2 through Sunday September 3 look dry with a cool start and a warmer finish. Monday September 4 and Tuesday September 5 look humid and showery with drier weather returning to end the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
Looks like a drier pattern with cool start and warmer finish.

114 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. You are indeed first, JPD.

    Thank you, TK.

    What an absolutely glorious stretch of weather we are having. It sure isn’t the first this summer and I suspect it won’t be the last.

      1. Awesome song. I recall the tune as I was dancing in my chair in seconds but darned if I recall the words. Thank you!

  3. Thanks for your support Vicki! They are under a voluntary evacuation order.
    The levee system was designed by looking at 100 years of history.
    The water is almost at the top now. Crest is supposed to be at 6pm tomorrow. Not being taken into consideration is today’s dam controlled releases. That, along with the additional rain will raise the height of the Brazos River even more.
    That is what has all of us even more worried.

  5. Be very careful with pictures of flooding and damage from Harvey that you see on facebook and other social media sites. Yes, it’s been catastrophic and just an awful situation, but to make things worse, there are so many FAKE pictures out there it’s hard to figure out what’s real. A good friend of mine shared a picture of the Houston airport completely flooded and planes totally under water. It has since been proven fake. This kind of thing is disgusting IMO

  6. Thanks, TK.

    Haven’t posted for a while. It’s been a very hectic month.

    While Texas and parts of the southeast get deluged, we’re high and dry and have been that way for quite a while. Grass is turning August brown and much of the vegetation looks parched. When the data is collected for the month August will be on the dry side in most of SNE. Different story in parts of CNE and NNE as some of the fronts that have not impacted us as much have impacted them (eg, last Wednesday/Thursday).

  7. Thanks TK !

    Kind of noticeable on radar that the center has seen a moisture influx into it as it has gotten closer to the Gulf. At least its not that convective, multi-inch per hour band that sat over Houston Saturday night.

  9. Keep in mind this is the first real hurricane since the inception of twitter and the rise of Facebook. I think both those mediums need to improve in terms of what they allow to be posted etc…

  11. The euro has been very consistent in having a Cape Verde tropical system. A few days ago on day 10 showed it in the central Atlantic. Now, a few days later, it’s getting towards the western Atlantic at the day 10 timeframe.

    Today’s 12z run position is something to watch for consistency. Also, the long term seems to be transitioning from flat, zonal flow to meridional. That could be good if a trof is centered on the east coast and less good if the trof is centered to our west. Something to monitor.

      1. Agreed ….. I do wonder if the NHC is identifying it as the system just emerging off the Africa coast.

  12. It is an invest system according to NHC and 80 percent chance to form into a depression next 5 days. Looking at the 12z GFS you could see a front coming across and recurving this out over the water.

    1. That’s true.

      For me personally, I put more stock in the EURO. Though it has its problems, I believe it’s more consistent than the GFS, with less sudden run to run changes.

  14. First, Houston got the torrents of rain, now the wind seems to be an added misery.

    Houston Hobby : NE at 31 mph, gusting to 40

    Houston Bush : NE at 30 mph, gusting to 38

  15. Well….it has happened. Mandatory evacuation has been ordered and my family is now driving out of there. Son in law says they will go southwest to west to north and do a one hour circle around the flooded areas and then to to the northeast part of Texas to stay with relatives. Expecting maybe 3 feet of water in the house. Hope they are wrong because it is a beautiful house. So much for the narrative of the drama. but they are safe.

    1. I’m so sorry to hear this news. I am, however, very thankful that they are safe. My heart breaks for all of the people in Texas.

  16. So much weather to talk about today. Such a beautiful fall-like day here as we prepare to enter (meteorological) fall on Friday. Wonderful stretch for us. Great Lakes trough. Western ridge. East on the trough’s edge with pieces occasionally rotating through. Where have we heard that before? Oh right, the entire summer 🙂 🙂

    That pattern continues at least the next 10 days, and it would not surprise me if it goes beyond then. The difference this month has been dry and seasonable versus wet and seasonable most of June/July. Around 8-10 days out, we should see an especially robust longwave trough set up over the Lakes, bringing a taste of later fall to that region which may include the first frost for parts of the upper Midwest. For us, on the edge, I think the next two weeks average near or a little below average for temps, and below average for precip. What may- or very well may not due to its thermal nature- become “Irma” will regardless slide to our southeast as a strengthening low. Most models have come more into my line of thinking of a stronger storm and a slightly closer pass which will still spare us most impacts but may bring some showers to southeastern areas, along with an enhanced breeze and high surf near or above what was seen during Gert.

    A couple of wildcards in the medium range… one is the remnants of Harvey, which several models still suggest may impact us early next week. Even if that happens, however, it looks very unlikely that would be a high impact event. The other, further in time at ~12-14 days out, is the tropical threat the GFS/ECMWF have been portraying with good consistency. That potential system, Invest 93L, has only recently come off Africa and has an 80% chance, per the NHC, of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 5 days. Many, many days to watch that one. A trend this year has been for models to show a wave developing quickly before or just after it emerges off Africa, then drop or delay development once it fully emerges. Harvey was one of those, as was potential Irma. So far they’re hanging tough on a fairly quick development for 93L, and it’s been over water a little while now, but I’m looking to see if they start to back off on development or if we’re about to get a true Cape Verde hurricane in the Atlantic.

    1. Good discussion. 93L is far, far away but its development seems to be happening at a quicker pace than the ones that preceded it.

  17. Why are some of the local TV folks saying “threat of tropical storm tracking up the coast”? No. That is incorrect. They should be saying that it will be tracking offshore and passing to the south.

    Also, some differences in forecasts, specifically for Friday…

    Ch 5’s forecast is for “clearing and warming” with a high near 80.

    Everyone else has a burst of fall-like air for Friday with their high temps generally upper 60s to lower 70s. What is the Ch 5 met seeing that nobody else is?

  18. 47 this morning at my house. Hellava way to run a summer.
    Oh that’s right, we never got summer going, really. Fits and starts.
    It’s ova. What a friggin disappointment the warm season was, at least for me. As much as I hate it, maybe winter will be good for you winter lovers, because my season was a bit of a bust.

    1. TF Green is probably more representative of your location than Boston is, and they ran 1 degree warmer than normal and 1.6 inch wetter than normal in June, a half degree below normal and a half inch wetter than normal in July, and are running (to-date) one half degree warmer than normal and 1.5 inch drier than normal for August.

      That’s about an average summer. They can’t all be warmer and drier than normal. 🙂

      1. Lies, damn lies and statistics. 🙂 TF green runs a little warmer than me. Worcester runs a little colder because of elevation.
        I don’t give a tinkers damn that the low temps and high temp averaged out “near normal”. I’m asleep for those lows. The sensible weather told me summer was a bust. At least for me. I’m sure a lot of you loved it. Too many crappy over cast days. September is usually nice, but it ain’t summer.
        14 more years till I can retire someplace warm. 😉

        1. Well, at least your summer is not as bad as the end of Houston’s. Count the small blessings. 😉 Let the 14 year countdown begin. 🙂

          1. True, but Houston’s summer goes thru October and sometimes the winter is basically extended fall. My type of climo!
            And if I could figure out a way to make it work, maybe only 10 years to go.
            I’m just sick as I can be of the long, cold and snowy winters, springs that blow, and a short and less than stellar warm season. The older I get, the worse I hate it.

            1. I doubt Houston will have anything to celebrate about a prolonged summer this year and undoubtedly for years to come. I’m glued to coverage, praying for all, and it is simply horrific.

              1. Haven’t watch one minute of it and really don’t care to. I’m not one who has a lot of empathy for much. Too much of my own crap to deal with than to wring my hands over people I don’t know and take on others problems. My wife and I are both that way. Maybe I’m heartless, but it doesn’t affect me so I tune it out. Im sorry for them, but life deals shyte sometimes.

          2. Youve never heard that? Lies, damn lies and stats.
            Just means stats can be a little misleading sometimes. The sensible weather that I felt and observed was cool, wet, and overall pretty crappy. We had a few “heat waves” that probably helped even out the averages. I’m not that into it to figure it out. I just felt like the warm season was punk compared to previous years, that’s all.

            2. The only truth about wet and cool is that this summer was wetter and cooler than that of 2016.

              But I know I’m not going to convince you that the summer was fairly close to normal in both temperature and precipitation based on TF Green, so let’s take a look at 1000 foot high Worcester Airport and we will see that for June they were 1.8F warmer than normal and 1.16 inch wetter than normal, followed by a July that was 0.9F cooler than normal and 0.60 inch wetter than normal, and an August to-date at 0.6F above normal and 1.46 inch to the dry side, for a summer-to-date that is running a mere 0.31 inch to the plus side of normal for rain and 1.5F warmer than normal.

              So technically the summer is running slightly warmer and very slightly wetter than average, and the warm has not been skewed that much by heatwaves as 90 degree days have been pretty much right on the normal. But I realize this is all lies. 😉

              1. Summer was an average summer as far as I can tell. Boston has had
                12 days of 90 or more, about 2 less
                than average. Big deal.

                My only complaint about this Summer was that it went by too damn fast.

  20. IN terms of this summer, yes it has not been overly warm but we were around average. (JP Dave, my thermometer was a few degrees off, got a new one so my summer averages were off) We have had a fair amount of clouds but we have also had good amount of sun. Recently we summer people have been spoiled. This year was the first time in a while that we were around average. This summer I also spent on Nantucket, so I did not have a day above 80 down there it was awesome. I can deal with 80s and 90s but do not like humidity. It makes me sleepy lol and makes me not want to do things. The beach and or pool will be where you find me when it goes over 90. 70s and 80s biking/pool / beach weather. If I am not near water, 70 and 80s are great. Anyways I will say this again, Summer and winter are my favorite seasons but fall is quickly behind that and spring is some what right after that. Summer is fun because its filled with family, friends, BBQ, Pool, Beach/ocean and SEAFOOD. Winter because of snow and skiing. December family (besides for darn finals in the first half of the month) FAll, use to be band season, but last year was the first time I was able to go mountain biking again in a long time. In my opinion best time to do it oh and to heck with the pumpkin crap, I like my cinnomon, Cider and apples. :P. Spring I do not like because of my allergies 🙂 but still do a bunch of stuff. 🙂 If you have something to do in each of the seasons, you will not hate that season, You will look forward to it. Enjoy it as it comes.

    In terms of Texas, I would hope everyone would hope for the best and worry for your fellow citizens . If you do not care about them, why should they care about you? Think about your house and your belongings being destroyed and lost.

    1. Nice summation, Matt. As you know I love all seasons. And as I’ve said, my favorite season is October 1 to September 30.

      Glad you had the opportunity on Nantucket. Son had a summer there related to his college studies. He came home with a horrific case of mono but enjoyed the rest.

    2. I never said I don’t care. I said I didn’t care to watch it. I have my own problems to deal with than to worry about others. And I wouldn’t care if they worried about me or not, that’s my job. Somebody else worried about me changes nothing. And if my house was destroyed, it’s just stuff. I have insurance. And they should too. If you own a house, the bank requires it. They’ll clean it up and move on. Yea, I’m probably a bit cold and practical, but it’s who I am.

      1. Ugh, yea I didn’t even think about the pollen but it has to be very high right now. I never had to deal with allergies as a kid and I’m keeping a close eye on my son to see if he has any signs of them. So far so good

  24. 0z EURO 956 mb tropical system just north of eastern Cuba at hour 240. I see a nice trough over eastern U.S. which should protect us. 0z GFS has recurves this feature out to sea but low pressure system in mid 940s to low 950s.

    1. There is so much time, anything could happen to that trough.
      Odds would favor recurvature out to sea,but I wouldn’t exactly bet
      on that at this point. And a cautionary note: This system has just barely
      emerged off of the coast of Africa. It has not developed into a tropical
      storm or even depression at this point. We know how poorly models handle
      this when it has developed yet.

      However, that being said, the NHC gives this system a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm within 5 days.

      After it actually becomes a Tropical storm, let’s see what the models do with it.

      Ok, and after all of that, all 3 models, the GFS, CMC and the EURO have
      all been consistent in developing this system and bringing it into the
      Western Atlantic.

    1. Outstanding! Thank you for sharing the link.

      I hit the LIKE BUTTON for this meteorologist.

      He’s right up there in my book.

      Thanks again,

  26. Your welcome JPDave. When I see article posts from Ryan I post them here since I know you and others here on this blog enjoy reading his articles.

    1. Now we wait for the 3 global models to see what they have to say.

      BTW, last evening’s Euro gets the Boston area S&E pretty wet with amounts
      approaching 1/2 inch. I have a feeling this morning’s run will be a bit
      farther South and East than last nights’ run, but nothing would surprise me
      these days. 😀

  29. 9:57AM update from the Taunton NWS office, re: possible Irma or Not:

    .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/…
    Tonight and Wednesday..

    All models are in very good agreement on the track and
    intensification of the storm system as it emerges from the
    Carolinas early this evening. The GFS is strongest and farthest
    north, with the ECMWF farthest south and the NAM in between —
    but all falling within a degree or two south of the benchmark of
    40N/70W…or roughly 100-140 miles south of Nantucket. Aided by
    an advancing upper low, a frontal boundary, and swift flow
    aloft, the system will intensify to below 990 mb by non-tropical
    processes as it passes south of Nantucket late tonight.

    Not much change from yesterday`s thinking in terms of rainfall
    amounts. We are forecasting a little more than 1 inch of rain
    over Nantucket, tapering to one-quarter to one-half inch of rain
    across Rhode Island and interior southeast MA.

  30. I may be missing something, but looking at the NYC radar, it appears that
    the developing system off of the Carolina’s appears to be bumping into the dry
    air up this way and Northward progress of the precipitation shield is almost
    non-existent. Perhaps it can be attributed to the movement of the developing
    system itself?

    Looking at this water vapor loop, I would say it is due to the dry air in place here
    and not the movement of the developing system????

    http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20170829&endTime=-1&duration=12

  34. Per the TWC, a Harris County Flood Warning System rain gauge near Friendswood, Texas has reported a four-day storm total of 49.20 inches through early Tuesday. If this total is confirmed, Harvey will have broken the Lower 48 U.S. rainfall record for any tropical storm or hurricane.

      1. Fortunately for Houston, it looks like the bullseye for the heaviest rain is finally beginning to slide east of the Metro area. It has been unbelievable watching the radar the past 4 days and seeing the unrelenting heavy rain over the same areas.

  35. Hmmm, food for thought.

    1. 12Z GFS has lost Invest 93L
    2. 12Z CMC puts it in a very precarious position for SNE.

    Surface

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017082912/gem_mslp_wind_atl_41.png

    500mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017082912/gem_z500a_atl_41.png

    200 mb

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2017082912/gem_uv200_atl_41.png

    Disclaimer…

    1. It’s the CMC
    2. The storm hasn’t formed yet
    3. Just because this is depicted, that is one looooong way from actually verifying

    Even so, something to monitor at least.

    Waiting on the Euro as I am most curious to see what it shows.

  36. 93L is so far away. Already seeing seriously excessive hype for it, not here but elsewhere. GFS has lost it, which is something I mentioned yesterday as a strong possibility since that has happened to literally every wave the models have tried to develop that far east this season. We’ll see if more models drop it. Even if they do, they could easily pick it up again later, a la Harvey. That’s why it’s best to just sit back and watch for now.

  37. Heading up to lake Champlain vermont side. Its an end to a two year camping droight. What better way to end a great summer break

    1. If you swim in the lake, watch out for those damn lampreys!!
      There are far too many of those damn things in the lake.

  38. Hello everyone.
    I’ve come out of lurking mode to ask ask a question as I know you folks are the best at this stuff.

    I’ve been following the 93L developments. I understand it’s not formed yet and have read it’s a long way out, like 10 days-2 weeks? Is this correct?

    I’m going on a cruise (yes, a chance one takes during hurricane season. but I also often take a vacations february so I guess I’m just sucker for punishment and weather related anxiety!) to Bermuda. Leaves Friday. We’ll be in Bermuda Sun-Wed and return to Boston next Fri 9/8.

    1. You need to wait for TK’s expertise. Based on what I see, and remember I am NOT a Met, it’s too tough to tell right now. IF one goes strictly by the CMC,
      you would be perfectly fine.

      The Euro has it in “about” the same position on 9/6 as the CMC. IF that were
      to hold the rest of the run, then with the Euro you would be fine.

      Caveat: This system has NOT yet developed into a tropical storm. The models
      have not been very good at forecasting a tropical entity that has not yet
      formed.

      Given all of that, my guess (this is just I and my estimation only) is that
      you would be fine.

      AGAIN, please check in with TK as he is the expert. I sure am NOT. 😀

  39. 12z EURO wants to bring 1000 mb low pressure into Louisiana in about a week from now. Last thing Louisiana and Texas need is rain.
    The EURO also has a 950mb low north of the Bahamas at hour 240.

  41. Closer to home hopefully the 12z EURO is wrong for next week as its trying to develop a weak system in the Gulf Of Mexico.

    3. nhc now has irma as 10% chance. so we get a storm for sure, but as wxwatcher
      said all along, possibly not tropical.

  43. All summer, the Bermuda high has been displaced a bit further east than its average summer position.

    Wouldn’t it be something if in 10 days, the Bermuda high is further west than its been all summer.

    Don’t like the trend towards meriodinal flow with deep trofs and strong ridges around that time period.

  44. With Harvey circulation back over the gulf, hurricane hunters have flown a mission into it this afternoon. Pressure at 995 mb. Max flight wind of 46 knots.

    1. I suppose there is a slight possibility that it becomes a hurricane
      before the next landfall. 46 knots is very nearly 53 mph. Needs to increase
      21 mph. Not likely, but who knows.

  46. Latest from NHC. System 10 is DEAD as far as tropical development is concerned.
    They now give it a GOOSE EGG as in 0% chance of developing now or in the next
    few days. ZERO, NADA! DONE!

    Just a routine extra-tropical cyclone.

  47. And once again too many weathercasters assuming something is a definite and talking about “Irma”.

    New post!

    1. 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀
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      😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀
      😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

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