4:46PM
DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 29-SEPTEMBER 2)
Tropical moisture will pass south of New England tonight and early Wednesday, skirting the South Coast with rain and otherwise bringing some cloudiness to the region. A cold front traverses the region later Thursday with a shower and thunderstorm threat. A cool/dry air mass arrives for the end of the week including the start of the Labor Day weekend.
THROUGH EVENING: Mainly cloudy. Temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Wind light NE to E.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. A period of rain possible after midnight favoring Islands & Cape Cod. Lows 52-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts Nantucket.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning including a risk of rain early on Nantucket. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered mid to late afternoon showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 70-75 South Coast, 75-80 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the lower 40s interior valleys to lower 50s coast. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)
Expecting 2 pushes of tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Harvey, the first largely failing and producing only isolated showers on September 3, the second combining with a trough from the west and bringing a better chance of showers on Labor Day, September 4. Additional showers/thunderstorms possible at times during the remainder of the period as a trough sets up in the Great Lakes and high pressure builds off the Atlantic Coast.
DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)
Same general pattern expected with temperatures variable but trending to above normal, with a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms, but the forecast is lower than average confidence at this point.
1st!!!!
Many thanks TK.
Here is the latest NYC radar.
It seems that TK is MORE tuned in than most, including the models. 😀 😀 😀
https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0&rand=25067346&lat=0&lon=0&label=you
I need to be. My August forecast sucked. 😛
Thanks TK !
http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KBPT.html
Texas/Louisiana border getting hit hard.
Beaumont, TX : 5 inches of rain the past 3 hours.
http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KBPT.html
https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/la/lake-charles/lch/
Thank you, TK. Saturday looked like a good day for a taco party
I have 2 major outdoor events for Sunday. At the moment I’m not worried about either. 🙂
Good news. With my family, one can never count on the date until it is on top of it
TK – Was your August forecast all THAT bad? I don’t recall what it was but don’t beat yourself up over it. Your accuracy is always impeccable from my standpoint.
The temp forecast was not too bad but I under-forecast the western Atlantic high pressure and it was a lot drier in most locations than I expected.
One location in Texas reported 51.88 inches!
Before the rain gauge stopped working…
Trying to decide whether to shoot for a long weekend on the boat at Vineyard Haven, or head back north through the canal a week early. Fingers crossed that the Monday rain is delayed a bit until after sunset…
Speaking of which, are we thinking a medium duration, cloudy, showery day like today but wetter, or just general evening thunderstorm chances?
I notice that dry air is working into the western flank of Houston. Does this mean that rains will end overnight and residents will wake up to at least dry skies in the morning?
Yes.
Wouldn’t surprise me if many in Houston are seeing peaks of sun on the western horizon as it comes close to setting soon.
As little as it is, I sure hope that before night arrives they can have something as positive as a little sunshine
The 18Z GFS now has Invest 93L back and brings a 949 mb hurricane to the Gulf coast of Florida. Again too early to know anything other than the GFS has it back again.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017082918/gfs_mslp_wind_seus_51.png
Euro still showing it somewhat intense too.
Cedar Bayou = 51.88 inches!
According to Eric, Beaumont Texas could get 40″ overnight.
Harvey is finally moving out of the Gulf.
Death toll due to Harvey is currently at 18. 🙁
It is now up to 22…and probably still counting. 🙁
Sadly, it’s up to 30 now, according to the New York Times (Harvey Live Updates: Waters Still Rising as Death Toll From Storm Reaches 30 – The New York Times 8/30/17, 2:52 AM)
My goodness
Look at the hourly rainfall rates ….
http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/KBPT.html
8.05 inches in a 3 hr period between 10 and 1 am CDT in Beaumont/Port Arthur TX area.
25 inches in the last 24 hrs
Do you have school today? Wow! 3:20 AM
Yes 🙂
Just happened to be awake for a bit and thought I’d look at what was happening, lol …..
lol
Euro, GFS and CMC all still have this next tropical system. Euro seems to
be the strongest of them all. Needs to be watched carefully.
euro has 941 mb at day 10. Yes, I know the storm had not officially formed, but
the consistency has been amazing. We shall see what happens.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017083000/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif
Nantucket : 1.46
Plymouth : 0.51
Logan : .07
Rainfall overnight, (inches)
This would have been a surprise snowstorm for SE MA in winter… 😛
New post!