Wednesday Forecast

65 Comments

7:42AM

Another slight format skew today on account of Labor Day Weekend upcoming…

DAYS 1-6 (AUGUST 30-SEPTEMBER 4)
Low pressure tossed a bit of rain further north into eastern MA and RI than I expected as it expanded during its intensification overnight. This is a non-tropical system and will move away today. The remainder of the forecast is largely unchanged with a warmer day expected Thursday, a cold front bringing cooler/dry air for Friday-Saturday, then a little uncertainty based on where the remains of Harvey go. For now, staying with yesterday’s idea, but a whole lot of the Sunday-Monday period may end up rain-free as well.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy morning with rain gradually tapering off southeastern MA and a few showers dissipating over central MA and southwestern NH. Clearing this afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered mid to late afternoon showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 70-75 South Coast, 75-80 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the lower 40s interior valleys to lower 50s coast. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers early. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to upper 70s.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the lower 80s to lower 90s.

DAYS 7-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-8)
A more humid pattern with episodes of showers/thunderstorms possible. Temperatures near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)
Same general pattern expected with temperatures near to above normal.

65 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK. Last night’s rain was very much welcome. Per the NHC, advisories are likely to be initiated at 11AM on a tropical depression in the east Atlantic, formerly known as Invest 93L. With the failure of the East Coast storm to become tropical, it looks like that one will be “Irma”.

    1. Kinda of looks like this one might make its way across the Atlantic. Looking like a healthy storm.

  4. I am somewhat surprised that Irma never developed into a named storm given the Gulf-stream offshore. I would be curious as to what happened with that.

    1. I think too much shear and I’m not sure it was a warm core storm. I believe you find the warmest air in a hurricane in its eye or center. …. I think this system was more cold core.

  5. Update: NHC has confirmed advisories will be initiated at 11AM. The system will be classified as Irma straight away, not a depression.

  6. Thanks TK
    0z GFS wants to take that system which in all likelihood will be Irma up the east coast toward the Outer Banks than track it close to 40 N 70 W 6z GFS no where near the east coast. 0z EURO at hour 240 has it coming into the Bahamas as a very strong system with the pressure at 941mb.

  8. 2 concerns with said Atlantic system :

    1) except for local services, resources to support a second big hit in a location away from Texas may be thin.

    2) here comes Labor Day weekend and the likelihood that a medium to long range awareness by the public of this system is likely to be mostly missed.

  9. Plenty of time to track it. I would love to see what the 6z GFS is showing and keeping it a fish storm and away from the U.S.

  10. Good morning and thank you TK.

    This new tropical entity looks interesting. By no means does that mean
    it will get up here. It is just something to monitor and to be aware that it is out there. 😀

  11. Will be tracking this for more than a week as it makes its track across the Atlantic.
    This tweet I saw on twitter from James Belanger who is a senior meteorological scientist which would not be good for Gulf Coast states.
    Probability of #93L tracking into the Gulf now up to 38% per latest calibrated #ECMWF ensembles. A more western track is now more likely.

  12. Interesting. I had to do a double look out the window. I do not usually see clouds moving WSW out here.

  15. When you guys were saying that Irma has formed, my first thought was “our” Irma but after going to the NHC site, it is the one off Africa formerly 93L. Is she an east coast threat or Gulf threat? I myself would prefer a fish storm as I probably speak for most.

  19. One thing is for sure, conditions are ripe for this thing to develop into a major storm and it is going to be in a precarious position for the Caribbean and US coastlines in about 5 days. Where it goes from there is anyone’s guess at this point. It surely would be a disaster of all proportions if it ends up anywhere in the western Gulf like the Euro ensembles are showing.

  20. You never want to see a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico since it will hit land no matter where it tracks.

  21. 12z GFS also wants to develop another tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico next week potentially affecting some of the same areas Harvey impacted.

  24. A bit early to speculate much on Irma’s track.

    I already see a lot of hype in the media how it’s going to be a major East Coast hurricane or a repeat of Harvey in the Gulf. Nobody knows yet. That’s just hype-talk. And it’s not necessary.

  26. Both EURO and GFS 12z runs showing a power house named Irma. Both models have it in different locations.

    1. I watch the coverage and simply cannot believe my eyes. It is horrific. Thank you for sharing the photo.

        1. At least it lost a new storm in the gulf heading along the Texas coast next week but there is going to be a lot of moisture still in the Gulf.

  30. That storm as modeled would be a high end Category 2 to low end Category 3. I don’t think it will happen, but have there been any similar storms like that modeled one before?

    1. I thought the GFS has been bad with pressures since the upgrade but it did call the rapid deepening of Harvey before the Euro. Euro has a deep storm but not low 900’s like the GFS.

  31. Yankees are not verge of losing both games in the doubleheader against the Indians. If we could win tonight against Toronto we can go into the 4 game weekend series with the Yankees 5.5 games up.

  32. Yeah not a good day for the Yankees or for that matter a good series for them as they were swept by the Indians.

  33. Weatherbee….just wondering if you are reading. I’m hoping your daughter and family found safety

    1. It will be quite a stretch to watch. There will be quite a few things to take into account. The Atlantic ridge extended west (how strong is that westward extent), a digging trough (how deep), will it pick it up/cause a northwest turn or leave it aloned what is going on on the gulf at that point. I assume in the coming days you will be looking for trends 🙂 but a lot can still change this far out.

  35. Here’s one big and obvious caution…

    The GFS has no idea on tropical cyclone intensity…

  36. 0z EURO takes Irma into Cuba
    0z GFS curves Irma back to U.S. and makes a landfall in Maine as 954 mb low.

  37. Always interesting to watch the model solutions that come out. Of course I take all with huge bucket load of salt.
    6z GFS now has Irma making a landfall in Outer Banks of NC travels up to Delmarva Peninsula then into the Hudson River Valley of NY which is just west of SNE. To me that track looks a little similar to Irene where a landfall happens in Outer Banks. Where it differs after is the 6z GFS has Irma over land after that coming up here instead of emerging just off the coast like Irene did after making that landfall in the Outer Banks.

  38. Ignoring Irma altogether, note the huge difference between the upper air pattern over the East at days 8-9 between the 0z and 6z GFS. The two runs are total opposites. Until that (and more) gets settled out, very large model swings will continue.

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