Saturday Forecast

80 Comments

9:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)
A cool start to Labor Day Weekend especially this morning but it does recover to 70+ many areas this afternoon while staying cooler in coastal areas. For the Saturday-Monday “weekend”, Saturday and Monday will be the dry days, with Monday having the feel of summer back. In-between, however, is the problem, and that will be as the remains of Harvey come through, not with much of any wind, but some wet weather. Steadiest rain should arrive in the morning and exit around midday from southwest to northeast, but the actual center of what used to be Hurricane Harvey has to come across the region during the afternoon and will still trigger some additional showers and possible thunderstorms, so going ahead with any outdoor plans in the afternoon will be risky at best. When we get to Tuesday, it will feel like mid summer ahead of a cold front, and that front will be slow to move in but will do so on Wednesday with a better chance of wet weather again.
TODAY: Sunshine filtered to dimmed by high clouds. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Chance of rain before dawn. Lows 55-62. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Overcast with a period of rain morning and midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with scattered showers/thunderstorms remainder of day. Highs 65-72. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 58-64. Wind light W.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-83, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 80s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)
The weather pattern is expected to feature a ridge of high pressure off the Atlantic Coast and a trough of low pressure over the east central US with humid and mild to warm weather with episodes of showers the result in this area. We will also be watching the progress of Hurricane Irma.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)
No major changes from the 6-10 period expected at this time. A lot of fine tuning to come.

80 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  6. Good morning, everyone!

    A low of 38 here in Taunton at dawn’s early light this morning.

    Enjoy the day and weekend!

  9. Thanks TK. A couple of record daily lows this morning, including at Providence and Bradley Airport, CT. Don’t see too many of those set these days… already rebounding nicely though.

    Irma weakened just a hair last night, as TK predicted, back to a strong CAT 2. These are small fluctuations, however, and it continues to straddle the border between CAT 2 and 3. Will remain a powerful hurricane for many days to come. Still in the fantasy land range for a long term track. I would say by maybe Wednesday or Thursday, we can start to make some meaningful predictions.

  10. I had a moment to put pencil to paper and figure Taunton’s precipitation totals for the year and the last 5 1/2 years:

    A very dry summer has wiped out our excess in precip. Through August, we are at -.71 for the year, a total of 32.90″

    The lawns and trees are looking fatigued at the lack of rain. For the first time that I can remember, the City of Taunton has put voluntary restrictions on things like washing cars, watering lawns and gardens.

    Beginning with January, 2012, Taunton is -34.51″ behind in average rainfall. Average rainfall at NWS-BOX is 51.09″.

    1. Wow. Thank you for taking the time to out the information together Excellent figures. I, as well as others, were skeptical when the powers that be…not here…. announced the drought was over. It seems we need more than a few months to make that claim.

  11. A quick question:

    I was trying to figure tropical cyclone wind speeds and categories based on the predicted/modeled pressure.

    I found a chart “Dvorak Current Intensity Chart”
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

    Why do Northwest Pacific hurricanes have to be a lower pressure (MSLP) to be rated a Category 5 hurricane while Atlantic storms can have a slightly higher pressure to be a Cat 5?

    What goes on in the Atlantic that doesn’t in the Pacific? Why can’t the standard be the same?

    1. I use that same site. I saw that before but didn’t have the brains to ask
      the excellent question you have asked. To answer, I have not a clue.

      Now, we’ll all be curious to know the answer to that one.

    2. You may be surprised how different the West Pacific is from the Atlantic. The main reason for the Dvorak pressure difference is that mean pressures in the West Pacific tend to be considerably lower than in the Atlantic. Cyclone wind intensity is much more about deviation from the mean pressure compared to absolute minimum pressure. Even in the Atlantic, the Caribbean tends to have lower pressure than the open tropical Atlantic, so a storm like Irma is likely to, on average, have higher pressure than a similar storm in the Caribbean.

      There are other substantial differences between basins as well. A vertically deeper troposphere in the West Pacific, for example, allows many storms out there to develop stronger/deeper convection than most in the Atlantic because storm tops can extend higher before hitting the stratosphere. But as for the Dvorak technique, it’s mostly about mean pressures. And while not perfect, once you’re familiar with it and its quirks, it’s a time-tested and well esteemed technique for intensity estimation in the absence of direct observations.

    1. Just double checking. These can both change any second. Correct?

      Which begs the question…..How far out can a hurricanes path be reliably predicted .

      1. Of course they can.

        Tk can answer the 2nd question. Certainly not 9 or 10 days.
        5 days gives a decent idea, better at 3. 😀

  18. WxWatcher:

    I totally respect your privacy and anonymity on this blog, but I am curious to know what school you attend. I believe you’re a rising senior, but where?

    1. Not a problem, I go to Plymouth State, in New Hampshire. One of a few meteorology schools in New England. Not the biggest program, but I’ve found it a good fit for me. And yes, this will be my senior year, which I can hardly believe. I’ll be heading up there for the semester on Monday.

      1. Thanks for sharing, WxWeather. As a high school teacher, I like to know where my seniors are headed and how they are doing once they get there. I have had a few of my students (I teach Spanish) study Meteorology in college. Some of them attended Lyndon State.
        Plymouth State is blessed to have you on its campus and Matt on at his. You both seem to have very special talents in your fields and are sharp as tacks, and I wish you both the very best as y’all start a very important and exciting academic year!!!

        1. Thanks captain, I will be finishing my degree this fall with advance marine bio and globalization and climate for classes. I will be presenting my findings on my summer resresearch in November. Looking atgrad school as well

        2. Captain, interesting that you teach Spanish.

          Our daughter teaches Spanish at Medfield High School.
          She graduated from BC and then while teaching earned
          her Masters At Framingham State.

      1. You know that’s probably not the outcome. It’s 9 days off. But you know that. Wake me up on this thing next Friday.
        I’m hoping for OTS. Nobody needs a landfall from this.

        1. Of course, but I am having a jolly good time watching
          the various outcomes from all of the models. Give it a few more days and we should start to see a bit more consistency.

          1. I’m enjoying watching it develop also. It is some of the best for those who love weather. Nothing like anticipation.

  20. EURO bad for the Bahamas but good news for U.S. east coast. Looks like that ridge is a little weaker allowing an escape for Irma instead of turn back to the coast like GFS has been showing.

    1. And on the 0Z it will slam into Charleston or Cape Hatteras or Norfolk Va or NYC or Buzzards bay. Who knows at this point. 😀 😀 😀

  21. Will see what fantasy solution the 18z GFS comes out with. Last evenings 18z run had 946 mb storm hitting NYC.

    1. Can’t wait for that one. Of course I won’t be home for the results, but
      I’ll have my Samsung with me, so I can get a peek at it, I hope. 😀 😀

  22. FOXBORO — On Saturday, the Patriots made a fairly large move by trading third-string quarterback Jacoby Brissett to the Colts in exchange for receiver Phillip Dorsett.

      1. He wasn’t going to be active this season anyway. They needed another receiver type that can return kicks and punts.

    1. I’ve been seeing that on FB. I LOVE LOVE LOVE it. But we all know it isn’t unusual for Mt Washington this time of year. It is just a fun tease ❄️❄️❄️❄️

      2. Since i am back in shape i been hiking and mt biking again those mts i like to do in the fall if i have time so to be honest the snow can wait for a bit

          1. Thanks, Vicki 🙂 I been having a blast this summer, with the research on Nantucket, going biking, swimming, learned some new skills of course within the field but also on the side with my summer job, was suppose to be the host, but ended up helping with the Bartender lol. I been getting back in shape as the summer has progressed and I still have a ways to go, but my goal is to be back to my pre-ski injury shape by January 1st. (this was my new years resolution) To get back to being my active self again 🙂 I am not a big fan of the GYM, My Gym is the outdoors.

  27. GFS has been all over the places with landfall of Irma between Nova Scotia and Mid Atlantic. Crushing blow to Tidewater of Virginia on that run.

  28. San Francisco area a bit toasty. Macs twin is in Moraga..just east…and it was 107 today. Not quite what they are Used to

    1. NHC forecast positions and intensity

      FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

      INIT 03/0900Z 18.0N 47.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
      12H 03/1800Z 17.5N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
      24H 04/0600Z 16.8N 51.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
      36H 04/1800Z 16.5N 53.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
      48H 05/0600Z 16.5N 55.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
      72H 06/0600Z 17.8N 60.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
      96H 07/0600Z 20.0N 66.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
      120H 08/0600Z 22.5N 71.5W 115 KT 130 MPH

      CONE

      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT11/refresh/AL112017_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/085443_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

      Right now, it is looking more and more like an East Coast landfall. As I said yesterday, I favor the Carolina’s, however, it is still very early. The whole East Coast is under the threat.

      I find myself watching these models exactly the same way I watch then with
      a pending snowstorm.

    1. Agree. We’ll keep monitoring as there is still time for changes, even
      significant changes. The fact that the GFS and Euro are fairly similar
      is frightening.

      We’ll know much more when the hurricane models come into range.

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