Tuesday Forecast

198 Comments

4:38PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)
Warm and more humid air is in place and a cold front will attempt to cross the region starting tonight but will get hung up by an upper level air flow that is blowing more from south to north, parallel to the front, and now allowing it any progress until it finally gets kicked along during Thursday. Initially the first thrust of showers/thunderstorms will attempt to enter southeastern New England tonight but not really make it, and then the boundary will be close enough to generate episodic showers/storms by early Wednesday lasting until early Thursday, followed by a drying trend. Still looking for one more front to come along with a possible shower on Friday, then this will be followed by a cooler Canadian air mass by Saturday.
THROUGH EVENING: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm may reach north central MA and southwestern NH. Temperatures 70s South Coast, 80s elsewhere. Humid. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms, mainly well west of Boston from eastern CT through central MA and southwestern NH. Humid. Lows 63-68. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 70-75. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers most likely in the morning, diminishing chance thereafter. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SATURDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)
Fair with a cool start then a warming trend September 10-12. With the track of Irma still to be determined, if we were to see remnant rain from it, this would most likely occur late in this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)
Drier weather is expected much of this period with a cooler start and warmer finish.

198 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

    1. They’re not really forecasting a landfall point yet. They just have to have a forecast position. I bet there is in-house debate right now about making some changes.

      1. Good. This is needs to go out to sea although with a dear friend who was captain of a SeaLand vessel….that is not quite as harmless as it sounds.

        1. I still have a strong feeling it ends up passing largely E of Florida, and I know this is not currently popular opinion.

    1. Slow moving boundary. It finally gets into eastern areas tomorrow but for now it’s staying there. The base convection should let go around 7 or 8PM with a lull to follow.

  12. Well off to the Sox game. Weather is good enough, and let’s hope for a better game outcome than what’s been going on lately. Ugh!

      1. Not squat will happen to the Sox. Baseball teams have been stealing signs since the game was invented. Yet, the pats lost a 1st rounder and fined out the wazoo for, as BB said, taping something that 80,000 people could see with their own eyes.
        Ridiculous

        1. I no longer follow baseball enough to know one way or the other. Agree on pats comments and extend those to deflate…. I know every page of every piece of documentation on the pats. If you can’t beat them….attack with false allegations. Arghhhhhhhh

  13. Unfortunately, Irma will make a direct hit in the US. The question remains where. An OTS route is unlikely

      1. Because of the interaction with land en route to the US, it’s likely Irma weakens to a cat 4. Yet, devastation still remains a possibility and cat 4 is no joke.

        1. The upper air may knock it down further, at least hoping that takes place. If it decides to interact with Cuba but never landfall there, then turn sooner and go east of FL, it may be down to CAT 3 (still major) if it ends up in the Carolinas.

          Still some unanswered questions…

  14. I still have a significant feeling that we’re not done seeing shifting in the forecast path and eventual track. Not giving up on the earlier turn.

      1. Hopefully coming over the mountains will shear it some and weaken it a bit. Nobody neeeds this.
        Really really hope Jose turns and goes OTS eventually. Back to back storms are bad enough (Harvey and Irma). Add another in Jose with a US land fall would tax FEMA and emergency management to the breaking point.

  15. FWIW, DT shared your thinking TK but this morning finally gave up. He cited Porto Rico as a “benchmark.”

    1. Combined with the pressure fall, look at the last few hours of satellite (Dvorak).

      This has a shot at getting to 200 mph and going sub 920 if not to around 910 mb with what I believe is an additional intensification spurt currently.

      1. I don’t know the topography of those islands, but this thing just might reshape the low lying areas of those northernmost islands.

  19. Fortunately, I believe Jose takes that turn and harmlessly passes out to sea due to the interaction with the Atlantic H and a trough in the east.

      1. There are vulnerable locations, but in general, yes, they will come through it better than South Florida came through Andrew.

  21. On its current trajectory, the eye passes north of Antigua and makes a b-line for the British Virgin Islands.

  22. Seeing reports the Red Sox were “caught stealing” signs by electronic means against the Yankees. Details fuzzy at this point but involves a trainer with an iwatch with the tv broadcast relaying the signals to runners at 2nd base. Spygate MLB version anyone? One can say stealing signs has been part of the game for a long time. But this? This is taking it to a different level. IF true, I am so done with this dirt bag team. The Eck and Price/Pedroia episode started it, and this will end it for me. This team is going nowhere, time to focus on the Pats

    3. To be fair…and I don’t follow sox…..a lot of people immediately condemned Brady and look how wrong they were. I love social media. My biggest pet peeve, however, is that it seems to empower guilty verdicts.

      Just a thought 🙂

            1. I firmly believe Brady knew what was going on. Did the penalty fit the crime? Hell no. But he paid his dues and went on to win the SB 😀

        2. Ohhh…well then there ya go. I’ll still leave final decisionto those who know all the facts. Not my place because I do not

    4. Ah, baseball has been trying to steal signs for 100 years. Used to do it with binoculars from the bull pen. This is no different,,just using modern technology. Cleveland has done it for years. Makes no difference to me.

  25. HWRF has IMRA striking the keys at 919 MB

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2017090518/hwrf_mslp_wind_11L_40.png

    The HMON has IRMA at 854 MB just before striking South Florida

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017090518/hmon_mslp_wind_11L_36.png

    And 851 MB after BASHING on of the Keys

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017090518/hmon_mslp_wind_11L_37.png

    and 885 MB inland quite a way and affecting ALL of South Florida

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2017090518/hmon_mslp_wind_11L_38.png

    1. Antigua is now in that outer core of Irma. Conditions rapidly deteriorating as Irma and it’s strongest inner core makes its closest pass. I feel for those folk and hopefully tourists took precaution and evacuated.

    1. I knew that 🙂

      Question…totally unrelated. When do you think best window for flu shot is? Had shot last year…got full fledged flu..but the shot last yesterday didn’t work. Want to do my best to avoid that horror show again this year

      Thank you, sir!!

        1. Hmmmm. I never did until I had flu in early 2000s. Then I did. I figure it cannot hurt but then as we know it doesn’t always help 🙂

  30. Looking to me like the island of Barbuda, just north of Antigua is going to take the direct hit from the eyewall. This would be somewhat good news as that island is much more sparsely populated.

  35. NWS Hurricane Warning statement for St Thomas and St John, US Virgin Islands:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VIZ001&warncounty=VIC030&firewxzone=VIZ001&local_place1=Charlotte Amalie East VI&product1=Hurricane+Warning&lat=18.3458&lon=-64.9114#.Wa9UYU32bIU

    Strong wording and calling for winds to 145mph. If you have ever been there, those islands are very hilly. Lots of homes on those hills that are elevated and susceptible to the higher winds. Best they can hope for is a jog north.

  36. 11PM Update and Irma holding strong at 185mph and 916mb.

    The island of Barbuda is in the eyewall and taking a direct hit. No reports have come in from Antigua’s airport since 10PM when the wind was gusting to 50mph. I presume conditions rapidly deteriorated there.

  38. Good early morning.

    From NHC: 5 AM AST, 185 mph 914 mb

    https://dsx.weather.com/util/image/map/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL11_storm_info_1280x720.jpg

    Track plots

    https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_11

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

    euro ensembles

    http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090512_ECENS.png?8695221

    gfs ensembles

    http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090518_GEFS.png?34195633

  43. Update will be this afternoon again.

    Still leaning with sooner turn for Irma, possibly no FL landfall, but they should prepare for one, obviously.

  44. It would appear that the eastward shift TK has been telling us is coming is indeed happening. Most models now keep Irma east of Florida (barely), with a landfall in the Carolinas. Some ensembles miss the US entirely. I’m sure we’ll see more shifting today. Morning reconnaissance mission finding Irma still an extremely dangerous Cat 5 storm, perhaps just a bit weaker than last night. Hurricanes cannot maintain such intensities for long. The fact that Irma has been so strong for so long is remarkable.

    1. Miss the east coast entirely? Where have I heard that 😉

      That said, If it doesn’t shift even more east soon, I’m going to start freezing bags of water.

  45. Worst scenerio for east coast is if Irma goes enough east after affecting FL (bad for them it looks anyway) and goes just off the coast and goes north. It’s anyone’s guess. Watch and wait. (and prepare for those where landfall is most likely).

    For us, now, what is the chance for severe weather today besides possible flooding? Sun is out in Sudbury now. NWS mentioned earlier about possible rotating storms later on. We can hear little rumbles of thunder in western distance now.

  47. Very strong winds being detected by radar in that storm moving into southern CT/RI. Should be severe warned.

  51. There was some sunshine breaking out here in advance of that line approaching.
    I wonder how bad it will be? Also, I did notice some slight rotation with it.

  52. The eye of Irma has now passed directly over the islands of Barbuda, Anguilla, and St. Martin. Sustained winds of 118mph with gusts over 155mph were reported on Barbuda before the anemometer broke. Anguilla also reported 117 mph sustained winds.

    Tremendous damage on St. Martin as can be seen on some of the early pictures and videos now emerging from the island…

    https://youtu.be/qKEmbxdI9gM

  54. Some scary news coming out of St Martin. The four “most solid” buildings on Saint Martin, shared by France and the Netherlands, were destroyed, according to the French Interior Minister. Some 80,000 people live on the island and many refused to leave their homes and seek shelter.

    According to France, all communication lines are down to the islands of St Martin, Anguilla, and Barbuda, each of which sustained a direct hit from Irma.

  63. Sad part with that storm is one person lost their life in New London and another was injured as an uprooted tree crushed a car according to a tweet I just read from Ryan Hanrahan .
    You don’t usually see big storms in southeastern CT.

  65. Mark you may see some action this afternoon. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    Cold front draped over Connecticut now. Severe weather threat this afternoon is east of I-91.

  67. We just got hammered in Lakeville. I think my rain gauge peaked at about 1.77″/hour rainfall rate and there was pretty steady lightning.

  69. With the eastward shift of Irma, does this mean a much greater possibility of a direct hit for the Mid-Atlantic and even here as well?

    This morning NBC Boston has Irma up here on their 10-day forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday. As far back as last Saturday Mike Waunkum had Irma scheduled for the 13th.

    I had better stock up on size D batteries. Based on experience they tend to go fast in the stores more quickly then the other sizes.

      1. Philip I went to Amazon….nothing for Amazon prime available now and.none available otherwise to ship for at least 4-5 days.

  70. One thing I notice about the GFS and EURO op runs ….

    Ignoring the initialized pressures …..

    From now til about 48 hrs out, they have the hurricane’s pressure remain steady or maybe even rise a bit.

    But, they both start to intensify the hurricane thereafter.

    So, I wouldn’t be surprised by yet another strengthening phase after some possible weakening the next 36 hrs.

      2. That would mean a SNE landfall now very much in the mix as well. Now to start worrying about my Mid-Atlantic relatives.

  76. TK – can I get your thoughts on the Kingston area today around 5-7 pm? You know our football coaches will have practice in a monsoon but obviously I need to take safety into consideration.

      1. I am cancelling. No sense in having all of our parents drive the players only to have them vacate the field 10 minutes later. I appreciate your input.

  79. We already saw wind damage with a severe thunderstorm this morning in southeastern CT. Will see if any more fire. SPC has eastern areas of SNE in marginal risk.

  80. Eye just passed directly over the British Virgin Islands including Tortola, Virgin Gorda, and Jost Van Dyck.

    Southern portion of the eyewall is now ravaging St John and St Thomas.

    Last report from St Thomas, the wind was gusting to 93 at 11:53AM. There have been no further reports since.

    The St Thomas Marriott webcam is STILL WORKING:
    http://www.earthcam.com/usa/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas

    I cannot get the video to play but you can see the still photo images at the bottom of the page that have been recorded every 60 sec. You can see how quickly the visibility has dropped.

  83. 12z GFS takes Irma over Miami again sub 900 mb with second landfall near Savannah, GA. Then it hooks left and the remnants end up in Illinois!

  84. SC has declared a state of emergency to start preparations. No evacuations yet. I am not finding that NC has done the same but an not as FS I,sir with NC news sources so may have missed it

  85. 2PM AST Imra update.

    Winds remain at 185 mb, however, pressure is up a bit to 920 mb.

    Moving WNW at 26 mph. That is motoring for a hurricane.

  86. What is up with the Euro? Aside from the Shitty pressure readings, it appears
    to be taking the SOUTHERN route. It almost looks like it wants to head into
    the Gulf. Either the storm is fickle or the model is fickle. Let’s see IF it makes
    the Northward turn. at 72 hours it is hugging the North Coast of the middle of Cuba.

    Nope, it takes the sudden turn and slams into Southern Florida at 934 mb, probably
    a CAT 4.

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/850732/Hurricane-Irma-damage-pictures-Caribbean-photos-storm-floods-photographs

    2. And again …..

      Similar to the GFS, in about 36 to 48 hrs and up to hr 96, the EURO shows a dramatic lowering of pressure in Irma.

      There must be a perfect atmosphere expected from north of central Cuba to where the hurricane turns north. And, the water temp in that area is 85F to 90F.

      1. Indeed, but I remain concerned about the model divergence.
        There is a rather large discrepancy here.

        One hurricane model is closer to the Euro solution while the
        other is closer to the GFS solution.

        From the Fl Keys to Hatteras, they need to prepare.

        2. To be honest, I am so confused as to what to expect.

          Go into Florida and stay inland throughout the state ……

          Not hit Florida, but parallel its coast then head into the Carolinas …..

          Stay east of Florida by 50 to 100 miles, then go north and then northwest into North Carolina ….

          Never make US Landfall …..

          No idea …..

          1. I’m with you and aside from the devastation in its path, I find the whole thing most fascinating.

            I am really curious to see if TK’s feeling about
            it moving even more Eastward is correct.

            My concern is that the euro has been reasonably decent predicting the paths of these tropical entities. A direct hit to South FLorida
            could be a catastrophe in the making.

            1. Understanding the tremendous devastation this is causing, I agree that it is fascinating. Harvey was as well.

              Reading here and seeing the models and now they diverge and the many scenarios has me glued to my computer.

              I know it has been said but I think bears repeating. Thank you all for your links and your discussion

  87. After striking South Florida and passing directly over Miami, Irma emerges
    over the water and travels North and makes another landfall at the GA/SC border.
    Now, that wouldn’t be very good either, except it would be a little less formidable.

    http://imgur.com/a/GUy5i

  88. Models are doing the windshield wiper. Lot of the 12z guidance inching back west. Florida is still very much under the gun. I think the key message is that anywhere within the NHC cone is in play and should be preparing for a major hurricane.

  89. Irma has achieved its best satellite appearance to date as judged by the Dvorak technique. New recon data indicates the central pressure is falling again, from 923mb down to 917mb now. She doesn’t stop…

        1. The final T# is considered the most accurate/official. However, that raw number can give you an idea of trends and/or potential. In other words, if she stayed steady-state from here, the final T would eventually climb to 7.3 as well. In some cases, I’ve seen a storm with all the T numbers around 4.0 (a borderline hurricane), but then an eye clears out, and the raw number will shoot up to a 6+ with the others following. Same sort of thing can happen with weakening storms, in reverse.

  91. Elsewhere, reconnaissance data indicates Tropical Storm Katia, in the Bay of Campeche, has become a hurricane.

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