Monday Forecast

47 Comments

3:31PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)
High pressure dominates the weather in southeastern New England for the next few days, which will be fair and warmer than average. The remains of Irma, in very fragmented form, will pass through the Northeast, at least part of them, Thursday and Friday, and at the same time a cold front will drop down from Canada and cross the region. We’ll have more cloudiness those days but for now I’m only going with the idea of isolated to scattered showers.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 68-75 coast, 76-81 interior. Wind light variable with sea breezes at the shores.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-52 interior valleys, 53-58 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 69-76 coast, 77-83 interior. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-53 interior valleys, 54-59 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 69-76 coast, 77-83 interior. Wind light S but coastal sea breezes.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s coast, middle to upper 70s interior.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
The weekend of September 16-17 should be mainly dry other than a slight risk of a shower mainly September 16. For now forecasting fair and mild to warm weather September 18-20 but will keep an eye on Hurricane Jose off the coast, just in case.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
A pattern of mainly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures is expected.

47 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. TK, thank you and interested in whether you thought Irma’s wind speeds were being “over-reported” at some points.

  7. 12z Euro ensemble mean is pretty weak with Jose but many ensemble members west of the operational track and closer to the coast.

  8. Residents of Tampa are already coming forth to complain about being asked to leave

    I believe it was here and may have been TK that someone predicted those in areas not as hard hit or if Irma didn’t come in as a 5, rather than being grateful they have homes to return to, they would criticize

    Seriously….my new favorite phrase is ….. you cannot fix stupid.

    1. I don’t want to see it up here for a lot of reasons. And yes, it moved east. Granted it’s the 18z, but the operational caught up somewhat with its ensembles this run. Let’s see if the 00z looks similar. EPS look weak.
      I’m inclined to go with ensembles this far out. Probably a whiff, but it’s got possibilities.

  12. A little look back…

    On September 11 1983 Boston hit 99 near the end of their hottest summer on record.

    The temperature at Logan Airport exceeded 95 on 7 days…
    June 22: 97
    July 4: 98
    July 16: 99
    August 8: 96
    August 20: 97
    September 11: 99
    September 20: 97

    There were 4 heatwaves with 90 or greater on 3 or more consecutive days, the longest being July 15 through July 21, with the days running this way…
    July 15: 93
    July 16: 99
    July 17: 91
    July 18: 93
    July 19: 90
    July 20: 93
    July 21: 95

    There were 30 days that reached 90 or higher at Logan Airport…
    June: 5 days
    July: 13 days
    August: 6 days
    September: 6 days

    June 1983 was the 10th hottest on record at Boston with a mean temperature of 70.7.

    July 1983 was the hottest month on record in Boston with a mean temperature of 78.0.

    August 1983 came in a modest 18th place for heat with a mean temperature of 73.6.

    September 1983 was the hottest September on record in Boston with a mean temperature of 70.6, beating the old record of 69.4 from September 1930.

    The June through August mean temperature of 74.1 was the hottest meteorological summer at Boston.

    The July through September mean temperature of 74.1 was the hottest for that 3-month period.

    The 4-month period from June through September was also the hottest on record with a mean temperature of 73.2.

    1. Yep try being in your first trimester and no AC in summer 1983. I didn’t need stats to know it was a LOVELY summer….that said, in truth it was one of best summers I remember. We were told we would only have one child. I’ll tell you the story of the OBs reaction when I arrives for first visit for #3 two years later but I’ve probably said more than you already want to know 😀

      1. It would probably have been pretty much identical had that pattern been now.

        But we’ve never been able to repeat it quite like that.

        1. A good part of the USA was blazing hot in the summer of 1983. The ridge that dominated most of the summer was insane.

    1. You mean except for the 3 that land in NC, the one that tracks over the Cape, the one that hits Maine, and the sixth one headed for RI? Other than that, yes I agree!

      1. Picky picky. Yea yea, the vector doesn’t extend out.
        And the Maine one, yea, that’ll happen when monkeys fly out DITs backside.

        1. All it would take would be a stronger shortwave dropping out of Canada than currently on medium range guidance, timed correctly, and Jose could be pulled as far west as New England as either a minimal hurricane, tropical storm, or most likely a system transitioning from warm to cold core regardless of its strength.

        3. Looks like the link before actually pointed to the 12z GEFS. Now the 18z ensembles do indeed show no members making landfall. I’m sure that will change again at 0z.

  15. 86 mph and minimum central pressure at 982.
    13 mph decrease and he’s a TS

    Too much shear? Might strengthen after the loop de loop on Friday

    1. The storm is spending so much time over the same area, it’s blown away all the warm surface water, which has been replaced with colder water via upwelling, and is resulting in a weakening of the storm.

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