Wednesday Forecast

112 Comments

3:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)
As expected, the fragmented remains of Irma make their approach later today but bring variable amounts of cloudiness and a few opportunities for showers Thursday and Friday. Not looking for any wash-out kind of weather, although some rain is needed as the region has experienced short-term dryness over the last few weeks. By the weekend, weak high pressure will regain control of the weather. The overall pattern has shifted to one of above normal temperatures.
TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 75-80 coast, 80-85 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms. Lows 60-65. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers/thunderstorms. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 60-65. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 interior. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Highs from the middle 70s to lower 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)
The overall idea remains for Jose, as a tropical storm or hurricane, to remain offshore and pass somewhere between the US East Coast and Bermuda, but will continue to monitor. Otherwise, expect mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)
Overall pattern favors mainly dry weather and above normal temperatures.

112 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. This most recent spaghetti plots looks trended west to me compared to the 00z set.

      Both GFS op and EURO op in some way have blocking to the north that prevents Jose from going OTS.

      Has the EURO already figured it out and everything else, as usual, going to follow suit? Or, is it too early and even the EURO will change again …..

  5. Ensemble means are further east than the operational run. The hurricane models are further east than the globals look to me like

  6. FWIW,
    The PNA looks like its going to have a huge spike about sat/sun. To me, this would mean a potential trough and a weaker ridge? That could move things east a little more in coming runs. Who knows, its week out.

  8. For the past couple weeks some trees have taken on a fall-like tinge and now some appear ready to bust out in full color. I suspect an early start to fall foliage…and an early start to winter perhaps?

    1. The trees along the parking lot at Home Depot in Rockland are always the first to change color in this area and they are well on their way.

    2. It’s actually on time, color-wise. The only thing that was “ahead” was the early leaf drop from the combo of fungus and post-drought stress.

    3. I posted on FB yesterday that the burning bushes out this way began changing mid-August. We have some tree color but it is very dull. There is a lot of gypsy moth damage out this way and it seems to be those trees that are changing first. Hard to be sure though as I have trouble driving and looking. I was in Hopkinton yesterday and was amazed at the number of brown leaves on the ground. There were easily enough to rake into piles. I think Ace mentioned this is in his area.

      1. We had virtually no gypsy moths up here so we got lucky.

        We did have a lot of leaf-drop, primarily maple, but that’s also the tree that was inflicted with the fungus, and I believe the trees are getting ready to battle it.

        Post-drought stress still an issue for some trees. They tend to recover at different speeds so we see the result spread out over a couple seasons.

    1. The op run is representative of the more extreme blocking solution, which is not out of the realm of possibility. Jose could get VERY close.

          1. Oh yeah for sure. See, I may have cursed us yesterday by telling Mark to WRITE OFF JOSE.
            There I used Caps. Are you listening?

  12. Ok, I need to be outa here Wednesday morning. I have one science meeting i go to this year, and now its a question of a freakin hurricane up here. If i cant get out Wednesday, i may as well not go. Its only Thursday and Friday.
    So the question is, should i change the airline ticket and go out tuesday? Yes i know its week away but the longer i wait the more expensive it gets to change it.

    1. Keep your schedule. If that thing meanders westward enough to get here (which is still not likely), it will be after you are out.

      1/2 gut feeling & 1/2 scientific guess – September 24/25, closest approach or (less likely) arrival.

  13. Pardon the split personality between WHW and Topkatt88 the last few days. It’s not that I can’t decide. It’s that certain computers can’t. 😛

  14. Now the 12z spaghetti plots are looking more like the EURO.

    Up to latitude of southern NJ, MD or so and then a potential loop.

    1. Interesting.

      Honestly, I am awaiting the 12Z Euro run.
      That will either blow our minds or have Jose pass harmlessly out to sea again.

      One word of caution.

      In the area East of Florida and up the coast quite a ways and most especially over the Gulf Stream, the water remains very warm. No interaction with Irma.
      Nothing to have caused upwelling. It’s a question of how wind shear there
      might be to impede development. It is “possible” Jose becomes a major
      hurricane again. I am not saying at CAT 4 or Cat 5, But is possible it “could” become a minimal CAT 3. I know, more likely a CAT 1 or CAT 2, but just
      saying…

          1. I just have a feeling the intensity may surprise, but then what do I know.

            I had a feeling Harvey would become a 4. It did.
            I had a feeling Irma would become a 5. It did.

            So we shall see.

            I have not looked at the possible shear in this location at this time.

  16. Coming off a new moon during the 9/20 to 9/23 time frame …

    Pretty decent tides, running between 10.3 and 10.9 feet at Boston.

    So, if Jose becomes a factor and there’s surge potential, there’s about 1.5 to 2 ft of room to work with in that time period at high tide. After that, coastal flooding would become an issue.

  17. There are a lot of reasons to continue being skeptical of any model solutions on Jose right now. The atmosphere is in a transitional state on several levels. Can’t even make a first guess at a long term track at this stage. Maybe by tomorrow as it pulls out of its loop.

    2. After it pulls out of the current loop, don’t be surprise if it pulls another anticyclonic loop southwest of Bermuda, not currently shown by any models.

  18. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/thumbnails/natlanti.c.gif

    I’ve often wondered what might happen if a hurricane approached New England from the east or southeast (see NJ and Sandy), instead of due south or south – southwest.

    If we look at the SST, its a shorter distance spent over cooler waters coming in from that direction, as opposed to the other 2.

    Also, I believe the center’s angle approach to the coastline and the resultant surface wind direction would result in a better chance at an increased storm surge.

    I’d think 2 scenarios would have to happen. Either a tremendously anomalous cut off upper low to the southwest of New England, or some kind of perfectly set up blocking to our north or northeast, or a combo of the 2.

    2. The scenario has probably happened, as similar things have been described in accounts written before official records were taken. It’s hard to say, however, if this was a tropical cyclone, a hybrid, one in transition, or a cold-core system. In many ways it wouldn’t really matter. But for reasons of science, I’d say a tropical or transitioning system has and can hook into New England exactly that way and it will happen again.

        2. The house we rent on Humarock every summer ended up in the river (river one side, ocean other). It was of course rebuilt. I have yet to see the movie and think I will this weekend.

            1. I suspect that is one reason I have not watched. I think someone else told me it is sad and I have enough sad without inviting more 🙂

  20. Wouldn’t Jose just be a glorified Nor’easter if it hits? Not trying to down play it just something we are used to.

    1. More than likely because it would probably have already gone through a lot of transition.

      Again much of this is speculation and not highly likely a scenario, only one we cannot yet discount as possible.

  23. would not laugh at any of these models, they been all over the place, Jose will depend greatly on the shear, blocking etc. We just do not know what its going to be at that time,

  24. 12z GFS out to sea with Jose again. It gets hung up by the block and stalls/loops briefly well SE of the bench mark, but then continues NE out to sea.

    1. The 0z GFS last night had Jose riding up the coast as nor’easter, stalling on the NJ coast, and then going backwards down the coast into the mid Atlantic before dying out.

      It’s really honed in on this one (as are all the other models)

  27. Technical issues on the ECMWF’s end affecting the 12z Euro data arrival. Stuck at 48 hours right now. From the rest of the 12z guidance, I don’t really have any changes in thinking on Jose. OTS is more likely, but there’s still enough to keep me interested.

    Meanwhile… enjoy that beautiful late summer weather out there!

      1. Pressure does fill pretty quick towards the end, perhaps due to slow movement over cool waters and maybe dry air entrainment from New England.

        However, going from 965 to 983 while passing south easternmost New England isn’t too shabby.

        1. I think SNE and especially Southern sections could
          see some pretty good winds. But this run does not
          make it a forgone conclusion.

          BUT the trend is there. Now we see what the next
          run looks like. 😀

  30. Comes close to SNE on 12z EURO at 983 mb low then gets knocked away down to the south before turning into Maryland.

  31. TWC just showed two graphs. One of the Euro vs. NHC vs. GFS performance 1-5 days out with Irma. GFS of course was poor. The second graph was showing the performance of the GFS 1-4 days out since the upgrade compared to last year. Just like TK said, performance has been much worse since the upgrade. TK, any chance of backing out the upgrade?

  33. I don’t mind “above normal temperatures” as long as they go away by Thanksgiving and do not return until at least June!

  35. Reading on-line …. A very serious situation in Florida … Still so many without power really struggling with the heat and humidity. Checking dewpoints tonight and they are running in the 70s. Daytime highs near or slightly over 90F

      1. Just horrible.

        I hope not, but I worry there’ll be more heat related issues down there the next few days.

        It’s the nights, they are just too humid and warm and thus people don’t get a chance to cool off.

    1. Here in Hingham too…not much but surprised the heck out of me. Radar and lightning maps just show a little something south and west of our area. In fact it seems to have picked up a little bit in the last 5 minutes in those areas.

  37. Just had a mini thunderstorm here in Sharon. Very heavy but brief downpourvand about 3 flashes on lightning followed by big claps of thunder

      1. Yeah a friend of mine who lives in Foxboro just texted me and said had really loud thunder there, but no rain or wind even though echoes were showing up on radar.

  39. Same in Taunton…0.00 still in the rain gauge, but ground wet. Didn’t think it was thunder until I saw damp ground and cars.

  41. Well, the good news I think, is that the Euro and the spaghetti plots currently look in pretty good agreement

    It’s a fairly close approach though. And the EURO’s pressure projections have dropped.

    1. Look at the 6Z GFS as well. Pressures way down,

      Euro brings 4 inches of rain to Eastern MA.

      This is way too close for comfort.

  43. This morning the GFS, Euro, spaghetti plots, ensemble means and NHC plot have it about 350 miles east of the outer banks on Tuesday morning. After that, it’s a close shave for sure. But pretty good agreement for positioning 5 days out.

  44. Working backwards from hr 168 on the EURO on the 500 mb chart, it looks like a disturbance over southeast Hudson Bay, causing a slight jet stream buckle just north of New England is what helps to nudge Jose just to our south and east on current projections.

    Working backwards, I think the disturbance originates from the Gulf of Alaska, rounds the western ridge and then slowly but surely traverses across Canada.

  45. There are reasons TK and I haven’t been willing to write off Jose. Last night’s guidance shows why. If it gets as far west before turning northward as the latest GFS/Euro show, it’s going to be very close. I still think the near miss is more likely, but plenty close to keep an eye on.

    Jose won’t be moving as fast as most of our “classic” hurricanes in New England. That would mean we’d more likely be dealing with a somewhat hybrid storm, and if it moves slow enough it should weaken a good deal on approach. So I don’t have a lot of concern for a major impact event right now, but another small shift west and a very windy rainstorm is a possibility.

    1. Still not writing it off either.

      I know what the odds favor, but since when does that make a forecast easy? 😉

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