Saturday Forecast

44 Comments

10:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)
We’re in a little bit of a weather “no-man’s land” today as the final remains of Irma depart and a washed-out old front sits over the region, while weak high pressure, and I mean very weak high pressure, tries to build in. The result has been lots of low clouds and areas of fog forming overnight and persisting much of the morning, though there have been breaks in the clouds in some areas. These breaks will gain more control during midday and afternoon but this process will likely repeat again tonight and tomorrow, and to some extent even Monday. The main attention is now on Hurricane Jose, which will be tracking northward toward New England by early in the week. A hurricane coming toward New England during hurricane season is nothing unusual. So instead of reacting only on that statement, read on. The chance of a direct impact on New England, though not zero, is pretty low. Most reliable indications show this system will be weakening, transitioning from tropical to non-tropical, and making a turn to the right before its center can reach the region. But this does not mean zero impact either. A system taking this track during transition will still be close enough for definite rough surf impact (starting as early as Monday), and probable rain/wind impact, though the “worst” of it would likely occur over Cape Cod and the Islands. Still, however, a few days from the event we still have uncertainty and will watch for any changes. The forecast below will give as much detail as I’m comfortable with for now, and of course going forward it will be updated in more detail.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with areas of fog into midday, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 74-79 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-66. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with areas of fog early, then partly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 74-79 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-66. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain and possible thunderstorms especially afternoon and night. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Gusty wind possible especially at night and favoring southeastern areas especially Cape Cod and the Islands.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and possible thunderstorms Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Gusty wind possible especially early and favoring southeastern areas especially Cape Cod and the Islands.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)
Much of this period should feature dry weather and above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)
The overall pattern doesn’t change much but we may again need to eye the tropics for potential impact from a system early in the period.

44 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  6. One thing I notice on the GFS with regard to the more offshore track ….

    Looking at the wind field and precip maps, perhaps the system stays closer to the warmer Gulf Stream and doesn’t transition towards extra tropical as quick and keeps the windfield from expanding out as much.

  7. 0z GFS holds it more SE than the last run. And good observation Tom, the wind field is not as for out from the center.
    Be interesting what the euro looks like. Anymore southwest and even the cape will have just a windy day on Wednesday.

  8. Recon plane in Jose.

    Extrapolated pressure : 978 mb

    Northwest quadrant flight winds : 65 knots.

    Southeast quadrant winds should be on next update in 10 minutes

  10. 67-68 knots in the SE quadrant.

    It’s lowest pressure location and lowest winds in the center don’t line up.

    A sign of shear, I’m guessing ????

  11. If this were a snow storm Dave would be *%#^^^%% facakta thing won’t give us 6 inches 🙂
    Be interesting what the 12z Euro says.
    My guess its it’s east too, maybe more than the GFS.

  12. We’re seeing the eastward shift in modeling I mentioned as being on the way yesterday afternoon. Not a huge change so far, but enough to not only keep most of Jose’s wind offshore, but most of his rain as well.

  13. TK, you make me laugh. I don’t know if you have any Dutch blood in you, but your response to North’s – “Thanks TK. Quite active tropics and not looking good for the islands that were just devastated by Irma.” – is spoken like a Dutchman: “Not great. But in some cases there is nothing left to destroy, and/or nobody there.”

    1. Well, ’tis the case. It’s already done. That said, I think they avoid the worst of the upcoming system.

  14. The ongoing reconnaissance mission in Jose is finding that it is an unusually structured hurricane. Tom, there is definitely still plenty of shear over it, and I think the observations you made reflect that.

    Pressure of 978mb is actually not bad. Lower than the 982mb the NHC had been estimating. The wind field is very broad to the east. That big band east of the center is loaded with 50-60kt surface winds. Max winds near the center around 65kts/75mph, but we’ll see if they find anything higher in the NE quadrant, which is often the strongest.

  15. 12z Euro no major changes, but slight west adjustment to 24 hrs ago when comparing current 96 hr frame to yesterday’s 12z (120 hr frame)

    Let’s see what today’s 120 hr frame has

  16. No higher winds in the NE quadrant on Jose, however, the data does indicate that the central pressure is falling a little, so it may be on a strengthening trend.

  17. 12Z Euro still wants to give Eastern SNE around 2 inches of rain, but 1/2 of that
    comes in a little preview of rain ahead of Jose. Not enough to qualify as a true PRE, but it is there. Take a peek at this and see what you think…

    https://imgur.com/a/4m3H0

  18. Thank you. Played golf on Cape Ann this am under quiet gray cover. Sun could not break through over coastal marshes

  20. EURO. Jose comes up the coast then moves east in a loopy loop as its blocked by high pressure, Jose is trapped by the high pressure and pushes 15 south and east of it, remnants of Jose is pushed west while 15 spins out over the atlantic.

  21. The ECMWF’s “dumbellicane” will not be there on the 00z run. The model is over-strengthening Jose and turning it way too far right and probably also over-forecast the ridge to its east.

  24. I heard on Ch. 7 that “Maria” is expected to go after Florida…in the same areas that got nailed by Irma. Here we go AGAIN???

    I have no relatives there but still…say it ain’t so.

    I wish the tropics would stop. Next weekend autumn begins!

    1. Very irresponsible of ch 7 (although not surprised) to say that this far out. Maria is coming in more south or Irma’s track and I have a feeling she gets gobbled up by Hispaniola before she even reaches the US mainland

      1. I guess they had to move on to something else since Jose turned out to be the tropical version of a Troll.

  25. After moving out of the house back in early May last year, going to the Hilton hotel, at Middlesex turnpike, then going to Nantucket for research, all the while listening to my mother and father, say its taking longer and longer and longer ( i was hoping to avoid the moving back in part did not work out 🙁 then coming back finding out that the house is still not freaking fixed because these contractors messed a bunch of stuff up, finally starting to move things back into the house yet that wall is still not painted….. at least the water now runs….. NEVER EVER USE SKILLVILLE GENERAL CONTRACTORS!! something that should have taken a month, took 3 and a half.

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