Sunday Forecast

108 Comments

2:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)
This particular update does not offer too much different from the last one as the overall outlook is the same and not a whole lot more detail is known regarding upcoming events, namely the passage of Jose. Still looking for an early-week approach and turn to the right of a transitioning system, which spares a direct hit but involves part of the region in the enveloped of wind and some rain, again favoring southeastern locations. And don’t forget about the coastal flooding and splash-over threat at high tide times Tuesday and Wednesday.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with areas of fog early, then partly sunny. Highs 68-73 coast, 74-79 interior. Wind light variable with light sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-66. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain and possible thunderstorms especially afternoon and night. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Gusty wind possible especially at night and favoring southeastern areas especially Cape Cod and the Islands.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain and possible thunderstorms, favoring the morning. Lows from the lower to middle 60s. Highs from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Gusty wind possible especially early and favoring southeastern areas especially Cape Cod and the Islands.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs in the 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)
Expecting a fairly dry and warm pattern at least through the middle of the period. May have to once again watch for a tropical system to be at least nearby later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27-OCTOBER 1)
With a continued active tropical pattern this may be an issue again for a portion of this period but otherwise the pattern supports a lack of rain and above normal temperatures.

108 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  1. TK thank you for the update. I think Jose will take a sharp turn east and I like the idea of getting some rain without the destruction. Not sure if we still have small pockets of drought in MA…?

  3. Thanks as always TK.

    Barry mentioned a track that would take Jose towards Cape Cod then stall then a loop then track southwest towards the Mid-Atlantic. He has the rain from Tuesday through early Friday.

    If that forecast verifies, it would be wind/rain for 3 1/2 days…UGH!!! 🙁

        1. Yes, I notice that. Thanks for sharing.

          Since the vast majority of the models steer Jose OTS, I am somewhat surprised that Barry would go with the outliers back towards the coast. That doesn’t seem like him.

              1. 🙂 🙂 🙂

                Me too.

                Euro led the way on the turn SE of New England then the spaghetti plots caught up.

                9am the spaghetti plots update, let’s see if they come further northwest again.

  6. Euro making me nervous.

    Irma’s more westerly landfall in the keys, Joaquin’s track OTS, its brilliance on Sandy.

    I almost want to ignore every other model and spaghetti plot.

    1. I actually had brought it up if Irma’s westerly track was a trend for Jose and any other future systems but TK as usual said that there is no correlation. A non-met like myself would think that way, but TK uses actual science the correct way to go of course. 😉

  7. Forecasting for the North Atlantic right now is incredibly challenging. The Euro/UKMET have me intrigued as well. That’s usually a hard combination to go against. Even in their scenarios, it’s not a heavy impact for SNE. Couple inches of rain, some 40-50kt wind gusts. But whereas yesterday a graze/miss was starting to look highly likely, this morning it looks like the possibility of a more direct impact is at least still on the table.

  9. A reconnaissance plane is investigating Jose this morning, and is finding, again, an interesting structure. Minimum central pressure of 970mb is down a little bit. In addition, some surface wind values were close to 100mph, but they didn’t match up with the flight level winds very well. Also some evidence that the storm remains at least a little bit tilted vertically due to shear. I’ll be interested in seeing what the NHC does for a current intensity at the next advisory. I’d guess it’ll come up a little.

    1. Barry mentioned that the same islands to be hit yet again and PR could get clobbered this time. I believe they only got a glancing blow last time from Irma.

  12. Good morning.

    Another day closer to Jose and another look from the models, most especially
    the Euro with an attaboy to the NAMS.

    Euro drops anywhere from 2-5 inches across all of Eastern SNE, with 1-2 inches across
    ALL of MA.

    NAM is in the 4-5 inch range across Eastern MA.

    Here is the UKMET WxWatcher mentioned

    http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_096_0000.gif

    and the NAM

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017091706/namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52.png

  14. Barry hinted that Boston and along the coast would have low clouds for most of, if not all day but I see some blue already.

  15. Good morning and Happy Sunday, everyone!
    Hope everyone is well!

    Question: On the 12z run of the ECMWF on the 192-and 206 panels, storms Jose and Maria seem to “dance” and trade places. Is this known as the “Fujiwara Effect”?

    With so much tropical activity in the Atlantic, will this complicate forecasting these storms? Do we know enough about multiple storms interacting with one another?

    Enjoy the day! Hope y’all have a chance to relax some.
    Think the Pats are in for a tough game versus the Saints.

    Nonetheless, Go Pats! So Sox!

    1. Makes sense to me. Then you are ready for whatever winter brings if Jose doesn’t affect you. I did my battery, etc thing last week. I got glow sticks for the kids and for overnight….hoping we might need them but knowing if we do not that Halloween is not far in the future.

      1. Thanks Vicki. Probably will top the gas off in the cars and secure the outdoor furniture. From camping, we are stocked with flashlights and batteries, lol !!!

        00z Euro and UK Met and now the 12z NAM …. Looking forward to the 12z EURO.

        1. It will be interesting if any evacuations will be needed…on a much smaller scale compared to Texas and Florida of course. I would think south coastal as opposed to east coastal areas.

  17. If I read things correctly, things start to go down hill later Tuesday night into Wednesday.
    NHC update of track and cone of uncertainty is due out any minute.

    1. It’s out.

      They understandably don’t make sudden shifts in track.

      We’ll see what the 12z GFS and Euro have to say, then perhaps more track adjustments at 5pm advisory.

      2. Yes, it is although life is running at 120 mph…
        Like you, classes and kids are good so far. Can’t believe we are more than halfway through September all ready. Principal already talking about progress report grades!!!

        Let’s hope we get through the next couple of weeks with no emergency weather days off!

  20. If the NAM 3km keeps up, it’ll go up the Hudson Valley on the next run. 😉

    Ok so there is a reason I will NOT rule anything out. My concern all along is the computer forecasts of the strength of ridging. This time we don’t have a pattern where the jet stream is waiting to pick up a TS or hurricane whether it be a hit or miss and whisk it away toward Iceland. We have a blocked up pattern with high pressure to the north of the system. That opens up a range of possibilities.

    Remind yourself that we are trying to forecast the movement and interaction of circulating fluid in circulating fluid with the aid of a set of programmed simulations and what we know from past experience.

      1. Thanks…
        Do multiple tropical cyclones in play and interacting with each other make forecasting them more challenging?

  22. I feel like the models today, and the 12z GFS is doing it, have a NNW or NW motion to Jose once it gets past Cape Hatteras’ latitude until about the central NJ shore. And during that motion, the longitude location of Jose moves about 50 miles west.

    1. Yes …… Perhaps a 20 to 40 mile shift NW from the 00z GFS.

      It does seem to expand the windfield now on the northwest side, bringing 50-60 mph gusts over the cape and onto the shoreline of the south shore.

  24. It seems the 13z runs want a cape cod or we ma hit. Now not looking off shore.

    Waiting on that euro. Perhaps 1/2 time.

  26. Thanks, TK.

    Will José and Maria dance the Fujiwara? That’s the question. We think they’re good at flamenco, but it’s the Fujiwara gyrations, twists, and turns we’re really interested in.

  29. The windfield is definitely projected to expand on the GFS as Jose passes east-northeast of Cape Cod. And the movement of Jose is very, very slow, thus there are large 50 to 60 mph wind gust contours sitting over areas just east of Massachusetts bay for a few days. I wonder if there’s growing potential for a multi foot storm surge on northeast facing areas of east coast Mass the middle of next week ?????

    1. I checked around different harbor and beach tide information for this week and the tides are the highest for the month this Wednesday because of the new moon.
      That is concerning.

  30. Hard to believe that early this morning had fog so thick a steak knife couldn’t cut through it. Bright sun, blue skies and just a few line clouds…absolutely beautiful day! 🙂

    Barry had most of us stuck in fog for the entire day. Curious as to what happened…or didn’t? 😉

  31. Tom, your area in particular may get socked by this week’s series of events. I’m more concerned than I was yesterday. The blocking pattern and that fact that nothing appears to prevent the storm(s) from a more westward jog. High pressure may settle in from the west by Friday or Saturday, but before that I think we may be in for some serious rain and wind. We shall see.

  32. Airlines not yet giving a no change fee waiver for Logan. I have a Tuesday morning flight at 10 am. Hoping to still get out.
    Winds don’t look that bad until late Tuesday I don’t think.

  33. Impressive train of tropical systems this season. One would think this was really unusual. But wasn’t this scenario the same in the 50’s and 60’s? Also, we have better technology for tracking and getting information out nowadays. And perhaps there were fewer people living and building close to the ocean then. (not to say there were still many casualties then) In any case, it’s scary. My opinion is Jose has a mind of his own. As most hurricanes. One other thing – for many months it seemed to be windy a lot (I even mentioned it) but now it’s so calm. Perhaps this is why there are many tropical systems? Not much movement in the atmosphere so these storms have a greater chance of developing? Hope my questions are clear enough.

  34. Middle schoolers have obviously changed considerably since back in my day. They were anything BUT hard working and respectful. Not applied to me, but the list of detentions were quite lengthy and would usually take a good 2-3 minutes to announce over the loud speaker in each room. This was back in the early 1970s, btw.

    Kids these days. 😉

    1. Ha…I recall that detention list. I had detention once. I struggled with math and had worked hard at 9th grade geometry. I got an A and when the teacher handed me the test, I let out a YAY. She gave me detention. The next year I was fortunate enough to have a math teacher who was phenomenal. During my senior year, the only subject I put my full effort into was math because of him.

      1. Geometry was my worst (math) subject. I may have gotten a B once. Best I could get was a C for a final grade.

        Ridiculous that your teacher gave you detention for a YAY after a good test mark! 🙁 🙁

          1. Oddly, and probably not surprising to anyone here, I took it as a challenge. I ended up loving geometry.,,..not so much the teacher 🙂

  35. An example of uncertainty and forecasting…

    Do you recall several days ago when my guess of a potential impact of Jose was around September 24? The thought process that went into that was an earlier occurrence of what the models are now showing, so we’d have missed the initial pass. In other words, the anticyclonic loop would have been wider and further south.

    This is now what we are seeing the models try to do, but only further north, so the storm is close enough for an initial glancing blow before the possible loop.

    Long way to go yet on this one, folks…

  36. Blackstone, I do think you’ll be able to get out on Tuesday morning. Right now, late Tuesday night through Wednesday look somewhat problematic in terms of wind and rain.

    1. I think so too. I was originally supposed to go out Wednesday at 10 am, it I changed it a coupe days ago. Plus the aircraft I’m on comes in on Monday night, so it will be there Tuesday morning. I would think they would want to turn that around out of Logan if thy can.
      Yes, in a worrier 🙂

  37. Given current model track and timing forecasts, we may see tropical storm watches start to go up for some places later today or tonight. I agree with TK, in that there are a lot of possibilities still out there.

    The 12z NAM (not the tropically useless 3km one) is probably a reasonable worst case scenario for SNE, in which Jose maintains enough forward speed to hold onto a good deal of intensity before it gets in here. Would still be weakening/decaying on approach, but the less time it spends over cold waters to our south, the stronger it would be.

    1. I should say, the regular NAM isn’t very good with the tropics either, but the 12z run is at least a possible scenario, just one of many possibilities.

  39. I have a wedding Friday afternoon in Harwichport. Hoping things are ok, but it looks like anything could happen at this point.

  42. I think tropical storm watches have been posted for areas of southern New England, but can’t see specifics while on the road 🙂

  46. Ok, what’s going on with Jose? 24hrs ago he was dead to rights well SE of the BM with little to no effects. Now TS watches and 4+ inches of rain with TS force winds across SE MA?

    1. Ironically, it’s not Jose per se. It’s the other features the models are struggling with that affect where he can and can’t go.

  49. Very quiet here this afternoon and night with a hurricane lurking off our shores. Thought we would have a little more discussion going on. Good night for now.

  50. I know the NAM is not a good model when it comes to tropical systems but it has Jose further west and stalling off of Long Island. Is this possible? Could Nam be picking up on something as Jose is most likely transitioning to more of a hybrid storm?

    1. 0z NAM:
      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2017091800&fh=57&xpos=0&ypos=232

      As you said, it comes north and stalls just south of the eastern end of LI. By the time it starts drifting east, it has weakened considerably. LI, CT, and RI actually get the worst of Jose on that run as far as rain and wind, but some decent rain bands impact pretty much all of SNE with 6″+ in part of eastern CT and RI.

      I know the NAM isn’t great with tropical systems but we are less than 48 hours away when the NAM is normally pretty decent. I would not discount that solution.

    2. That will not happen. The NAM is basically broken with regards to this system. The entire run should be ignored.

  52. Becoming increasing concerned about Maria. The NHC is now predicting that Maria will become a dangerous CAT 4 with 140mph sustained winds as it tracks directly over Puerto Rico. Yet another US State/Territory that looks to be crushed by a hurricane this season. Official NHC track:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?cone#contents

    Maria Spaghetti plots:
    https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_15

    Also concerning as it looks to eventually threaten the east coast and potentially SNE. The Euro had Maria off the mid Atlantic coast and heading towards us near the end of its 12z run.

  54. Maria may well be a cat 2 based on what the recon plane is finding.

    With Jose, at least on the west side, the strongest winds are well away from the center.

Comments are closed.