Tuesday Forecast

156 Comments

2:48PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)
Jose is now essentially half tropical and half non-tropical as it spins to the south of New England, moving north then turning east and beginning somewhat of a loop as it eventually turns back south and then probably west again during this 5-day period. Its impact on southeastern New England will be similar to that of a typical “nor’easter” type storm with gusty winds, some rain, and some coastal flooding and splashover issues, which may be of moderate magnitude. Some trees may come down since they are still with foliage and more “top-heavy” than in the winter. So due to that, power outages may occur. The peak of the impact on this area will be Wednesday, with a lessening after. High pressure will build in for the very end of the period with nicer weather. All the while, powerful hurricane Maria which is devastating a few islands in the Caribbean will continue to track northeast and eventually find its way east of the Bahamas – a precarious position for concerns in New England many times, but it is very possible that Jose’s continued habit of doing loops may essentially save the US East Coast, including New England of any impact from Maria save for some additional rough surf beyond the end of this period. More on this in the days ahead, because a faster westward movement by Jose would open the door for Maria to end up closer to the coast as it gets further north.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers, a few possibly heavy. Temperatures holding in the 60s. Wind NE 15-25 MPH coast, 10-20 MPH inland, higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Episodic showers/rain/drizzle, some heavy rain possible. Temperatures holding in the 60s. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH interior, 25-35 MPH coast, gusts as high as 30-40 MPH interior, 40-55 MPH coast with strongest southeastern MA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers lingering eastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts, but diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers Cape Cod early. Highs 65-73. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)
Low confidence forecast due to some uncertainty with Jose’s movement and the eventual path of Maria (see above). For now will go with return of clouds Sunday September 24 into Monday September 25 with some rain risk southern areas, then a clearing trend following. Temperatures generally above normal.

DAYS 11-5 (SEPTEMBER 29-OCTOBER 3)
Overall pattern looks mainly dry and mild to warm.

156 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Tom says:
    September 19, 2017 at 2:51 PM

    Uh oh ….

    If Jose hangs on too much AND loops back too far south and west of us, it’s going to sling shot Maria right up the coast (see hr 192). Thankfully at hr 216, the jet stream ridge is collapsing.
    Reply

  2. Thanks TK!

    TK – Once Maria leaves the Bahamas and heads toward the U.S. will she still be in her destructive phase in terms of category?

      2. Holy Crap Batman. I presume those plumes are dust from
        building collapses or partial collapses and not fires, although an
        earthquake of that magnitude certainly could cause many fires.

    4. It’s not that uncommon to have 2 to 4 moderate to major earthquakes fairly close together, time-wise.

  11. Tweet from Ryan Hanrahan on the earthquake.
    The @USGS PAGER estimating 100-1000 fatalities and $100M-1B in damage from Mexico’s 7.1 quake today.

  13. For those who have marched in nesba Paul cain has passed, he was the voice we were met with when we entered the field for competiton

      2. 153 knots max flight level wind. Both sides of the eyewall are equally strong.

        I wonder if people have fled to the western and southwestern side of Puerto Rico ?

  24. Despite its already high intensity to begin with earlier today, Maria has been intensifying at an explosive rate this afternoon. Pressure now down to 910mb. She is the deepest storm of the year. Winds around 170-175mph based on recon data.

    1. That’s 10 mb in the last handful of hours.

      To lose 10 mb off of, say a 980 mb system is one thing, but to do that off of a 920 mb storm is staggering.

  25. Believe it or not, TWC has Paul Goodloe in San Juan, PR.

    Yes, there is reporting the story, but I wonder if this upper limit is pushing it ?

  27. A dropsonde from the reconnaissance plane measured surface winds of 168kts/193mph. That’s an instantaneous value, not a sustained wind, but it shows that gusts of at least that strength exist in the storm.

  31. With the two significant earthquakes in Mexico and two monster storms that have devastated and are devastating parts of the Caribbean it’s been a bad couple of weeks for that part of the world. The wind speeds being recorded in Maria’s eyewall are mind-boggling. When we get 50mph gusts in Boston they can be damaging. Try increasing that more than threefold, I find it unimaginable.

  32. 906mb extrapolated… Dropsondes have been running similar to the extrapolated values this flight. She just may crack 900, although I don’t know if we’ll still have a plane out there measuring. This mission will probably be over soon.

  34. St. Croix forecast from the NWS page:

    Tonight hurricane conditions. Northeast winds 55 to 65 mph with gusts to around 90 mph becoming east and increasing to 120 to 130 mph with gusts to around 185 mph after midnight.

    Wow! 185 mph gusts!

    2. TWC just went live on Skype with a storm chaser in St Croix. Video was choppy. Things deteriorating there rapidly.

  35. Recon mission is over. It ended on a bit of a cliffhanger, however. We saw those 906mb extrapolated pressures, but the dropsonde on that pass measured 911mb, up one millibar from the prior pass. Didn’t seem to be any issues with the dropsonde, no high surface winds which would indicate they missed the center. From what I’m hearing there’s another mission scheduled shortly which may be in the storm around 10:30. So we’ll see what she looks like then and whether she can break 900. Either way… a beast.

  37. Reports of deaths from the Island of Dominica and 70% of the homes on the island had their roofs torn off and homes flooded . The Prime Minister of the island lost the roof on his own home and had to be rescued. He said the devastation on the island was “mind boggling”. Maria had max sustained winds of 160mph at the time it crossed the island. Even stronger now as it approaches St Croix and Puerto Rico.

      1. I have to admit that up until now I never even heard of Dominica. A very sad way to get noticed…a destructive hurricane.

    2. Abundant poor construction on an island that had not suffered a direct hit from a hurricane that strong in a long time. It’s no wonder the devastation is that widespread.

      1. However, even the homes (Kenny Chesney’s is a perfect example) that were constructed to the highest hurricane code standard were leveled. I think it true that poor construction will not survive, but in the case of these………neither will the best construction money can buy. Just horrific.

  38. I am truly sick thinking about what is about to happen in Puerto Rico. Catastrophic damage in the eyewall which may very well hit the San Juan metro area. Authorities are telling people to stay out of high rises as the winds 20 floors up are a full category higher than what is experienced on the ground. Gusts to 200 mph possible that high up and in the mountainous terrain.

    Many dont realize that there are 3.5 million people that live on that island. 1 million of them were without power after Irma hit which was just a glancing blow. And 75,000 have still not had power restored yet. The island has a very aging infrastructure.

    And then you have the mudslide and flooding threat with 1-2 feet of rain predicted over mountainous terrain and a nasty storm surge on the north shore to the left of the eye, which could include part of metro San Juan.

    I’m not even sure where I would go to evacuate and feel safe.

    1. There is a point where it is all far too hard to even absorb. It is nearly impossible to not feel a horrible empty feeling with all of the devastation surrounding us.

    2. I actually think they may get lucky (relatively). Eyewall replacement cycle timed just perfectly that the cyclone expands, weakens slightly, then just before the new eyewall would tighten and intensify it, it travels over land and weakens a little more.

      It’s limited consolation, but it’s something.

  40. Only saving grace of this storm is the center of the worst winds is small, unlike Irma, with hurricane force winds still extending only 35 miles from the eye. Eye itself is 10 miles wide. Of course, with the island only being 40 x 110 miles and the storm approaching in a WNW trajectory, it is going to put pretty much all of PR in hurricane force winds. But my guess is only a 20-30 mile swath or so of devastation where the eyewall passes.

  41. TWC was saying that the hurricane hunters air base is in St Croix and it has been evacuated. All of the recon flights into the storm are coming in and out of Curacao (near Aruba) in the southern Caribbean.

    1. If Jose retrogrades enough to the southwest of New England, it ironically could help steer Maria right up the coast. Hopefully in the 7 to 10 time period, the big eastern ridge will break down and the jet stream will come to the rescue if the above scenario plays out.

  44. Maria now 10th strongest hurricane in Atlantic basin recorded history. New recon plane about halfway there from Curacao….

  45. I may have to join those wondering about the NHC ….

    Jose looks at its best in 2 to 3 days, with convection surrounding the center, excellent outflow and disappearing dry air on the water vapor loop and it gets downgraded to tropical storm status.

    Hmmmmmm …….

    1. From what I can tell, it may look decent on satellite but all the wind measurements show that it’s not a hurricane anymore, and his somewhere between tropical and non-tropical. The expanding wind field is a clear indication of this now. It did try to regain some tropical characteristics over the Gulf Stream but now it’s heading over cooler water.

  46. And at 11PM, they have elected to make no changes to Maria – still 909mb and 175mph. I assume they are awaiting the results of the recon plane measurements which are in progress.

    Just checked obs from St Croix as well – wind now gusting to 85mph. And gusting to 70mph as far north as St Thomas.

    1. Last two obs. from St Croix now say NA for wind. Anemometer may have failed. It does look like they are getting into the outer eyewall.

  47. Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits · 1m1 minute ago
    11:20pm: Recon pass into #Maria finds the pressure likely hasn’t risen. Awaiting dropsonde confirmation. Winds still Cat 5 strength easily.

  48. Recon plane finding pressure slightly down to 908mb and the wind field of the storm has now expanded with two wind maximums – one in the inner and one in the outer eye wall. As a result, the max wind speed may have reduced closer to 160 mph but little consolation as the strongest winds now extend farther away from the storm center.

  50. It’s neat how warm the airmass is over New England.

    Come away from the rain in SE New England and it’s been nearly 70F all night, even in Concord, NH and Portland, ME.

  51. A little editorial after reading the blog but being so busy with my new job that I clearly haven’t been posting much

    Never want to hear people complain about the weather in NE after what has transpired around the globe in the past 4 months. We are so fortunate that we live in this part of the world. Usually the worst we have to deal with is some snow and you know what happens with snow ❄️, it melts . And before people bitch and moan about how cold or hot it is think how fortunate we truly are to live in this part of the World.

    3. I think you know me well enough, my friend, to know it goes without saying that I absolutely agree with you. But sadly, it needs saying. Thank you and we miss you!!!

  52. San Juan, PR radar is obviously down. The eye is now only 15 miles SW of San Juan putting the metro area in the most dangerous NE quadrant of the storm for winds. Saving grace is that this track is sparing the City a huge storm surge.

  53. San Juan airport reporting station has also been down since 5AM. At last report, winds were gusting to 70mph out of the north.

  55. My friend in Sutton whose photo I shared the other day has a sister in Puerto Rico. I shared the link to WHW with her since many of you, especially Mark, seem to have the ability to find links to what is happening in the hardest hit areas before the media. It occurred to me that not only are the folks on this blog helpful with pre-storm information, but they are equally helpful in keeping others informed during and after an event. As always, thank you all for the expertise and time you share.

  56. re: San Juan Radar

    I saw that it had a message “Down for maintenance”.
    I don’t think it has been knocked out per se, but more likely they shut it down
    and secured it once conditions started to really deteriorate.

    1. eyewall replacement? or TK said it is a rougher terrain? Both horrifically uneducated guesses but it is certainly missing.

      1. Eye replacement was just about complete when Maria came
        on shore. I’d say the rugged terrain punched her in the face.
        We’ll see what happens when she emerges over water again.

        1. She came ashore a little ways off her peak due to an eyewall replacement. However, the more dramatic weakening seen this morning is a result of terrain. Will take at least a day or two to recover if it does at all, as upper level conditions become less favorable with time.

  58. Outer bands of Jose are more offshore than I thought they would be during his closest pass today. Barely making it to the Cape and Islands. Shame, we could have used the rain.

    1. Wow – I checked its wunder station along the Duxbury coast as well as Humarock’s and Brant Rock’s. All three had current wind gusts on either side of 30 mph. The rain totals ranged from .50 – .75

    2. I don’t think so because while the motion on the radar gives an appearance it might, I think the entire system would have to move northwest, so that the entire rain area moved northwest.

      Eventually, that rain area, in the rotation around Jose will start sinking southwest, then south, etc.

      Perhaps it could get to the canal bridges or Plymouth.

  65. Wasn’t Jose’s winds down to 65 earlier today? See they are back up to 70. And flight level winds in excess of 70 knots. Hanging in there quite well.

  66. Jose has pretty much been a yawn event for me. NWS and (ahem) Barry, were forecasting over an inch of rain up to Boston with 40-60mph wind gusts as recently as yesterday when it was clear Jose would pass well too far south and east for those impacts

    1. I hear what you are saying, especially for those inland.

      Here near the water, its fairly windy now along with some occasional showers.

      I still think this thing is somewhat tropical and hasn’t fully become extratropical, so I just want to see the next 24 hrs while its still strong and somewhere in the vicinity that the winds don’t expand out from the center and get a bit stronger.

      Also, interested to see its future track and what role it may or may not have in influencing Maria’s future track.

      1. Agree Tom. There are lots of twigs and leaves on the roads here in Plymouth. Pales in comparison to what it could have been but definitely not a non-event down this way.

  68. Looks like Maria was impacted quite a bit with the interaction with Puerto Rico. Down to 115 with a 961 pressure.

  69. An update along with photos and videos of the damage in Puerto Rico in this article:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-maria/hurricane-maria-blasts-puerto-rico-kills-at-least-nine-in-caribbean-idUSKCN1BT1RW?feedType=RSS&virtualBrandChannel=11563

    Unfortunately at least 9 people are dead on Dominica and Guadeloupe. The entire island of Dominica is without power or running water and 70% of the homes had their roofs blown off.

    On St Croix, a wind gust of 137 mph was reported and 65-70% of the buildings there were damaged.

  70. So, what will happen at hr 192 on today’s EURO ?

    If the dip in the northern plains moves eastward, we’re probably good.

    If it digs southward, well ………..

  74. Some nice wind gusts here in Middleborough. Just strong enough to keep my students distracted from my afternoon lessons.
    Prayers to all in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Dominica, Guadeloupe and Mexico.
    My goodness…what a rough couple of weeks…

  76. 12z Euro has Maria at 969mb off the coast of Virginia at 192 hours, then rockets her northeast to near Halifax, NS at 979mb 24 hours later. There would be SNE impacts with it passing us near the benchmark.

    1. Wow. I heard part of an interview on NPR a bit ago with an individual from San Juan. She said that many people were already prepared as much as possible for Maria because they had prepared for Irma. One small village she thought had lost about 80% of its homes. She thought other areas had done better but there is little communication.

  79. Hi all!

    Jose: Has been a tropical storm for about 24 hours, but..mainly extratropical. Yes it tried to reorganized over the Gulf Stream, but there is no on/off switch with these. It’s a process to move between warm and cold core. Remains to be seen what happens next. Weak steering. I think it loops back, sits just to the south, then tries to drift up and in while weakening.

    Maria: Has caused its worst damage already. No surprise it got knocked way down by the land of PR. It will reorganize a bit over water but not to a monster. Minimal impact on the D.R. and eastern Bahamas and then probably between the US East Coast and Bermuda and may tuck itself under New England sometime next week as a weakening and transitioning system. Remains to be seen if steering is present enough to pick it up or it mills about. Either may occur.

    Updating now…

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