Wednesday Forecast

103 Comments

4:08PM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)
Jose was downgraded to a tropical storm but has continued to be a hybrid system for a while and will now lose tropical characteristics further as it does a loop east then south then west over the next several days. Its impact is greatest on southeastern New England now and tonight, with a lessening impact thereafter. Still expecting wind and high tides to be the main issues, as outline on the previous blog. This includes some downed trees and power lines and coastal flooding especially near and during high tides through early Friday. As far as Maria goes, it hit Puerto Rico very hard this morning, but the center moving over the island caused it to weaken considerably, though it still remains fairly strong. The center will be back over water and the storm may re-intensify, but not likely to the level it was prior. It’s expected to turn north and get into a position off the US Southeast Coast by late in the period when we will be watching it.

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Overcast. Episodic showers/rain/drizzle, steadiest and heaviest rain over southeastern MA. Temperatures holding in the 60s. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH interior, 25-35 MPH coast, gusts as high as 30-40 MPH interior, 40-55 MPH coast with strongest southeastern MA.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers lingering eastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH interior, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts, but diminishing overnight.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers Cape Cod early. Highs 65-73. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 50s to lower 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain South Coast. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)
Low confidence forecast due to some uncertainty with Jose’s movement and the eventual path of Maria (see above). Going to lean to lots of clouds to start the period and some periods of rain more with the still-lingering remains of Jose, then by mid period possible some wind/rain with Maria’s closest pass, then some calmer weather to follow.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30-OCTOBER 4)
Overall pattern looks mainly dry and mild to warm.

103 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  4. 0.31 inch so far today at my house to go along with 0.11 inch yesterday
    for a Jose total of 0.42 inch to now. We shall see how much more comes
    along. 😀

  7. I saw a post on the previous blog that parts of Middleboro are without power, assumingly due to conditions from Jose. This goes to show how fragile our utility infrastructure really is, that 30mph winds with occasional higher gusts can cause power outages. Seeing all the damage from Harvey and Irma in the Caribbean, you would like to think that in such a developed and wealthy country as ours we would fair better than that, especially living in one of the wealthiest parts of the country in the Northeast. In reality, we wouldn’t fair any better and we would be crippled just like anywhere else.

    1. True. We have many power lines running among and often times through
      trees. A tree goes down and poof, there is a power outage. IF a large enough
      tree limb goes down that could do it as well. Get a bunch of them across a wide areas and power could be out for weeks, yes even here as you very well stated.

      1. I was living in Millis when Hurricane Donna struck in 1960.

        We certainly lost power as trees and limbs were down all over the place, and we were inland well away from the coast, so the
        winds were not nearly what they were on the coast.

        I believe I was starting the 8th grade and school was closed
        for a whole week. I can’t remember if we were without power for a week as well. Easily could have. It was a mess. I remember sitting out on our front porch watching the wind howl. Strongest wind I have ever experienced in my life and it paled in comparison to what those poor people in the Caribbean experienced.

        I really feel for them.

    2. Wires are wires and pokes are poles. Doesn’t matter if it’s on a third world island or in Massachusetts. Cat 5 hurricane will tend to tear up most anything.

    3. Utilities have cut costs in the name of profit. I know this for fact. They used to trim trees and replace double poles. They also used to test their equipment on a far mor regular basis. It is corporate America at its finest

      2. Power rates and transmission rates are higher than they’ve ever been. The deregulation of power costs have resulted in competition for the actual generation costs. But, companies that own the lines increased “transmission fees” through the roof. I only pay 8 cents for the power itself. National Grid gets another 14 cents on top of that. You’d think they would plow some of that money back into infrastructure.
        On the other side of the coin, New England’s old. New housing addditions here mostly have underground power. Ours is. But putting power underground in old area such as most of Boston, would be really expensive. Not to mention that if they tried, I’m sure some turtle or beetle would be in the way and a 5-10 year impact study would need to be done.

        1. See my comment below. While much of what you say is accurate, You are missing the big picture. Electric equipment, including transformers, can last decades and perform exceptionally well……ONLY IF they are properly maintained. That is where monies have been cut.

          For what it is worth, we often has the over under debate at work and the engineers tended to be divided. And they are the ones who are still consulted, now worldwide, whenit comes to problem equipment

          1. I’m missing nothing.
            Of course you’ll disagree with anything I say. You and I are like oil and water

              1. so wait….if you make a comment to a person, that person Cannot respond? I replied to JPD and Philip. NOT YOU. YOU were the one who replied to me. There was absolutely nothing offensive in my comments. You, on the other hand…not so much. Although this is not political….or was not intended to be by me….Thatcher has a quote I enjoy

                I always cheer up immensely if an attack is particularly wounding because I think, well, if they attack one personally, it means they have not a single political argument left.

  9. Not sure about this but I believe even in areas that have underground electric power it still receives power from overhead wires. In my neighborhood and most in Boston have underground cables but if a car crashes into a pole several blocks away…POOF!

    1. Substations go and it doesn’t matter whether your wires are above or below. You are correct. A tree won’t take down the wires but during the Halloween storm, it was arcing we all heard and areas with wires above and below lost power.

      1. Like I said above, it doesn’t make much difference what you do sometimes. Mother Nature was here before humans and we are reminded of that once in awhile.

        1. Mac and I both worked for a company that has 99% of the electric utilities in this country as clients. The company provided test equipment and testing services that were considered state of the art and which is what kept the equipment operational. It is why I said my comment is fact. Test records are extensive. There was yearly maintenance, then every few years, now much further in between And they span decades. It may not matter in a cat 5 but losing power in minimal winds…..it absolutely does matter.

  11. As the drizzle and showers retreat, the temps are climbing this evening.

    Logan at day’s warmest : 71F and with a north wind, a dewpoint of 67F in New England in the last third of September.

  12. Time for me to bough out i
    of here again for awhile. I’m afraid I’ll post something that our host wouldn’t like and get me thrown off. On the other hand, I think half or more of the readers here would like to see it

    Adios for awhile folks.

    1. 3 to 4 over a period of a week or so. Fitting right into the pattern.

      I remember as a child that pattern was one of the first things I noticed about nature. Part of the reason was I had a fear of earthquakes.

  20. With the power lines, i think both have their issues. Above ground wind can make them come crashinf down. Possible issue underground are roots getting to close to them water etc. Underground can loose power just as easily. Not sure if anything can restand a cat5 above or below. Even if you havethem under ground someone down the street does not and can mess with the whole system

  21. When I lived in Europe I learned that underground cabling and power had distinct advantages. The power in Holland never went out. Not even when we had frequent hurricane-force gusts (those autumn and winter gales I talk about). Also, some of the advantages were aesthetic (who likes the sight of telephone poles and electric wires). My Dutch geography teacher in high school told me something I’ll never forget. “We in Europe have certain advantages in infrastructure over the U.S. because of repeated wars on our continent; wars which did not physically impact your country. Almost every European town was affected by war in some way or another. Many were destroyed, along with most bridges and roads. So, in the aftermath of the most destructive war of all time, most European countries modernized all infrastructure, including electricity and telephone lines, and moved it underground, and they did some of this with American money (Marshall Plan).” Paradoxically, not having wars come to our land has meant that we’ve kept things more or less the same for many decades. Except for the Civil War we’ve never really had to start anew.

    2. Good comment, Joshua. My father in law, who as you know worked outside of the United States for his adult life, often commented that Europe was far ahead of this country in some areas for the reason you named as well as a few others. You are also correct about there being less chance of outage for underground wires. There is also a higher maintenance cost which was the argument engineers used to give against.

      The point I was trying to make and may not have made well enough is that lines are only a part of the problem. Maintenance is another. If the equipment is not maintained, it will have a shorter and less stable life. I do not recall power outages when I was young and we all know that I would if we’d had them 🙂 But Belmont had its own power company and maintenance on the overall U.S. power grid was at far closer intervals than it is today. For instance, Boston had several power outages from the same transformer a few years ago. That specific transformer was older but should have still had a long life ahead. However, it had gone far longer than recommended for preventative testing.

      I did a quick look into Netherlands and power companies. It seems its power companies are obligated by law to perform preventative maintenance. Something I believe is necessary her but would never pass. I came across the linked article below with regard to a fairly massive power failure and the cause was due to TenneT’s failure to comply with preventative testing. I also sent an email to a friend at the company where Mac and I worked because my interest is now peaked thanks to your comment. I am interested to find out if their European clients are more diligent with regard to testing.

      1. of course they sre. Our power vompsny, specifically cuts back on maintenance to mert share hokder demands for higher profits. i’s always about profits. screw everything else. i used to eofk in the private sector. i witnessed our presideny lie to a customer. a big fat bold face lie. sick. call me jaded, but therr is sonething wrong with the way most, not all, corporstions are run.

        1. I believe I read somewhere while there would probably be less outages with buried cable it would cost a lot more to dig them up and repair them. I could be wrong but I do remember someone saying the same thing with buried fiber optic lines (from the time when I worked in telecom).

          1. That is absolutely correct, Keith. The sad part is that even with above ground in the past, because of proper maintenance, the outages were not as widespread as they are now. Aside from regular equipment maintenance, If you drive through Framingham and Natick, you can see some of the lack of attention just by counting the double poles which are supposed to be replaced in a specific amount of time. Where there are poles in the more affluent, most are not double….go figure. JPD is correct….It is all in the name of the bottom line. And I’ll repeat that above ground lines are not foolproof. Both Joshuas and Blackstone’s comments are correct in that respect.

            You notice I am not complaining 🙂 🙂 🙂

  22. Quite a breezy morning down here, probably best wind of the event.

    Cant believe how mild to warm these recent nights have been. I’d think suburbia should be averaging down to near 50F or so by the last third of September.

  24. Power is flickering in my building and also have a couple of branches in the area without power. Quite a bit of small limbs down as I drove to work.

  25. The wind was definitely cranking this morning. My outdoor workout this morning was as much about avoiding branches, acorns, and pine cones flying out of the trees as it was about working out. Getting the door to the office open this morning was an adventure as well since it opens right into the wind.

  27. Our school has a varsity boys soccer game at home this afternoon. We never postpone unless it’s monsoonal rains or lightning. It will be interesting to see where the ball goes today when kicked!

    1. HAHAHA!! We are hoping to get back out on the practice field today for football. We have a lot of catching up to do before the games this weekend.

  29. Its nice to see some drier air, as being shown in lower dewpoints, being entrained into Jose’s circulation. Our school is fairly stuffy in the hallways from the 65F + dewpoints the last few days.

    I wonder if this opens up some opportunity for sun this afternoon. The only possible con of that is mixing up the boundary layer further near the coast and increasing the chance of slightly increasing the wind gusts.

      1. I thought it was going to make an appearance in Sutton a bit ago also, JPD. Although, it seems brighter, it ducked back behind the clouds.

  32. It would appear this morning that Maria does not pose a direct threat to the East Coast. That’s certainly the direction I’m leaning towards. May in fact end up quite a bit closer to Bermuda. I’m not completely writing it off quite yet, however, due to lingering questions about how Jose’s track and decay evolve.

  33. Irma’s cold wake is limiting Maria today, as evidenced by warmer cloud tops than would normally be expected for a storm in that area. Its eye is large, but ragged. Increasing wind shear will also likely serve to gradually weaken it further in the next few days as forecast by the NHC. As TK said yesterday, she’s done the worst of her damage.

  36. I also read this summer about the Hurricane of 1938 that the Boston Bees had a home baseball doubleheader that day, September 21, 1938. The Boston Braves changed their name to the Bees from 1936-41. The organization changed its name thinking it might change the team’s fortunes from a losing team to a winning one. It didn’t.

    The Braves/Bees played at Braves Field (Now Nickerson Field at BU). There was an afternoon doubleheader between the Bees and the St. Louis Cardinals on September 21, 1938. The Bees dropped the first game to the Cards, 4-0. By the time nightcap began, the winds were howling at the field.
    According to legend, the umpire, “Beans” Reardon (who was born in Taunton) declared that the game would continue until the outfield fences and advertising signs started to blow down.
    They did, and then the game was called!

    2. I am really hoping I can find the show on TV. I remember my mom’s stories and it would make it even more personal for me to see.

    1. I am left with WERS (Most of the time as they have alternative programming
      at certain times)
      WZLX is OK, and I really don’t care for WAAF all that much, but now I will
      have to change my WBRU button preset to WAAF.

        1. WROR – the old WROR ?? I have not heard that station mentioned in ages. I’ll have to check it out.

          In the meantime….use pandora, JPD 🙂

          1. The River 92.5 is good. WBRU sold to Klove back over a month ago…what a waste of a frequency 🙁
            Dave if you want to stream it a great station is WCLZ 98.9 http://989wclz.com/ ..from Portland Maine
            With my antennas I get it about 90% of the time

    1. We are up into the mid to high teens but I feel as if this wind normal for here. And I suspect we are too far removed to really be affected.

      1. It’s gradient wind between Jose’s expanded wind field and high pressure moving down from eastern Canada.

            1. Agree. It is still in mid teens but that’s why I said I thought it was just typical for this area. We seem to have a lot of wind here on a regular basis. I do have a couple of deck chairs and one on the patio that are blown over but, again, that is not out of the norm.

  41. No power at my house. According to National Grid there are about 2300 in my area that are affected by the outage.

  42. Just had a wind gust to 41 mph.
    Just about to head out to the soccer match.
    I will keep you updated on how many goals we score
    and how many goals the winds scores.

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