Saturday Forecast

50 Comments

1:14PM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)
In comes the October warmth and humidity as a warm front passes today, and then hangs on Sunday as a cold front makes a failed attempt as coming through the region, falling apart against high pressure building offshore. A south to southwesterly flow then paves the way for the remains of Hurricane Nate (making landfall this weekend near the MS/AL coast on the Gulf of Mexico) to bring some significant rain to the region Monday, probably in two or three pulses which may also include some thunderstorm activity. This exits Tuesday but the humidity hangs on until another cold front passes by and brings in drier air for the middle of next week.
THIS AFTERNOON: Sun/cloud mix. More humid. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight risk of passing showers and thunderstorms but most areas see nothing and those that see rain will have it briefly. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight. Chance of rain before dawn. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, with some downpours likely. Humid. Highs 67-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers early. Lowering humidity. Lows in the 60s. Highs in the 70s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)
High pressure should be in general control with above normal temperatures overall, but a front from the north and a new high pressure area in Canada may cool it down slightly at the end of the period. Also have to watch this pattern because at times if the high pressure area is centered too far to the north we end up in a more marine flow and cloudiness can be more prevalent at times, and any disturbances to the south can get closer and threaten the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)
1 or 2 shots of very cool air are possible during this period as the pattern enters a transitional phase. Will keep an eye on it and elaborate further.

50 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Headed down to Sarasota tomorrow dew points down there 77°-80 Nate has really dragged up deep tropical moisture.

  4. I am starting to think that Above normal temperatures will be the norm through December with weak, short lived periods of cool temperatures in between

  5. Tidal gauges along the Gulf coast, from east of New Orleans over to Biloxi, MS are showing a current surge of 2.3 to 2.5 feet

  8. I just had what I consider a very rare and special treat. We had a bald eagle circling our house.

    With all of the years I spent skiing and fishing in NH and Maine, I never saw one. I did see one at a distance a year or so ago over the Cambridge reservoir in Lincoln. But this was a great treat for me

    2. The Bald Eagle is one of most positive Environmental preservation achievements, we will have to wait and see if we can not pull the same achievement with pollinators before its to late. Its a work in process but some are making it hard. PS there is a huge difference between Preservation and Conservation just that to the general population conservation is more worth it as it includes a human component.

  9. Vicki, a bald eagle sighting is a treat. I think your area – fairly close to the Quabbin – is a place you’ll spot eagles more than the immediate Boston area.

    Longshot, are you in España, or what may soon be known as Catalonia? Enjoy no matter where you are.

    TK, thanks for the forecast. It’s dry again, we need whatever rain we can get.

    1. We’ll probably get a healthy dose Monday, then go dry again for a while.

      Been doing some looking way ahead…

      Seeing warm signal through mid October, cold signal late October-November. Dry signal after Nate for a bit, then wet signal.

      Winter wildcards: La Nina / QBO / AMO / PDO / NAO / Solar Cycle / MJO (kind of). Got the first in the ballpark, iffy on #2, solid on #3 through 5, and clueless on #6.

      I think drought comes back in 2018.

  10. JJ, I’m also a supporter of Joe Girardi. But, as you pointed out he had a less than stellar game yesterday. In fact, his decisions cost the Yankees the game. The Chisenhall hit-by-pitch is a no-brainer. You challenge that. Do not understand why he didn’t. I would also question his not using Chapman to face Bruce in the bottom of the eighth. I know Chapman has had his struggles this year. But, Robertson was running out of gas. He’s been overused. Fastball wasn’t there, and left-handed Bruce took it the other way for a game-tying homerun.

  11. Nate getting close to landfall this evening. It’s nothing the Gulf Coast can’t handle. Cat 1. Biggest inhibitor for that storm has been its breakneck forward speed. Fastest motion on record for a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. It has already produced its worst impacts, which were catastrophic floods in parts of Central America during its early development.

    Current indications are the bulk of the remnant moisture stays north of SNE. That will be refined tomorrow…

  12. Joshua Joe Girardi came out today and said I screwed up. I totally agree with you Girardi should have challenged that play where Chisenhall was hit by pitch where replay did show enough evidence he was not hit. I would also add I think he should have left CC in through the 6th inning. After the first two innings CC settled down and you had a tired bullpen from trying to win that wild card game since Severino was ineffective.
    Listening to sports talk today Girardi taking a lot of heat for that decision not to challenge and that was his worst moment as Yankees manager and this will be talked about all winter should they go on to lose the series.

  13. Regarding the Red Sox postseason woes the past two seasons: MLB playoff format much to blame but not excusing the team’s poor play by ANY means!

    Will explain in more detail tomorrow after the 2nd consecutive playoff sweep! 😉

    I agree with you JPD…Farrell has to GO!!! (for starters)

  14. TK – As for your Winter wildcards I am totally clueless on all of the above. Can you explain a bit deeper w/o getting too technical? Thanks. 🙂

    Personally, I think a teeny bit more snow than last winter. Just a gut feeling only.

    1. I’m heading out now so I’ll explain a bit more tomorrow.

      As for snow, if the pattern that I see in November continues a bit longer we can get hammered very early, but that doesn’t necessarily mean big snow for the entire winter.

      It’s very early but my first analog lead to a winter that had below normal snow. I’m not huge on analogs though. I apply them with caution.

  15. You very well may see John Farrell fired as manager if a sweep happens for the second straight year.

    1. Could happen, and I wouldn’t miss him. But, these two playoff debacles are not his fault. The starters didn’t show up at all. It’s unbelievable how poorly the starters have fared.

      Philip, I think you may call into question the best of 5 format. If so, I agree. Hockey and basketball have best of 7 series throughout all rounds of the playoffs. Baseball should, too, with the exception of the wildcard game. Shorten the regular season by at least 10 games, but expand the 1st round of the playoffs by 2 games.

      1. True, the playoff starters didn’t show up.
        And true, the manager doesn’t pitch and doesn’t hit.
        However, the manager has great influence over the attitude of the players. Who’s to say whether or not said attitude affects the performance of the players.

        Regardless, I want that miserable useless manager gone!

  16. Snow anomalies forecast to be below normal across Eastern Siberia…. shall see how the october snow forms in siberia.

  18. Dewpoints running 73 to 78F on the east side of Nate.

    Heading our way tomorrow, air should be incredibly soupy.

    1. I have windows wide open and wind is whipping through the house. I suspect windows will be closed shortly. Sun keeps trying to pop through. Clouds are racing by.

        1. Nice Tom. Does it smell like ocean or is it coming from wrong direction?

          Some mist here so I eventually came in

          1. Yes, wrong direction where I live. But, I’ll bet that up in parts of green harbor and Brant rock, there’s the scent of the ocean.

  20. Definitely a couple of anomalous days on tap due to the tropical influence. Windy here in Wrentham this morning (home for the long weekend). First batch of rain moving through. Briefly drying out later today before more rain/downpours tomorrow. Still looks like the heaviest rain is over central New England. Could still get quite interesting tomorrow afternoon. Winds at 850mb get up to 50kts or a bit more in places. Any stronger cells could bring that down with localized wind damage, along with an urban flash flooding risk.

    1. I’m a bit wary of that low level jet tomorrow, especially sitting in the incredibly tropical airmass. Seems like good mixing of the column potential.

      1. Though it’s not in my discussion today, I’m going to be putting out tomorrow’s forecast late tonight and I share some of those concerns myself.

      2. I am as well. Just looking at the new NAM, it’s gone even a bit stronger on the LLJ tomorrow. Maybe up to 60kts in the afternoon at 850mb. Column is saturated, but there’s not really a temperature inversion to keep those winds fully elevated. They won’t mix to the surface on their own given the cloudiness, but any decent downpour will bring most of it down.

  22. Through October 7th, the 4 southern New England climate reporting stations are all between +5.5 to +5.8F above average.

    1. Finally got into that really warm pattern, after summer was over. Oh well! MJO and a couple other factors dictated the pattern strongly.

    1. Glorious afternoon ahead. You’ll be able to re-open them and smell summer and autumn together. 🙂

  24. New post! I didn’t really change anything beyond day 5. The Monday forecast will be out before I go to bed tonight.

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