Monday Forecast

101 Comments

7:07AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)
The remains of Hurricane Nate will track across the Northeast today and tonight, bringing tropical humidity and some significant rain. There’s enough energy in the atmosphere to support a few thunderstorms, some of which may produce brief flooding and possible wind damage. Not looking for this to be a widespread issue, but it is possible so be aware just in case. There should be two main thrusts of moisture coming through the region, one in the morning and another from late afternoon through early evening. By early Tuesday it will move away but the day will remain warm and somewhat humid. By Wednesday, cooler/drier air will have arrived from Canada and will linger into Thursday, but during this time a disturbance from the southwest will make run at the region but will be running into building upper level high pressure which may dry most of it out. This ridge should continue to build through Friday as well.
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog early. Occasional showers and possible thunderstorms including some heavy rain and possible strong wind gusts. Humid. Highs 68-75. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms early then ending southwest to northeast. Clearing overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Gradually lowering humidity. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs from the upper 50s to middle 60s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows from the middle 40s to lower 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)
A ridge of high pressure dominates early in the period with fair and mild to warm weather. A front may slip through from north to south with a cooling trend sometime during the October 15-17 period before a warm-up again at the end of the period. No significant storminess expected.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)
Transitional pattern between dominating high pressure and passing troughs in a jet stream a little closer to or over the region would result in a few opportunities for showers and a more up and down temperature regime.

101 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Thanks Tk for posting that . Sure is a shame that this PROFESSIONAL MET doesn’t post here anymore . Shame indeed . Very muggy in the city .

      2. No one said he should stop posting, we just did not like how he responded to people on the blog. There is a reason why the blog has become more civil.

    1. Chance. Not a great chance, but a chance.

      Better chance of starting it than finishing it on time.

    1. I’m showing a dew Point of 69 here in JP.

      YUCK!!

      0.01 inch with those huge downpours this morning. 😀

    1. That is truly awesome, but we all know that is NOT a water spout, but rather
      a full-fledged tornado over water.

  10. Had a good time hiking the Franconia Ridge loop with my son Saturday but sure enough the ridge line was socked in with blowing clouds and tropical storm force winds. He loved it though and the waterfalls on the way up were nice. By the time we got to mt Lafayette where we started descending from the ridge, it started raining and we got drenched. Thankfully it was not all the cold, the showers passed, and we had a change of clothes on us. All in all a good day but he wants to go back when there are some views.

      1. That’s great, Mark. Thanks for sharing your White Mountain experience. Did you see any evidence of the wildfire they’re trying to contain? It’s near Lost River Gorge.

        1. I didn’t see much of anything 🙂

          Actually the visibility wasn’t all that bad driving up 93 in the am but no, I didn’t really see anything. If there was smoke, it was blended in with the clouds.

      2. Your post just makes me smile. What a perfect adventure for you and your son. A memory you will both cherish I am certain!

  13. Looking at current radar trends, They should just postpone the Sox Game.
    They way it looks, I don’t even think they can start it, let alone complete it.

    At the very least there will be rain delays. Not a good day to even attempt to play.

    1. They just said it’s a go . I think it should have been postponed with the rain coming in . It’s been on & off here in the Fenway area.

  14. So what happened to Sale coming back on 4 days rest?
    Is it because it is a 1PM game instead of a 7Pm game? Yeah, like that would make
    all of the difference in the World.

    That being said, I suppose the Sox really don’t have much choice as they weren’t
    likely to get a great performance out of Sale anyway.

    Damned if you do and damned if you don’t.

    I guess I am OK with this decision. At least Porcello is well rested.

    Let’s Hope he has a really good game should they play.

  15. I have a question–actually, my husband has a question. He was watching Eric Fisher this morning, and he said something about the rain being in New Jersey and that it would be here in a few hours. Now, if we drove to New Jersey and were able to drive 60-70 mph, it would take us about 4 hours. Granted, we can’t drive as the crow flies, but it is a pretty straight shot. So, if the storm is moving at say 25 mph, how can it get up here so quickly?

    1. Great question. In this case, I believe it has to do with the LLJ or lower level jet which can transport precipitation and warm temperatures northward at speeds far greater than 25 miles per hour in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Hence, the tropical air mass we have experienced ahead of Nate.

  19. Well, I think it has happened.

    I cannot think of anything positive to say about this weather other than we need the rain. But when it is not raining……I got nada.

    I can think of tons positive to say about the day, however 🙂

  20. To come away with nada with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 2nd….THAT is our red sox season in a nutshell 😡

      1. At least the manager removed himself from the equation. Now we have a better chance. What a way to go out as his last game as Red Sox manager

            1. They should have canceled both today’s and yesterday’s then because everyone had them FINAL before they even started. 🙂

              I think they should just let the fans decide in advance who is going to win and not play any games. Save lots of transportation and hotel costs.

                1. But it’s not really happening. The game was done before it started so none of this is real. 😛

                  I’ll tell you one thing that is for sure, there is no such thing as a 3 hour baseball game anymore.

  21. I think it would have been funny if MLB canceled the game, not due to rain, but due to the amount of negative tweets and posts on social media. 😛

    Oh and yes I’m aware yesterday I said they were done, but that was just reverse psychology and it worked, obviously. 😉

    1. Seems we had a discussion about fair weather fans recently. Perhaps, I am not remembering correctly 🙂

  22. I have always liked Stowe VT for the Old New England ski village feel. It is already changing since vail has bought it. Some of my favorite places to go have closed and been replaced with more ” high end” crap. People were saying the price was going to go down from what it was……. yeah right, look at the day pass. in my opinion go to hell vail.

    in other news, I am taking part in some GS races this year. One in Sunapee possibly and then one or two in Stratton. Will probably do some of those Nastar races at wachusett as well (which I have been doing for the past few years).

    1. I proposed to my wife there 4 years ago and even then it was starting to become a “resort.” Didn’t have that Olde NE ski village feel at all IMO

    2. Mac’s uncle built a ski camp in Morrisville many decades ago. It is on about 22 acres and set on the top of a lovely hill. Mac and I spent some wonderful times there. Our kids did also. His uncle’s daughter owns it now. We can use it any time we want but it has been too difficult for us to think about returning. Reading your comments, I think it is best for us to remember it as it was.

    3. Matt, please let me know when you are at Sunapee. I’ll send you my brother’s name on FB and also will see if he is going to be there when you are. I’d love to have him meet you and vice versa!

  23. Mercifully, the 2017 Red Sox season is about to come to end. They got lucky and caught Houston on a very rare bad day yesterday. That was not going to happen again.

  24. Man, this Red Sox team, that won the AL East and 93 games, sucks SO bad they just keep fighting back against a really great team.

    How can a team that sucks THIS badly keep hanging in there? 🙂

    1. Yay! They “officially suck” now. Fire the team!

      Now I don’t want any of you folks watching next year. You abandoned them. 🙂 I’m going to be monitoring your TV usage, so be careful… 😛

      1. Had they won today, Farrell’s job would probably be safe for another year even if they had lost the final game in the series. As it is now, Farrell may have at least one foot in the grave among ex-managers.

      2. You won’t have to monitor my TV usage on the Red Sox TK since I don’t have cable and I only watch on Fox 25 if I don’t have to work…or absolutely nothing better to do. 😉

        As long as the Yankees lose tonight, I’ll be ok. 😀

  25. Am I correct this moisture is from Nate? Is the moisture down south in GA etc also from him?

    We are having some serious gusts out here. The temporary insanity before is replaced with I love this 🙂

  26. I’m actually feeling a little underwhelmed by the wind this afternoon. I think the LLJ ended up a little less impressive than modeled, and we haven’t been able to mix much of it down. Breezy, but I was expecting more gusts 40+ mph. Instead only a few reports of hitting 40.

    More underwhelming is the rain. It’s very telling when you get a full fledged tropical air mass like this with the remnants of a hurricane moving through, and you can’t even squeeze out half an inch of rain. Not even any real downpours and certainly no thunder, which is helping keep the winds at bay. No getting around it now: This is a dry pattern, and we’re slipping further into drought. The next system trying to bring us some rain literally evaporates on contact with New England late Wednesday.

  28. Feeling a bit melancholic. Partly the weather, partly the Red Sox’ predictable demise. Even though fall is my favorite time of year, every October when the baseball season ends I feel somewhat forlorn. I’m in the minority now as someone who loves the regularity and constancy of the admittedly long baseball season. Interminable games at times, yes. Yet, I absolutely love the sport, and have been a diehard Red Sox fan since I first played wiffleball with my older brothers in the summer of 1969. I idolized Yaz, Reggie Smith, and Rico Petrocelli. To me, trips to Fenway felt like entering Disneyland. I even liked hearing John Kiley, the organist. Throughout the 70s I went to many games, often arriving 2 hours before game-time to watch batting and fielding practice, and invariably staying until the last pitch. The only other sport I have a similar connection to is hockey. Two totally different sports. But, after my first trip to the old Boston Garden in March of 1971, I was hooked. And, I had a great team to follow. Not only that, John Kiley played the organ at the old Boston Garden.

    Enough ruminating. I know, I’m an old fart.

  29. Be curious to see what moves are made during the offseason for the Red Sox considering another early exit in the postseason.

    1. Your team is still in it. Looks like there may be a deciding Game 5 in Cleveland. I don’t like the Yankees but consider them a very exciting team to watch.

      As far as Sox moves, Farrell’s dismissal may be the easiest decision, but with the least impact. I don’t believe another manager can solve the problem of early post-season exits. The player personnel isn’t good enough. And that includes the pitching staff from top to bottom, with a few exceptions like Sale, Price, and Kimbrel (though he blew today’s game, in my opinion). The free agent market is thin this year and loaded next. Trades can only get you so far, because you have to give up multiple talents (say, Benintendi, Bradley, Bogaerts, and a top prospect) to get talent (say, Stanton). And, once you have Stanton you can’t easily fill up the positions of players you dealt with players from the street. The Sox are in a pickle: They’re good enough to be competitive but not good enough to win championships. In a small market like Minnesota, they’d be fine staying put. But, the Boston market has much greater expectations.

      1. They need a more powerful lineup offensively, a “murderer’s row” so to speak. Right now there isn’t any real fear for opposing pitchers.

        Could Big Papi be convinced to come out of retirement? 😀

      2. If they could package say a JBJ and Boegarts (and another top prospect or two) for Stanton. and Then go out and sign JD Martinez from Arizona (he’s an FA at the end of the year). Stanton could play right and Martinez DH. I think we could get Stanton for a reasonable package (not giving up Benentendi, Betts or Devers) if we assume his HUGE contract. That would also mean paying Martinez (who is 30) probably something in the order of 80-100 mil for 4-5 years. They might do one but I don’t know if they could afford both. That would be 2 really big bats in the lineup. Dreaming…but what the hell.

        1. This dream would mean moving Mookie over to CF. Also while Miami would love to keep Stanton I don’t think they can afford that crazy salary…they can thank one of baseball’s worst owners for that deal…Jeffrey Loria (ask Montreal baseball fans about this guy).

  30. Good morning and AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

    Dew Point down to 59 already here in JP. FINALLY!!!!

    AAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

  31. Sox best get something done.

    Tony Maz thinks the Manager is history and that the team packages something
    to obtain Stanton.

    That alone “may” be just enough to get the job done. I think the talent would be good enough IF managed properly and with a decent clubhouse attitude which was clearly missing this year. Any other moves would be gravy.

  33. Certainly looks like we’re well on our way to a top 10 warmest October for our area, more likely top 5 or perhaps number 1. Just a very impressive stretch of warmth which looks to continue for most of the next two weeks at least.

    1. I remember warmth in 2015 into November but do not know how it compares to this stretch. It was also a blah foliage year. On the whole, I don’t think warm Octobers and into November are the exception any more.

      As an aside, TK saw this coming last July……….as well as the increased Atlantic activity and hopefully some December treats to come!

  34. A surge of tropical humidity coming up into New England in early to mid October. Eh …. not a big deal.

    But, what is happening today, to me, is eye opening.

    An October cold front has passed, NW winds at the surface and still dewpoints near or slightly over 60F remain all the way back to NY State. That small drop in humidity is something that should be the summer norm. In October, dp’s should crash into the 30s and 40s. Very unusual.

    2. High pressure stronger offshore and the source region of today’s air wasn’t cold.
      Common for a trough – ridge pattern in autumn.
      The high dewpoint was due to the source region of the airmass Nate was in.

    1. So nice!!! and it is odd that I work from home and never move my equipment outside. I was in a doctor’s office the other day and he had a really neat setup where the computer and the larger screen were on a system that had wheels. I spent a good part of my time wondering if I could afford that system.

  36. Truly a beautiful day today. Doesn’t quite feel or look summery; looks a bit like autumn with some colors coming out on trees and angle of sun. But it doesn’t feel like autumn. Kind of weird. But a pretty weird. 🙂

  39. So, Atlantic City NJ had a high temp of 77 yesterday. “Unheard of! Crazy!”

    They missed the record high by 10 degrees (87 in 1939). *sigh* Media.

Comments are closed.