Sunday Forecast

49 Comments

8:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 15-19)
The feel of summer rules today as we continue in the overall warm-ridge pattern. A cold front will push through the region tonight though, and bring cooler air for the start of the week, but another warm-up will follow this as the overall pattern remains in place. There is likely to be some large temperature variations especially regarding overnight lows across the region, and the spread from those to daytime highs, as is typical for a weather pattern dominated by high pressure.
TODAY: Clouds and areas of fog dominate into mid morning then sun and passing clouds. Humid. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. A band or two of showers from northwest to southeast late at night. Humid. Lows 53-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW late.
MONDAY: Lots of clouds southeastern MA early otherwise sun and passing clouds. Drier. Highs 60-65. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 34-43, coolest interior and rural areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 20-24)
The first few days of the period will likely be dry and warmer than normal as the current pattern continues, then there are indications of a little more unsettled and up/down temperature pattern trying to get underway later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 25-29)
A trend to more up/down temps and unsettled weather may continue but low confidence at this time.

49 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

  5. Thanks TK! A couple things I’m keeping an eye on in the short and medium range…

    *Big frontal passage tonight of course. This is a true autumn cold front, and you’ll notice the difference in a big way tomorrow. Unfortunately, most of the region will be lucky to get a drop of rain out of it.
    *After a brief cool down, another very impressive ridge builds right back in to the East by mid-late week, which keeps us dry and warm for a number of days. This month, at least its opening 25 days or so, I will remember for a long time. Rarely have we seen such anomalous warmth for so long. Shades of the super El Nino months of 2015-2016. Also extremely dry, no chance of rain for another week after tonight’s front.
    *Finally, watching days 11-15. There may be only one thing that can break the heat and possibly keep this month from being even more historically warm. That is a recurving super typhoon in the West Pacific, which appears to be what we will have later this week. That basin has been a sleeping giant most of this season, but it’s coming to life now. If we get this recurving typhoon that the models are forecasting, there will likely be major downstream development implications, with a big ridge building in the West and compensating deep trough in the East which should lead to a much cooler, more unsettled period, and perhaps even the first flakes for some, ~10/25-10/30.

    1. That typhoon is the very reason I wrote “low confidence” in my 11-15 today. Big part of the puzzle there.

  6. AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1) Which location is the foggiest in the US?
    A. Mt Washington, NH
    B. Cape Disappointment, WA
    C. Mistake Island, ME
    D. Point Reyes, CA

    2) The poem titled “Fog” was written by:
    A. Carl Sandburg
    B. Robert Frost
    C. Rudyard Kipling
    D. William Shakespeare

    Answers later today.

    1. And this is why they play the games, even though many fans have the outcomes written before the players ever take the field. 😉

  10. Is suppose since We used heat into April…unprecedented for me…and possible a bit in May, that AC mid October makes sense

    Kids and grands have gone to the Sutton farm days. Girls spent morning making Macs apple crisp pie to submit for the pie bake. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

  11. So glad I’m missing out on the real first fall cold front. People here in Sarasota are complaining about the heat it’s 88°73° DP they are waiting for a cool down. At least when I come back late next week the warm air will be back in NE.

  12. Love that news about your girls apple pies, Vicki! Best fall food there is 🙂

    Pats in another close one. I’m sure people were giving up on them down 14 early. They’re clearly still a work in progress, but they’ve clawed it back to tie at the half.

      1. I thought at first but look at the replay as he hits the corner ball was not in control as wall as the ball looks to hit the ground

        1. I’ll have to disagree. I see absolutely no loss of control and have watched a dozen times in slow motion. It pulls away from his body for a split second but he had control.

          I know if it were the pats, we would be furious. I am never big on winning a game that isn’t a fair game. And I do understand that there are mistakes in calla but this was reviewed upstairs.

  14. Pats continue with the “survive and advance” mentality. Jets obviously got robbed on that TD that was called back. Pats looked great for most of the 2nd and 3rd quarters. Took a lot of guts for the defense to dig in after getting shredded early. 4th quarter remains a puzzling challenge. All in all, once again, they did enough… barely.

    No place to hide next Sunday night though. Under the lights at home in a Super Bowl rematch. That will be a very tough game. If they play as they have most of the season, they’ll be exposed in a big way. But it’s also an opportunity to prove they have what it takes to make another playoff run this year.

    1. I think, as my cousin wisely said, this is the Pats. They do it over and over. What a great example to set for anyone…particularly kids. Never give up.

      I hate seeing Aaron Rodgers injured. Nasty landing on that shoulder

      All of that said…what a lovely day it turned out to be

        1. We’ve lost due to them too. As long as we have humans officiating, there will be bad calls.

          1. Oh, I know that. I’ve always believed you want a win playing against the best. Not a thing anyone can do. Just being me

  15. From Met Erieann:

    STATUS RED

    Wind Warning for Ireland
    Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track directly over Ireland during daytime Monday. Violent and destructive gusts are forecast with all areas at risk and in particular the southwest and south in the morning, and eastern counties in the afternoon. Also heavy rain and storm surges along some coasts will result in flooding.
    There is potential risk to lives.

    Issued:Sunday 15 October 2017 20:00
    Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Monday 16 October 2017 23:59

  17. We did not miss the mark on the weather here in central NH today. A late summer beauty. Upper 70s, and the humidity wasn’t too bad. Nice breeze too.

  18. So post-tropical storm Ophelia will hit Ireland. A big storm? Yes. But they will have 10 to 15 synoptic scale cyclones pass close to or go over them that are more powerful than this will be between now and next April. The only difference between this and those is this one had its origins in the tropics.

  19. Answers to AccuWeather Trivia Quizzes.

    1) Which location is the foggiest in the US?
    A. Mt Washington, NH
    B. Cape Disappointment, WA
    C. Mistake Island, ME
    D. Point Reyes, CA

    The answer is A.

    2) The poem titled “Fog” was written by:
    A. Carl Sandburg
    B. Robert Frost
    C. Rudyard Kipling
    D. William Shakespeare

    The answer is A.

      1. What prize do I get? 😀

        I was fairly certain of the second but totally guessed the first.

        Thanks Longshot!

  20. Thanks, TK. I’ve re-posted your paragraph on Ophelia:

    “So post-tropical storm Ophelia will hit Ireland. A big storm? Yes. But they will have 10 to 15 synoptic scale cyclones pass close to or go over them that are more powerful than this will be between now and next April. The only difference between this and those is this one had its origins in the tropics.”

    You are 100% correct. Ireland, the British Isles, the Low Countries, and Scandinavia will get at least 10 larger storms than Ophelia in the coming 6 months. Ophelia is more compact than those enormous North Atlantic behemoths that generally produce more wind than rain (or other precipitation). Ophelia, on the other hand will produce both lots of rain and wind across a relatively small area. On the heels of Ophelia Ireland will likely see 2 more traversing Atlantic Lows this week. Spoke to my daughter – who lives in Dublin. She says umbrella’s are next to useless when the wind gets in high gear. She loves it there, though. She tells me she’s accustomed to daily bouts of (mostly) light rain and wind. She looks forward to seeing the sun in December when she visits Boston. I know that sounds strange, but it is definitely true.

  21. Totally agree on Ophelia being just a run of the mill store for that region. However, its meteorological and climatological significance is much greater than its impacts. It has completed the extratropical transition process at this point.

  22. As climate change continues to worsen we will see more and more tropical based storms making it further and further north.

  23. There is something that most people do not know. There is a little bit of a falseness that a warm core storm has to be born over water of 80 degrees or higher. This is not necessarily true. Yes there is warmer than average water sitting in the region that Ophelia traveled over after formation, but it was below 80 degrees. Why did the storm retain warm core characteristics? The answer is overhead. The air above was colder than what one would see above an average hurricane. It is the CONTRAST between the water temp and the air temp aloft that helped Ophelia remain tropical for a bit further distance. This has not been taken into account by many outlets just touting Ophelia as some kind of freak event. It is NOT that! A true scientist will look at the entire picture, not just the parts that make a case for a certain point they might be trying to make. That is what media does.

    The headlines out there still saying that Ireland is about to get a hurricane? COMPLETELY bogus. Post tropical storms travel through that area on a routine basis. This one is a strong one, yes, but as I stated above and in numerous other places around the net in an attempt to battle this silliness, they will see many stronger storms in the next several months that were not born of tropical systems, but regular mid latitude synoptic scale weather systems.

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