Friday Forecast

36 Comments

4:36PM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 20-24)
Apologies once again for late update. Hoping to shift to more regular morning posts again soon! Anyway, more fair weather so not like we had much urgent to update, other than maybe increased autumn fire danger due to gusty wind today behind an extremely weak cold front. High pressure will remain in control through Monday, though by then you may notice a slight up-tick in the humidity as the high is off to the east and we’re in a southerly air flow by then. A slow-moving cold front will approach the region Tuesday with limited or no sun, and an increased chance of wet weather, which we need badly as much of the region is now back into moderate drought. Before all that, the weekend will feature weather that is pretty much perfect for the Head Of The Charles Regatta Saturday and Sunday, as well as viewing of Orionid Meteors which peak between midnight and dawn Saturday morning and Sunday morning.
THROUGH SUNSET: Sun sinks into the western sky as expected, then sets before 5PM! Oh the shortening days! Mild and a gusty NW breeze.
OVERNIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-47 interior, 47-52 immediate shore and urban centers. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH but some higher gusts.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.
SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-73 South Coast, 73-78 elsewhere. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)
Current indications are mild and showery then turning cooler October 25 followed by cooler with a chance of rain October 26, then drying out October 27, followed by a fair and milder period October 28-29.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30-NOVEMBER 3)
Still a little uncertain how it plays out in this period but going with somewhat unsettled at times and variable temperatures as a general idea with lots of fine-tuning to do.

36 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. That’s tell-tale of 2 things regarding the large scale pattern…

      1) No hard-core dive into cold for East. It stays further west.

      2) Given ENSO trend, the focus for colder will probably be Upper Midwest to Upper Plains, Rockies, and Northwest with time. Doesn’t make Northeast immune to cold but may be impossible to get anything sustained in terms of below normal temps unless you are somewhere in north central to western US.

      2. I do not believe anyone will be below normal for temperatures this year in the continental US for any sustained time period unless something really breaks the entire pattern. There is some rather cool water off the Pacific coast. which to me is like a kiss of death to west coast ridges SST annomalies https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
        At the moment I believe most if not all of the contential US will see normal to above normal temperatures. Except the midwest into western great lakes where there could be below to near normal temperatures like you pointed to.

        that Pacific jet could keep most of the cold well out of the area unfortunatly, of course just like my senior year of highschool, The last semester of my undergraduate degree lol. I was planning on doing alot of skiing… Hope we are all wrong lol

    2. Its pathetic, I understand we have gotten hit with a bunch of natural disasters within the same period of time, but for these people to be so creedy is absurd. People there wanting to help can’t as they do not have the coordination.

      1. I do have to say, I wish people would look long term and realize that this could happen more and more and we need to be ready for it. Also in terms of infrustructure and this is easier said than done. Why in gods names earth, is the first thing people think is rebuilding the old stuff. Why not take advantage of the situation and go with a more clean sustainable source of energy. There is a reason why St. Thomas has some power on the island and its not due to the electric grid, its due to all those solar powers that were easily fixed and plugged in. But no, they got some company contract from freaking North Dakota.

  7. Eric Fisher
    @ericfisher
    La Nina + warm fall + neutral/negative PDO, etc…all pointing toward warmer than average temps for the season as a whole

    1. DISLIKE

      Not your post Mark, but what Eric Fisher is saying, which is what I have been
      expecting for a while now. BOOO

    2. Funny I was just talking to someone about this (not Eric). 😉

      Still a few more puzzle pieces to go though.

  8. Thanks TK !

    Down on the Cape. Was on west Dennis beach after 4pm yesterday. Was beautiful and mild and lots of people were out and about. Hung there til sunset, at which point it became desert-like with an immediate temp drop. Beach day today planned on a bay side beach. I love this autumn weather. I’ll bet the head of the Charles hasn’t seen too many weekends like this in its history.

    1. I love how every country has their own set of names for storms. Maybe I don’t love it.

      Anyway, they named this one after me I see…

  12. This is one of the more impressive warm months that I can recall up here. No two ways about it, it’s been a highly anomalous temperature regime. Shades of the El Nino warmth of 2015-2016, without the El Nino of course. And I agree with what some others have said; the pattern will try to change next week, and it sort of will, but the cold air will not be centered on New England. It mostly stays to our west. In fact, we’ll likely push our monthly temperature departure even higher into positive territory before this month is out thanks to the coming stretch.

    I’ll have more thoughts on winter before too long… The CPC of course is going with a straight La Nina forecast. But they always go to the generic forecast for whatever the expected ENSO condition is. We all know there will be more to it.

    1. October and into November was much the same two years ago. And the foliage was also not great. Although, I’ve decided Sutton just does not have good leaf peeping trees. Neighboring towns are much prettier.

      I’m not minding this. I sat on the deck for about 30 minutes with coffee and then came inside to sit by the fire.

      1. I do seem to recall that despite it being warmer two years ago we had a bit more rain. Although, I’m not positive

          1. That’s what I thought I recalled. If I read that right 😉

            I recall in November, some were saying that they wished we’d change to cooler weather. I said I would normally agree, but the warm weather meant Mac could sit outside. Tom commented, if that were the case, that he would wish for it to stay warm. Funny how simple, kind words from special people just stick with you.

  13. Impressive warmth this month for sure. Nevertheless, I think some may be jumping on the “winter will be mild, too” bandwagon. It’s too early to tell. It’s October 21st. We’re two months away from the shortest day of the year. Patterns have both a way of stubbornly sticking around for long periods of time (the current pattern is an example), AND changing in unpredictable ways. I used to read Brett Anderson’s long-range forecasts – based mostly on Euro model output. I no longer do. Not because I don’t like Brett Anderson. I do. But, because the long-range forecasts hardly ever materialized. So, while we can speak of general trends based on phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, it’s folly in my opinion to predict a mild winter on October 21st.

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