Monday Forecast

53 Comments

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 23-27)
Marine air has invaded the region and as a southerly air flow overtakes the region today and continues through Tuesday and Wednesday, along with the approach of a slow-moving cold front from the west, we will see an increasing likelihood of wet weather, which is again badly needed. Drier weather returns later in the week although upper level low pressure may still trigger some showers Thursday.
TODAY: Areas of fog this morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 65-73. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-64. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers. Highs 65-73. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, some heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 58-64. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely, some heavy. Chance of thunderstorms mainly early. Highs 60-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts early, shifting to W and gradually diminishing.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
Weekend of October 28-29 warms up with fair weather Saturday then more clouds Sunday. A transition back to cooler again with some unsettled weather during the last 2 days of the month should lead to a fair and chilly start to November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)
Pattern currently looks seasonable to cool with a few episodes of unsettled weather but no major storminess.

53 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  5. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Although I know it was foggy around parts of the area, I did not see any at my house nor on the away into the office. 😀

    Pat’s surely looked better last night, although we may have to attribute at least some
    of that to the competition or lack there of….

  9. Thanks TK, hope you’re feeling better!

    Still eyeing that severe threat for Tuesday-Wednesday. Rain threat as well, although most indications now are that totals should remain under 3″ just about everywhere, and probably not much more than 2″ for most. We need it. SPC outlooks are interesting and IMO look pretty good for locations and impacts on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Pockets of damaging winds the primary threat given the LLJ. As I alluded to yesterday, also a low but non-zero tornado threat as also noted now by SPC and NWS OKX. Would look for that risk mainly to our south/west on Tuesday PM, but possibly a renewed threat over central/eastern SNE early Wednesday. Again, a highly conditional risk as it usually is around here, but quite an interesting setup especially on the NAM. The pattern may not be turning especially cold, but it is turning more unsettled.

  12. Thanks TK !

    The fog has burned off, its mostly sunny.

    The temp has zoomed from 58F to 70F with a dewpoint slightly over 60F.

    This was wonderful during the weekend, but today is causing uncomfortable classrooms with AC’s having been removed. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙁 Oh well ……….

  13. If one compares the NOAA winter outlook with today’s 12z GFS, its kind of eerie how they are fairly similar.

    As I recall, the NOAA gives greater odds to the northern part of the US from the Great Lakes westward to see below normal temps, with the northeast being the one part of the northern tier with greater odds to see above normal temps.

    Today’s 12z GFS shows plunge after plunge of cool to cold air into the mid west, intermountain west and great lakes, yet …….. Storms continually form to our west over the eastern Great Lakes, cutting off the cold air’s advancement and putting New England into repeated warm sectors.

  14. Including yesterday, Logan’s monthly temp for October is currently 62.6F, which is 7.2F above average.

    September’s average monthly temp is 64.9F.

    So, October is running only 2.3F below what would usually be September’s average. It really isn’t too much of a stretch to say that we have experienced September’s temperatures again in October.

  15. Hello.

    I was out and just returned to the office and I could see the fog bank to the East looming in and around Financial District buildings. I wanted to take a photo, but was in traffic.
    I don’t have a good vantage point here in the office, so I don’t have a nice photo to share.
    I can tell you that it looked pretty cool. Sun is out brightly here, but there is fog a mile or 2 to the East. 😀

    1. Neat !

      Its like 2 different worlds within a couple miles of each other. Seen what you are describing many times here in Marshfield.

    1. Hey, I have so many interruptions around here, I think I lost track of what I was doing. Sorry about the duplicate.

  19. I have arrived at my SNE winter forecast. It will be HHH all the way. I relied heavily on the BASIC (Barbados, Aruba, San Andres, Isla Mujeres, Curacao) model.

  20. I would not be surprised if the SPC puts a 2% tornado chance in areas under a slight risk in SNE tomorrow.

  21. I would certainly expect at least 2% tornado risk from the SPC tomorrow.

    We’re getting into range of most of the simulated radar models now. I gotta say, the WRF guidance (ARW, NMM, hi-res NAM) makes me a little uneasy. Strong consistency for widespread low topped line segments and a few discrete cells. We’ll have the severe risk mainly to the west and southwest tomorrow afternoon. That will carry a damaging wind/isolated tornado threat. Possibly a brief lull as things shift east overnight. For where most of us on this blog are, I think Wednesday morning, early, is the more concerning time. Possibly in the 3-8AM range, we may see a renewed risk for those threats farther east. Daytime heating is not really a factor here. This will be shear driven, low-topped convection. Everything has to come together on the meso level to get one of those brief, non-classic supercell tornadoes, but I don’t see anything that makes it less likely from this event than, say, Concord in 2016. Best to be aware of the risk IMO especially if most of us will be sleeping when the chance is highest.

  22. Thanks, TK. Take care of yourself.

    Vicki, did you say you knew Denny McLain? He won 31 games in 1968. He threw 336 innings and 28 complete games! That will never happen again, with pitch counts and innings quota’s as well as current starting rotations all feature 5 starters, which limits the numbers of games started per pitcher. McLain’s involvement with organized crime certainly put a blemish on him.

    1. Wow. Really? I went to dinner with him, my mom and Ted when they were playing in Boston. I am afraid I was more interested in nice looking guy and had no idea about all of that. And he was as nice as he was nice looking. I do recall Ted thought he and Howard had exceptional talent.

      1. That is such an incredible thing, to have dined with Ted Williams and Denny McClain. McClain was an exceptional talent. I think, however, that his arm was overused. He had to inject so much cortisone to overcome pain that his arm suffered long-term side effects. You can catch Denny on Detroit sports radio. He has a Sunday show.

      2. Truly awesome. You were so lucky.

        My celebrity experience included:

        Lunch with Bob Gamere
        18 holes of golf with Don Marcott
        a few holes of golf with Chi Chi Rodriguez.

        BUT, I’d take yours over mine any day. 😀

  24. Good morning,

    surprised to wake up to some rain already. 0.15 inch here in JP so far.

    radar

    https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=BOX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=0.4152173913043478&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=355.4450261780104&centery=313.455497382199&transx=-44.55497382198962&transy=73.45549738219898&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=Show&smooth=0&rand=25147354&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

    2. Had that here too. Layers of clouds. Breaks to the east allowing sunlight onto middle clouds hidden by a layer of lower clouds. Instead of seeing the colored middle clouds, you saw the glow they cast onto the stratus deck below it.

  27. Picked up a couple more hundreths. Up to 0.17 inch.
    Looks like rain is about to temporarily end. Wonder when it picks up again?

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