Wednesday Forecast

66 Comments

2:20AM

Slightly altering the format today for two 7-day periods.

DAYS 1-7 (OCTOBER 25-31)
A more unsettled weather pattern is here and marks a transition from the anomalously warm pattern to a more seasonable but variable temperature pattern. As elongated upper level low pressure slowly makes its way toward the East Coast a surface front will inch eastward through Thursday, and a new low pressure area will form on this front and prolong the unsettled weather right through Thursday evening. By Friday-Saturday, drier and somewhat cooler air will arrive. But the cycle is poised to repeat by the end of the weekend as another system approaches from the west and brings another bout of wet weather Sunday night and Monday. This one is expected to move along a little more quickly and should allow dry weather albeit fairly cool conditions to move in for Halloween next Tuesday.
TODAY: Cloudy. Frequent showers including downpours and a slight chance of thunder southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI, with more occasional showers to the west. Local flooding in heavier rain areas. Highs 64-70. Wind S 15-25 MPH with higher gusts in eastern areas, W 5-15 MPH in western areas.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Occasional to frequent showers. Lows 52-58. Wind variable 5-15 MPH mainly S to W.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Occasional to frequent showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Lingering showers especially RI, eastern MA, and southern NH. Lows 50-56. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Drying out. Highs 58-64. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs in the 60s.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely at night. Lows from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Highs in the 60s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s but turning cooler late.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 8-14 (NOVEMBER 1-7)
A couple episodes of wet weather may take place during the course of the first week of November. Not even out of the question some areas see their first mix/flakes of the season briefly later in the period as a push of colder air arrives after early to mid period temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal. As always will continue to assess the situation and fine-tune as we go.

66 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Not that anyone is awake – but we just had a period of what sounded like torrential rain here in Westford – although now it appears to be lightening up slightly.

    1. With the front sitting right over the area, southerly winds loaded with moisture, there will be downpours aplenty around the region for 2 more days.

  5. Just curious, where does October sit right now in terms of average high temp? I cannot remember consistent warmth like we have seen this month. Thanks.

  7. Thanks TK. Quite an interesting night. Into a bit of a lull now, but scattered showers and a few downpours remain likely today and tomorrow, especially east. Watching for a coastal low riding up along the back of the front by late Thursday into Friday which could renew the widespread heavier rain especially north and east.

    Finally, watching late Sunday into Monday. Very similar setup develops to this current event with another deep trough over the Great Lakes. However, a potential wildcard here is Invest 93L in the Caribbean. This system has some potential to become a tropical depression or storm, but regardless of development it may become entrained in the frontal system and add a tropical enhancement to the next rain event. If all comes together right, given the recent rain and potential for more in the next couple days, we may be watching the river gauges by Monday, which would be quite a turnaround from the drought of the past couple months. Pattern still looks generally active beyond then as well. I largely agree with TK’s forecast.

  10. Did Boston miss that big blob of heavy rain that was over Taunton earlier this morning? It was expected by 8:00 am but seemed to disappear.

  13. Well, I had a major meltdown….always fun to watch…reset everything in the house since no one else in the neighborhood lost Verizon. And seem to have service returned. For now. I think I’m over my meltdown

    Back to weather….we have had .47 since midnight. Before losing everything around 9:00 we had 1.55. We did miss the worst, or so my tiny little iphone radar showed, overnight. Sure looked as if east and west of here were clobbered

    1. It stinks to lose power. I’d have a meltdown, too. I recall a similar situation in January 1996. The entire neighborhood had power, but we didn’t (or so it seemed). And this was during a major snowstorm (18 inches or so) followed by bitterly cold temps. No heat for about 24 hours, though I was well prepared as I had the fireplace going 24/7.

      1. Oh I don’t mind power. I’d be happy losing internet if we had a power failure. But there was no reason for verizon service loss that I could figure out and I get obsessed if I can’t figure something out šŸ™‚

  14. Thank you, TK.

    I see that the core of cold will be centered around Minnesota and North Dakota. I actually this is a fairly typical scenario for late October/early November. That is, the real cold tends not to be centered over New England until much later.

  15. Just measured 3.00″ exactly in my rain gauge here. I could see us doubling this easily by next Monday.

      1. Could be, but I caution that it is the GFS.

        What does the Euro look like? We shall see. It looks like it
        wants to have something in the area around then. šŸ˜€

      2. Check out the Euro. It is has the system as an inside runner
        that pummels parts of upstate New York with 6+ inches of
        rain. For our area, it’s only showing around an inch or so.

  16. Although the area still has Southerly winds, the air mass feels different. It feels cool and raw as opposed to Tropical. I was just out for a bit and returned to the office.
    No rain either. Most rain has pushed off to the East, however, there is more]bubblng up to the South. Does it get in here?

    Only 1.57 inches recorded in my rain gauge the last 2 days. Seems like other areas received much more rain.

    Here is a graph from my weather station:

    https://imgur.com/a/lSDqP

    1. Nice graph. Maybe some day I’ll get my station up and running!

      I have windows cracked a bit and agree re feel. I’m thinking of switching to a long sleeved tee but my guess is that it’ll feel too warm.

    1. Thanks TK for sharing SAK’s blog. I find it fascinating that the Cape has totally escaped the drought while everyone else is almost bone dry. Also fascinating is that many times during the winter months while most of us are covered in relatively deep snow, the Cape is usually totally bare ground. Sometimes it seems like Cape Cod has its own climate, separated from the rest of NE and the northeast.

      2. I’d say the Cape, but especially the Islands, do have a different climate, and correspondingly different vegetation, soil, ecosystem. Boston and vicinity are less influenced by the sea (ocean) and more influenced by the continental landmass to our west, southwest, and north. This implies far greater temperature variation than, say, Nantucket. For example, In spring and summer a southwesterly usually means warmth or even heat for a place like Boston, while for Nantucket a southwesterly often produces much cooler temperatures in spring (ocean is still cool) and this even lasts throughout most of the summer. In winter, a northwesterly may moderate a bit before it hits Boston with cold, but that moderation is amplified on Nantucket where 0F is very rare, and even 10F exceptional.

  21. I’m a little concerned that somebody picks up 2-4 inches of rain in a short period of time tomorrow afternoon or early evening. That would result in significant flooding if it occurs in a poor drainage area.

  24. In case no one has noticed..two months until Christmas Day! šŸ˜€

    Any guesses as to what our airmass might be two months from today? šŸ˜‰

    The way our climate is nowadays, any type is on the table.

  25. I’ve definitely got concerns about late Sunday into Monday. That thing will be loaded. I hadn’t been so focused on tomorrow although some rain is likely, but the 3km NAM is interesting, and if TK is concerned, I’ll be watching.

    We’ve had a very narrow band of moderate to heavy rain parked near or over us for about two hours here in Plymouth, NH. That thin band has extended all the way to CT at times. The radar has been fascinating today. Too much going on to sum up concisely! Such a drastic change from the recent pattern, although we certainly haven’t gotten the cold. Just the rain.

    1. And just the evolution of rain today and how it has developed and regenerated is enough to concern me a little given that things won’t be changing too much at all by tomorrow. Plenty of moisture close by. One of those times when “the atmosphere wants to rain”, and it’s sometimes hard to explain but it happens. Same thing can happen with snowy periods or long dry periods like the past month before this event.

    1. Mine turned out to be my system….or perhaps a surge from the wind and rain. If they have anther outage here, my power better go with it šŸ˜ˆ

  27. Last night it was 103F at game time in LA. Shattered the previous record (Phoenix; 98F in 2001). Speaking of baseball, someone’s got to tell the media to lay off baseball a bit for lengthy games. There have been plenty of efficient games during this year’s playoffs: 3 hours or less. Last night was over in less than 2-and-a-half hours. The NFL can’t beat that. In fact, I’d say many NFL games this year (and last) have seemed interminable, poorly played, and just plain boring in some cases (this includes most of the Patriots’ games thus far). In terms of really good all-round play (very few errors, excellent pitching, timely hitting with some power, smart base-running), baseball’s actually doing well. I’d say the sport’s crop of top athletes is better than it was 10-15 years ago. Too bad this hasn’t corresponded to higher viewership.

    6. Thank you all for these amazing links. Sure brings back a special time with music I believe is the best there is. What a great time to be a kid.

      A very sad night indeed

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