Friday Forecast

26 Comments

3:53PM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)
High pressure brings great autumn weather through Saturday. Another potent storm system is going to impact the region later Sunday into Monday, similar in some aspects to the last system but a slightly faster-moving and shorter-duration event, first taking its time to move in during Sunday but then causing a fair amount of wind and rain by Sunday night and into Monday before low pressure wraps up and moves north of the region and pulls dry air in behind itself later Monday and into Tuesday. While the rain event is ongoing, moisture from the tropics will be drawn northward into it, helping to enhance the rain. We may see isolated to scattered power outages due to strong wind gusts bringing down tree limbs and in some cases entire trees that remain weakened from recent drought. A fair amount of the foliage on the trees is likely to come off with this event. Also, look for street flooding due to leaf-clogged storm drains.
REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Sun and high clouds. Temperatures 56-62 will cool back slowly. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-40 interior valleys, 40-45 elsewhere. Wind light SW.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Isolated showers into afternoon. More widespread showers arriving west to east later in the day and becoming heavier at night. Highs 62-67. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts becoming stronger with higher gusts at night.
MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periodic showers. Windy. Lows from the middle to upper 50s. Highs from the upper 50s to lower 60s.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Breezy. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the middle 50s to near 60.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)
A frontal boundary nearby during this period makes for an uncertain forecast. Going to go with the idea of a light rain event November 1 or 2, clouds more dominant than sun each day, and temperatures variable but averaging near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
High pressure should bring fair weather early in the period and then unsettled weather may return later in the period.

26 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

    1. I couldn’t see here and from my phone, I could not tell which model that
      is. Is it the GFS? Because it does not look like the EURO output I saw.

      Thanks

  5. Thanks TK.
    High Wind and Flash Flood Watches up for the region. I would not be surprised the High Wind Watch gets upgraded to a High Wind Warning in parts of SNE later today.

    1. This explains tropopause fold as simply as I could find. Anything else available is PHD level atmospheric physics.

      5.1.3 Tropopause Folds — Another mechanism for STE is tropopause folding events. A stratospheric intrusion of air that sinks into the baroclinic zone beneath the upper tropospheric jet stream is known as a tropopause fold. They form by a steepening of the tropopause (and isentropes) at a jet core. Tropopause folds are the dominate and most efficient form of STE in the middle latitudes. Folds usually occur of the western flank of cutoff low systems. Clean, dry stratospheric air, rich in ozone and potential vorticity, is transported downward to tropospheric levels. Observations of the circulation near folding events reveal that tropospheric air is being advected upwards as well. This tropospheric air contains large amounts of water vapor, carbon monoxide, aerosols and low values of potential vorticity.

      1. Oh and I should add that STE means
        Stratosphere–Troposphere Exchange. Stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) is a part of the general circulation of the atmosphere that transports air and atmospheric constituents across the tropopause. … The tropopause thus acts as a barrier to upward transport of air and pollutants.

  8. There is going to be some power issues tomorrow night if those wind gusts end up verifying. Storm tracking just west of CT putting us on the windy side.
    Could this be the third significant Oct. 29th storm this decade? 2011 Snowtober 2012 Sandy.

    1. Could be. My wife is worried about trees coming down. The SE wind
      is not a wind we would like as there are some trees a little too close
      to us with that wind direction.

    2. JJ….myDaughter and I were talking about those yesterday. Snowtober is one of the storms that will remain in my memory. And two halloweens in a row without power was tons of fun. The following year my then six year old grandson was confused as to why we actually had power in Halloween.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Is anyone out there? I can’t see past end of driveway with fog

    And JJ …..power outages you say? If you are on east of storm , then I am assuming I am also 🙂

    1. check wind gusts above, particularly the NAM. 60-70 mph!!!

      Of course the GFS is much more tame, more like 50 mph.

      1. Really? Sun still trying to burn fog off. Was the heaviest we have had this season. I really could not see houses across the street earlier

        And I will check those winds. Wow. Even 50 is interesting

    3. From NWS this morning:

      Sunday into Monday…

      */ Highlights…

      – Impressively strong late October storm system takes aim at SNE
      – FLASH FLOOD WATCH for Sunday into Sunday night, 2-4″ event
      – HIGH WIND WATCH Sunday night into Monday, 50-70 mph gusts
      – STORM WATCH Sunday night, 45 to 60 kts (51.8 to 69.1 mph)

  10. Vicki The thinking from some our meteorologists here in CT is with the storm tracking to the east of CT the flood threat has lessened but the wind threat has come up. Were under high wind watch where I am.

  11. My bad storm tracking west of CT not east of CT. Being on the west side of the storm is the windier side.

  12. Blanket of thick ground fog in some interior areas due to radiational cooling bringing the temp right to the dew point. Classic.

    New post!

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