Saturday Forecast

35 Comments

8:54AM

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28-NOVEMBER 1)
High pressure provides one more very pleasant autumn day today, then a drastic shift takes place during Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west, low pressure forms on it off the Mid Atlantic Coast, intensifies while tracking northward up along the front into a powerful low pressure area, and also links with a tropical system to the south taking in some of its moisture. This combination will lead to a 2-part wind event and heavy rain event, with the strongest wind from the southeast ahead of the low, a lulling as it goes across the region Sunday night as the heaviest band of rain comes through, and a pretty significant westerly wind behind it as it dries out during Monday. By Halloween on Tuesday it will be breezy, chilly, but dry with wind settling down by evening. As November gets underway, we’ll start it with a chill in the air.
TODAY: Early fog dissipating interior valleys. Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Passing brief light rain showers possible, favoring RI and eastern MA through mid morning, then anywhere after 2PM. Highs 60-67. Wind S to SE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts by late in the day.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Overcast with moderate to heavy rain arriving evening then departing before dawn with general rain amounts 1-3 inches likely. Local flooding, especially on streets and in parking lots with leaf-clogged storm drains. Leaves on roads will make them slippery as well. Lows 53-60. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH central MA and southwestern NH, and 25-35 MPH with gusts 45-60 MPH elsewhere.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing rain showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 60-67. Wind S shifting to W 15-25 MPH gusting 35-45 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s. Evening temperatures in the 40s. Breezy during the day, less wind evening.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)
Current timing suggests warm frontal passage with lots of clouds and a risk of light rain November 2, a cold front passing with a few rain showers then windy and cooler November 3, a fair weekend November 4-5 with a chilly start and mild finish and still milder November 6 as the jet stream lifts to the north of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)
Minor systems bringing mainly surface airmass changes but overall a milder than average temperature pattern expected as cool air masses from the north are prevented from fully impacting the region in a somewhat zonal pattern but a slight trough West / ridge East configuration.

35 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you.
    A couple of re-posts

    JimmyJames says:
    October 28, 2017 at 8:09 AM
    Couple tweets from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan with graphics with the upcoming storm.
    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/924235292244168705

    https://twitter.com/ryanhanrahan/status/924240193904959489
    Reply
    JpDave says:
    October 28, 2017 at 8:38 AM
    This explains tropopause fold as simply as I could find. Anything else available is PHD level atmospheric physics.

    5.1.3 Tropopause Folds — Another mechanism for STE is tropopause folding events. A stratospheric intrusion of air that sinks into the baroclinic zone beneath the upper tropospheric jet stream is known as a tropopause fold. They form by a steepening of the tropopause (and isentropes) at a jet core. Tropopause folds are the dominate and most efficient form of STE in the middle latitudes. Folds usually occur of the western flank of cutoff low systems. Clean, dry stratospheric air, rich in ozone and potential vorticity, is transported downward to tropospheric levels. Observations of the circulation near folding events reveal that tropospheric air is being advected upwards as well. This tropospheric air contains large amounts of water vapor, carbon monoxide, aerosols and low values of potential vorticity.
    Reply
    JpDave says:
    October 28, 2017 at 8:41 AM
    Oh and I should add that STE means
    Stratosphere–Troposphere Exchange. Stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) is a part of the general circulation of the atmosphere that transports air and atmospheric constituents across the tropopause. … The tropopause thus acts as a barrier to upward transport of air and pollutants.
    Reply
    JpDave says:
    October 28, 2017 at 8:29 AM
    Amazing stuff for tomorrow night.

    NAM wind gusts!!!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017102806&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=051

    GFS Wind Gusts

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2017102806&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=045
    Reply

  4. So, I come on here not to talk about the weather, but to talk about the ocean.
    1. Austrailia is looking at some oil companies some of which are consideredto go to the Austrailian bight to drill Oil. One natural wonder in Australia has been having a tough time in the GReat Barrier reef. But this enviornment is flourishing at the moment with Kelp, seagrass and other habitats with most of Austrailia’s fishing industry based here. This is filled with marine sanctuaries. Its just sad.
    http://www.ogj.com/articles/2016/10/karoon-awarded-permit-in-great-australian-bight.html
    I have a really funny video on facebook book involving this crap but it has bad language so won’t post it on here. But just letting people know that its not just hear that the countries are having problems with the dam oil companies. The Citizens, Fishermen and scientists in Australia are extremely angry about this.

      1. You know that I know that. Just using this for this instance
        because I am pissed it’s coming in the middle of the night. 😀 😀

    1. That would not be 100% the case. It’s a moderate correlation but not a guarantee. I will agree that all signs I have seen so far lean mild.

      That said, “mild” does not automatically translate to no snow.

  11. Last winter a perfect example of mild meaning no snow. At BDL 62.8 inches of snow fell on what was a mild winter.

    1. Thanks for sharing JPD. The scene looks more like a few days either side of Labor Day than days on the verge of Halloween. Sadly our global warming climate has totally gone berserk…the new normal unfortunately.

      1. This is actually more a product of this year’s (and a result of last year’s) pattern than anything else.

        Find a picture of this in 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017 and compare them. Then go back and look at a picture of this in 2001.

        To label the climate as having gone totally berserk is a complete overstatement. We CANNOT keep just automatically blaming one cause for difference. While there may be valid truth to a shift in overall climate for some of these, looking at one photograph from a year we were on the warm side of a blocking pattern for several weeks and placing one reason as the result is not a wise practice. You have to look at the entire picture. It would be like me looking at a picture of the dustbowl from the 1930s and automatically placing a label on its cause. We already know that this year’s foliage in leaves unaffected by fungus is 1 to 2 weeks behind that of just 2 years ago due to the recent weather pattern. You’re visually seeing that from the photo. Shift related to long term climate is much more gradual. If anyone doubts this, I have been chronicling foliage seasons through photos of the same trees during the last 12 years and I can put together a little timeline to show the foliage year-to-year using these trees.

        And before anybody accuses me here of downplaying climate change, don’t bother, because that is not what I am doing. I’m asking people to take a step back and look at the entire picture before just labeling something. Doing that is just as ignorant as dismissing something without knowing all the facts (or at least gathering as many as possible).

  16. TK what are your thoughts on the NWS mentioning possibility of strong to severe storms and what area do you see as having the best potential for thunderstorms with this storm system?
    Thanks

    1. Not only that, Tornado Ted was at it mentioning the possibility of “rotating” storms. 😀 😀 😀

    2. The thought process is convection bringing damaging wind gusts to the surface and that is quite possible.

  17. I’m skeptical of any severe weather with this event. Scattered damaging winds are likely, which may be enhanced in any thunderstorms, but that risk exists everywhere regardless of convection. As for the rotating storms, I’m not too impressed. I had much more concern for that with the prior event. Just don’t think we’ll have the instability. You don’t need much, but you need a little.

    Kind of excited to watch this whole thing play out. I think there’s still a tremendous amount of uncertainty given how close we are to the event. Very difficult to pin down what the rain/wind maxes will look like and what the storm structure will be like. Mostly due to lingering questions about the tropical features to our south and how they interact with the trough. Certainly high impact potential on both the rain and wind threats, the rain threat greatest inland and the wind threat greatest at the coast and higher elevations inland. Funny how this exact time of year is such a magnet lately for these big impact storms.

    1. There are going to be a lot of people that ask “where is the rain?” and/or “where is the wind”? as early as midday Sunday. That will weed out the ignorant pretty quickly.

      Then after the event, which will present some high variability, there will be people that say it was one of the wimpiest events they have ever seen, and proceed to slam all weather people. That will weed out more ignorance and even doubly label some.

      Then there will be people who actually release that 1) the general media overstates these events for ratings and 2) such events often do present high variability and cannot be described with blanket statements only. These are the people that can actually think for themselves or take the time to learn how this stuff actually works.

      Lately the general attitude of the public (NOT talking about specific people here, I mean in general) thinking they are all experts in the field of meteorology is honestly starting to piss me off. I’m nice about it most of the time but right now I’m not feeling as friendly about it. Too bad. I’ve earned the right to be cranky on this one people. 😉 Deal with it.

      Have a good day all and enjoy the “perfect storm, part 2”, the “major northeaster” (that isn’t actually a northeaster), “the worst storm in history”, or whatever you want to call it. 😛

  18. New post!

    Mom has a bug so going to take care of things for her in the early morning and then we have a big parade in Woburn this afternoon. Will be attending that with my son. 🙂

    Enjoy discussing the weather and the Pats on the new post and I’ll chime in later with any updates.

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