Saturday Forecast

84 Comments

6:56AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)
High pressure hangs on today with fair weather. A warm front approaches Sunday then passes through at night introducing a shot of very mild air once again for Monday before a stronger cold front brings more seasonable air into the region by Tuesday and Wednesday.
TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 53-58. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 48-55. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures steady or slowly rising. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with increasing chance of showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms afternoon and evening. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
Fair and slightly milder November 9 then an arctic cold front will bring a shot of very chilly air to the region along with gusty wind November 10. High pressure brings fair weather for Veterans Day November 11 but with a very cold start. Unsettled weather returns as low pressure approaches then moves through from west to east during November 12-13.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
A fairly zonal (west to east) flow will bring cooler weather to start then a moderating trend with mainly dry weather expected.

84 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK! Have a good time at the Wx Conference and let us know if other mets have thoughts about the upcoming winter. 🙂

    Btw, Barry has 33 for a high for Friday. Yikes!!!

  4. As everyone here knows by now as to how much I hate dark mornings, it was a very nice bright full moon in the western sky prior to sunrise. 🙂

    Had it been tomorrow morning, I would have missed it.

    1. Verbatim rip and read from Euro op I’m pretty sure. Cold airmass for sure relative to what we’ve seen, but I don’t think that verifies. Low 40’s I’d suspect for the coastal plain.

  10. Want to sneak this in before we hear what they said at the conference.

    Winter prediction (guess 🙂 )

    La Niña (SE Ridge) + mostly neutral or positive NAO + persistence of fall pattern = below normal snowfall and above normal temps.

    Predominate storm track : clippers, majority of which head up St Lawrence River valley and from Rockies to Ohio valley through New England with Snow to ice or snow to rain.

    Boston : 29.6 in
    Worcester : 40.2 in
    Providence : 25.8 in
    Hartford : 32.3 in
    Albany : 37.9 in
    Concord NH : 51.7 in
    Burlington VT : 63.4 in

    1. See below. You’re probably spot on. I hope My gut feelings are Wrong, but
      I am thinking along your line or perhaps even lower. Did you see
      Yesterday, I said 30 inches for Boston. (or perhaps it was the day before?)

    1. That is quite a change for sure !!

      I’m going to guess the 12z EURO won’t change as much from its previous run.

      However, in 72 to 96 hrs, I’d guess that it’s trof won’t be as deep and its cyclogenesis in Nova Scotia won’t be as strong and thus, we’ll end up in the 40s next Friday.

    1. Then again oak trees are loaded with acorns. Bunnies are extremely fat, squirrels are fat and storing food and been seeing geese in the flying v going south

  15. A repeat of 2011/2012 is unlikely as that was an anomalously mild winter. I believe Logan came in at 10 inches that winter. Nevertheless, signs point towards a milder than average winter. While I don’t like snow-to-rain scenarios – which often produce bountiful snow in ski country – I think we’ll experience a lot of that this winter. My best guess is 26 inches at Logan; 29 on Boston Common; 31 in Jamaica Plain; 56 in Worcester; 51 in Sutton; 41 in Methuen; 34 in Woburn; 24 in Providence; 17 in Marshfield; very little on Cape and Islands.

  17. 9.3 inches for winter of 2011-12 for Boston. It came in second for least snowiest winters on record.

  18. I see some snow guesses. If they are the ones you plan to go with for the snow contest, would you please also put them on the contest page as well as here so I can find them once I have the database set up. Mac’s sister is arriving for a weekend visit….her plane just landed….and I won’t be able to keep track until at least Tuesday.

    1. I hope the deadline for the contest isn’t coming up. I am still digesting that icky warm October. I prefer to wait until the temps and any snowfall November brings first.

      Let’s make the deadline December 1st!

        1. Unless TK says differently for this year, it was dec 1 last year. Thanksgiving is a bit early this year?? Dec 1 is a week after.

          I’m not ready yet with, Philip 🙂

  24. Good time as always today at the SNE Weather Conference. Lots of interesting talks and some really nice tributes to Dick Albert. Bumped into our friend TK along with plenty of other familiar faces 🙂

    1. Fabulous conference! Nice to see you. I ran into about 8 or 10 people between here and a group I’m part of on FB.

      I got some nice pictures including Natalie Jacobson & Harvey Leonard (as well as those that spoke tributes) during the Dick Albert remembrance. I finally got to show Harvey the picture of Dickie and myself in my 9th grade year when he came to the school.

      Had a nice long chat with Barry about weather including thoughts on the coming winter. I am going to respectfully hold off on his specific thoughts as he will be communicating these through their blog and in weathercasts on WBZ. I will tell you so far we’re in agreement but are both waiting to see what happens in November. That, we both agree, is a huge key to the forecast.

      Got to check in with the likes of many past & present TV folks today…

    1. That would be because it’s early November. 🙂

      Measurable snow before Thanksgiving is fairly rare.

        1. 1989 thanksgiving storm. It was significant. You are probably right in 1987. A friend told me it always snowed by nov 11 and I didn’t believe it. Sure enough we had snow either on or just before nov 11. It had to,have been around that time

          1. A general 3-7 inch powder snowstorm occurred on November 11 1987.

            It rained buckets on Thanksgiving Day that year. I remember watching Woburn go on the road and beat Winchester 24-0 in the traditional game that sloppy day.

      2. Not up North and that was my point which obviously I didn’t make very well. All the snow is well North of the US border. You would think Northern VT, NH and Main would have some.

  26. So last night I came back to Nantucket, Today was the NBI conference. It was my first time presented my own research that I did over the summer to a group of 60 to 70 something people…… I was not expecting that many people lol.

  28. TK – What is the general feeling you and your colleagues from the Conference have about November regarding temps and type of precipitation?

    1. Euro has the precipitation for the 14th, but has temperature profile quite a bit
      milder so no snow, not even up in Ski country. At least not with the 0Z run
      from last night.

    2. it will depend on how far south the low coming from the lakes make it before a disturbance to the south of the region makes it up the coast and absorbs the low south of the region. If the energy coming from the lakes is quick enough, some cooler air could make its way in before hand.

  34. IF we get a strong enough system around November 12-14 the highest peaks may see snow. Not likely anywhere else. The cold that comes in before it is not here to stay but passing through rapidly.

    New post is up!

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