Monday Forecast

84 Comments

4:53AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)
One more day of unseasonable warmth before we enter a new pattern, which gets introduced by a strong cold front passing through tonight, preceded by rounds of rain showers, a few of which may be heavy. A little wave on the front may try to hold some cloudiness in the region on Tuesday but otherwise high pressure will build north of the region and provide dry and seasonably chilly air through midweek. A stronger cold front will send an even colder air mass into the region by the end of the week.
TODAY: Partly sunny with a slight risk of isolated to scattered rain showers morning. Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with rain showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-50. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 50-55. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late evening. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated snow showers. Windy Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)
High pressure moves in November 11 with less wind and dry weather but cold air. A fast-flowing west to east jet stream will bring the next disturbance in during November 12-13 with more unsettled weather. This one has the potential to be a significant rain and possibly a moderate to strong wind event. It may linger into November 14 before dry weather returns through November 15.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)
Passing the middle of the month the overall progressive flow pattern will continue with weaker passing systems and temperature changes.

84 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. Don’t forget to check back with me on the Friday night game. I’m still struggling with the timing of the cold front and delivery of coldest air. I may need to adjust the temp DOWN and the wind UP unfortunately. Hinted at it in the forecast above but not convinced yet. Sometimes the models struggle and make it look like the colder air is coming soon when in fact it’s bottled up behind a second front.

      I’ll get it figured out.

  10. 12Z GFS is now on board for SHARPLY COLDER on Friday and Saturday AM.

    These 2 charts are from College of DuPage and one is 18Z temps for Friday and]
    the other is for 12Z temps on Saturday.

    ,HAR_CONSUMERS.CLIENT_ID

  11. I’m guessing it may not be tracked ….

    We have to be close to or set a record for the most days after the vernal equinox and before the winter solstice with dewpoints of 60F or higher.

      1. I never thought of that. I doubt that there are no “official” stats on something like that. I imagine someone would have to literally go back over the years and look up dewpoints day-by-day for that specific time period.

        1. Also I wonder how far back climotologists and mets in the past even measured dewpoints on a daily basis…if there even was a term for that say 100 years ago. I can certainly say that Don Kent and others of his generation knew.

          1. I would say that since our climate was so much cooler compared to this century, we probably at worse, tie for the record. 🙂

          2. The first dry bulb / wet bulb differential (i.e. dew point) measurement was taken in 1799.

    2. It would probably be up there, but it would likely be significantly behind several years. 1989 was one humid autumn. Warm & muggy well into November. 2 severe weather outbreaks in the Northeast which included tornado watches.

  12. Front just pushed through here in Plymouth, NH within the past 10 minutes or so. No mistaking it with a wind shift/increase. Temperature falling now as well. Some of the rain is behind the front though, an “anafrontal” structure. Pattern change!

        1. It’s not a range of prediction. It’s a time period we need to help determine the pattern. Essentially the month of November can hold some pretty decent clues as to the upcoming winter. I feel that this 3-week period upcoming will be the most telling of all.

          2. Of course TK, I understood that it is a period for the upcoming pattern. I just thought that it could be figured out much shorter, more like a 1-2 week period of time. Thanks as always.

            1. Actually, now that I think further about it, why not extend that period through the entire month day 30? Why come up 4 days short TK?

              1. Because I want to have my forecast out as close to Thanksgiving as possible, but either way we’ll pretty much know by then. I’m not waiting until November 30 to make it.

  13. Thank you, TK.

    I don’t think Boston got close to a record high. I didn’t check today, but it didn’t feel like it was 70F or above. Can someone verify this?

    1. I can’t verify, but I was out and about from NOON to about 2:45 PM.
      My car thermometer NEVER went above 65.

  14. On this date in 1894, Boston recorded 3.4″ of snow…fairly impressive for this early in the month IMO.

  15. I think its going to be a roller coaster winter in terms of temps and when we do get cold shots like what is forecasted for Fri and Sat they will be short lived.

  16. I may be out to lunch, but I see a persistent SE ridge, that keeps breaking down and allowing cold shots, only to rebuild. That
    “could” allow for some very interesting situations. Eyeing around 11/19-11/20 or so.

    1. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017110618&fh=132

      I am actually eyeing Monday the 13th, if the northern energy over the lakes on this image digs a bit more south and interacts with the energy over the central plains earlier, we could have an interesting situation as early as Monday as it looks right now the merging happens basically over the lakes into the northeast and just gives us some cool rain

  17. A whopping 0.06 inch of rain at my house in jp. sk much for wankums projected 0.6 inch. only off by a factor of 10.

    1. That’s normal for the NAM.

      And even if it was right in terms of its precipitation, it doesn’t know how warm the ground is.

      But, it’s not going to do that anyway.

  20. this from a weather page I follow

    It’s late fall and the Indians on a remote reservation in South Dakota asked their new president chief if the coming winter was going to be cold or mild.
    Since he was a chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets. When he looked at the sky, he couldn’t tell what the winter was going to be like.
    Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he told his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect firewood to be prepared.
    But, being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He slipped off and called the National Weather Service and asked, “Is the coming winter going to be cold?”
    “It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold,” the meteorologist at the weather service responded.
    So the chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared.
    A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. “Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?”
    “Yes,” the man at National Weather Service again replied, “it’s going to be a very cold winter.”
    The chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find.
    Two weeks later, the chief called the National Weather Service again. “Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?”
    “Absolutely,” the man replied. “It’s looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters we’ve ever seen.”
    “How can you be so sure?” the chief asked.
    The weatherman replied, “The Indians are collecting a shitload of firewood

      1. Some how this sounds vaguely familiar. I must have heard it somewhere in the past. None-the-less its is awesome and a nice story to start my day. 😀

  24. Hey, I left work yesterday in pitch darkness. Tis the season. I adjust. No issues whatsoever. Now will it ever snow? Sooner or later, I hope. 😀 And I hope it is
    sooner.

    TK, Care to elaborate on your previous early thoughts of early season snow this
    year???

  25. I am getting the distinct impression that the Berks, the Worcester Hills and
    the Monadnock region of NH will see some snow in the air tonight. Not sure
    the intensity will be there to overcome the warm ground for an accumulation, but
    SNOW none-the-less. Harvey even mentioned it last evening and now I am
    seeing it on the NAMs and the HRRR.

    We shall see what develops. Certainly NOT expecting anything but rain near
    the coast.

    1. I was surprised to hear this on Elliot Abram’s forecast this morning on BZ.

      Not surprised that there could be a bit of snow on the NW edge.

      I was surprised because as of 6pm last night, most everything I saw showed the precip struggling to get to the immediate south coastline, never mind the northwest suburbs. So, I guess there was a northward trend last night.

        1. Not so fast. Hmmm Latest HRRR has trended South
          and thus is now showing NO SNOW. Oh well, what Can I say???? There will be a next time. 😀

  27. In terms of meaningful snow, I don’t see any opportunity for the next 7-10 days. Which is of course no surprise at all given the time of year. Not really any storms during that time either. We do have a very impressive cold shot on its way for the end of this week. Some moderation behind that as we likely go near seasonable for awhile. The latter half of the month is looking more interesting to me though in terms of the overall pattern. No idea on specifics, but I think the risk is more to the cold side than the warm side with a big drop in the AO.

  28. The EURO weeklies which came out last night are hinting at colder times ahead in weeks 3 and 4. If we could get what Ed Vallee is tweeting things could get interesting entering December. BUCKET LOAD OF SALT BEING TAKEN
    https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/927879866850185216

    Or this tweet from weatheroptics.
    New European Weekly guidance showing a much colder (and possibly snowier) trend for weeks 3 and 4. We’ll be monitoring closely.

    1. Interesting. As always, thank you JJ for sharing.

      It is beginning to look interesting down the road a bit.

      Of course, we won’t know until we get there. I will be watching, that’s for sure.

      That GFS storm is a hint for 11/19 or so. I think that qualifies for week 3?? sure close if not. Waiting on 12Z run to SEE if it is still there. Btw, IF that blocking
      is there and verifies, it will have much to do with forcing a coastal storm
      as the the primary tries to pass through the Lakes, but is blocked and forced
      to transfer energy to the coast. We shall see how it plays out, IF at all.

  29. We have not had much blocking the past few winters. If we could get a setup like the EURO weeklies is showing from Ed Vallee’s tweet that is a setup where we got to watch for east coast storms. I am not saying will get snow but at the very least something to keep an eye on.

    1. It looks on this run that the southern and northern energy never connect and the southern energy moves to the south and east of the area

    2. STATE COLLEGE, PA Radar

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=CCX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25168033&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

      Albany, NY radar

      https://radblast.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=ENX&brand=wui&num=10&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&mapx=400&mapy=240&centerx=400&centery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=Hide&smooth=0&rand=25168034&lat=0&lon=0&label=you

  33. 5 years ago on this date areas impacted by Sandy a week earlier had accumulating snow.
    NYC recorded 4.3 inches from that storm. That winter we had the big blizzard in February.

  35. To address your question above, JP Dave. Yes I still think we will snow early. That does not mean snow alot. It just means early, or earlier than recent seasons.

    Updating now…

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