Wednesday Forecast

31 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)
Wave of low pressure through brought the first snow flakes to parts of the region (mainly north and west of Boston), and rain elsewhere is departing but a northeast wind behind it may hold cloudiness in over southeastern MA much of the day while a clearing trend takes place elsewhere. High pressure moves in tonight which will be clear and cold, ending the growing season in areas it has not ended already, except possibly Cape Cod, but they will not escape a regionwide freeze this coming weekend. Before that happens, we’ll enjoy a fair and slightly milder Thursday before an arctic cold front crosses the region Thursday night and early Friday, opening the door to a taste of winter air. A windy/cold night is in store for any high school football playoff games on Friday night, and a very cold morning can be expected for Veterans Day ceremonies on Saturday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy early with a bit of drizzle or a passing rain shower southeastern MA. Clouds lingering in southeastern MA much of the day with sun returning elsewhere. Highs 46-53. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH, diminishing late.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-26 interior valleys, 27-34 elsewhere. Widespread frost as well as hard freeze in areas under 28. Wind calm.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible overnight. Temperatures fall into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of passing snow showers morning. Temperatures fall into the 30s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, gusting 30-35 MPH. Wind chill temperatures falling into the 20s then the 10s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)
Low pressure moves through the region with a rain risk November 13. Another disturbance may bring unsettled weather during November 15. Otherwise a fair weather interlude November 14 and dry weather returning later in the period. Temperatures variable, near normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 18-22)
Expect a progressive pattern, fairly weak weather systems and changeable temperatures.

31 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. With the excessive warmth of fall seemingly about to temper, here is some data since 9/22 (autumnal equinox).

    Since the equinox, 35 of the 46 days were above normal at Logan.

    23 of 46 days saw high temperatures of 70F or higher.

  3. Thank you, TK

    What started as a few snowflakes mixed with rain in Sutton ended as solid snow that lasted quite a while. It was awesome.

  6. I believe Logan is just about on target date wise for its first frost/freeze. It is either November 7th or 9th…not sure which is accurate.

  7. Things I look at for winter
    ENSO looks to me to be a weak La-Nina boarderline moderate
    sea water temps off the west coast and south of Alaska
    Water temps off our coast.
    Where does a broad SE ridge form is it further to the East or Further west.
    Snowfall over the Rockies ( a skier knows its rather common that when the rockies have a good ski season, it is average at best here in New England)
    Snowfall and cold buildup in Canada.
    Strength of Pacific Jet stream.
    Blocking.

  8. Hello,

    Just checking in. Had meetings all day till now.

    I was disappointed we didn’t get snow at my house. It was really close and there
    may have been a few flakes mixed in, but without sitting in my car watching
    the windshield (that is the absolute best way to know if/when snow is mixing in),
    I have no way of knowing one way or the other. I can only say to the eye looking outside, it appeared to remain all rain.

    It’s a little cooler out, but absolutely BEAUTIFUL! I love it.

  10. Its a miss, but I interpret the GFS and EURO to have another southern stream impulse, rather weak, passing well SE of New England as the arctic air pours into the region Friday. A case where the cold air and precip are going to miss by 100 to 150 miles.

  11. I’m a little less confident about my forecast for next week. Even though the various medium range guidance depicts the same general pattern, the details are quite different between ECMWF and the other guidance. The ECMWF has different ideas about which shortwaves will become more dominant and result in larger storm systems.

    I am going to toss out the pseudo-warning that the outlook for next week is not set in stone and may change fairly significantly as soon as the next blog update. I will re-evaluate this during tonight.

    This is not a surprise (the differences). Barry Burbank and I talked about this issue Saturday at the conference.

  12. Something to keep an eye on. Tweet from meteorologist Ryan Hanrahan
    The weather pattern is definitely interesting going forward. Seems like higher than usual winter storm risk through Turkey Day for the time of year given the amount of high latitude blocking.

  14. I fully realize I am looking for something where there is nothing, But I will toss this out there anyway. Coupled with what Tom posted earlier and looking at the latest 18Z model
    runs, I am wondering IF a sneaky Norlun might set up tomorrow night into
    Friday AM???? I know it is NOT depicted on the models, thus the word sneaky. 😀

    1. Impossible in the setup we’ll have.

      If you want to eye something potentially sneaky, keep an eye on November 15-17.

  16. You will find a new post waiting for you, and my confidence level in the pattern is about half of what it was on the previous post. 😉

    Gotta love meteorology.

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