Thursday Forecast

91 Comments

3:02AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)
A frosty start will be followed by a decent temperature recovery to over 50 for many areas today. But this brief “warm-up” will be a memory after an arctic cold front comes through the region by early Friday, introducing the coldest air in quite some time to the region, along with wind, during Friday, and continued quite chilly but with less wind Saturday. The next low pressure system approaches later Sunday and brings a risk of wet weather by Monday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing rain shower possible overnight. Temperatures fall into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of passing snow showers morning. Temperatures fall into the 30s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, gusting 30-35 MPH. Wind chill temperatures falling into the 20s then the 10s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.
SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows from the upper 10s to middle 20s. Highs in the 40s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Temperatures steady in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)
Watching low pressure which may try to hang close to or just south and east of the region for a portion of this period. Fine line between fair and foul weather so further analysis will be needed to figure out how things run during mid November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
The uncertainty of the period preceding this now throws this period into a little uncertainty. Leaning toward fair weather to start, stormy weather to end, but very far away and much to figure out.

91 thoughts on “Thursday Forecast”

    1. Major update on tomorrow at 7PM and all because the front’s timing is 12 hours faster than I thought 3 days ago.

      Game time temp starts out mid 20s and falls to low 20s.
      Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusts to around 30 MPH.
      Wind chill temps below 20, often as low as 10-15.

      Hey, at least it will be dry! 😉

  4. Thank you TK! My youngest is not happy about having to switch from shorts to pants for school. 🙂 Kid would wear shorts if it was -10 degrees.

    1. hahaha – both of youngest’s son’s are doing the same. They also don’t want to wear jackets. Although I’m not sure her husband has changed yet either.

  6. Good morning and thank you TK.

    A frosty 26.3 at my house in JP this morning. Low temp occurred at 6:25 AM.

  9. Perhaps it is just the way I am wired, but I am rapidly becoming bored
    with our weather. Looking for a BIG storm and as of now, I don’t see it.

    Not for Nothing, but the big Polar Vortex induced East Coast storm portrayed
    on some outlets last evening, has showed up on a model, however WAY OUT TO SEA.
    Here is the link if you would like to see it and it is from InAccuWeather:

    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/polar-vortex-may-unleash-bitterly-cold-air-snow-for-northeastern-us-prior-to-thanksgiving/70003223

    Here’s is a sneak peek of said storm:

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017110906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017110906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_51.png

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017110906/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

    Looks to be a whopper for Atlantic Canada, “should” it ever materialize as depicted.

    For shits and giggles, we should monitor this time period just in case.

  11. OK, what they hey is going on with this GFS run. IF this is even close to what happens,
    we are IN for a very storming period ahead. Take a look at this nifty 12Z GFS forecast loop that I created from the Tropical Tid Bits website (note this does not work in Chrome. It works in IE. not sure about edge):

    https://imgur.com/a/IR3Gc

    There’s no evidence of blocking is there? 😀 😀 😀

  14. We need to get some ice cover onto Hudson Bay and snow cover in eastern Canada to give the cold some staying power to our north. Aside from the very cold blast the next 36 hrs, its going to be hard to see much wintery weather potential in the northeast US until those cold control features are more prevalent to our north.

    1. Oh the snowcover is there. About 75 to 80% of Canada is covered by 8 or more inches of snow as of today.

  16. To answer your 11:32AM question JP Dave: yes.

    About the blocking. It’s quick-trigger blocking. We can block very rapidly. The wall between zonal and blocking is very thin for a while. This makes the pattern this month even more critical for the winter forecast. Talk about maximum difficulty. I thought the winter forecasts for the last 3 years were relatively simple. Not the case this time.

    1. Thanks TK. Most interesting.

      So I guess it means at this point the Winter could still go in either direction?

      1. Yes because so many indices offset to some degree. I don’t see anything that dominates at the moment, so the “default” is the November pattern., which is probably about a 3 out of 4 shot.

        1. Thanks TK. What do you think of the GFS with the time frame 11/18 to 11/24,25???

          That was one crazy loop I saw. Not that is showed much
          snow, but wow, what storminess.

          1. It is portraying a scenario in which the atmosphere blocks. That is possible but it probably won’t be to that extreme. I think the solution is overdone. It may be a more minor blocking or a shorter-lived episode.

  18. Pats have picked up Martellus Bennett off of the waiver wire.
    AWESOME addition. A Substantial upgrade over Dwayne Allen!

    1. I absolutely agree but didn’t Green Bay release him due to a sore shoulder? I just hope we are not getting damaged goods. We desperately need players that can stay healthy the rest of the season.

  20. We may well be heading towards an ideal pattern for early season winter storms. That does not mean it has to snow. But I think we’re poised for the most interesting/active run-up to Christmas and New Years in several years. This extreme early season cold shot is sort of the first strike. And then the warm pattern of weeks past may try to fight back for a little while, but I think it will be overpowered before Thanksgiving.

    I also agree with TK on this: This winter forecast is not easy. I still stand by most of my prior thoughts that big storms will be tough to come by with a prevailing SE ridge.
    But it may be that early winter is the time to watch for the bigger events, and we trend quieter with time, opposite of recent winters.

      1. Ohhhh that is based on nothing other than it seems to be a date Mother Nature likes to celebrate…as do I ….Macs and my anniversary

          1. The 1987-88 winter comes to mind that started fast and literally shut down as fast by March. I may also be totally wrong so if anyone has a different memory by all means correct me on this.

            One stat on that winter that I am 100% certain of: 52.6″ of snow for Logan.

  22. I could remember La Nina winters in 07 and 08 where we got above normal snowfall in December and it looked like we were heading for a very snowy winter only to have things quiet down once we got to the half way point of meteorological winter.

  24. I’m heading up to the white mountains tomorrow for the weekend. It’s looking like I am going to experience my first snow of the season. Thinking I might avoid mount Washington this time around. Forecast is looking a bit nippy….

    Friday
    Snow showers likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny and cold, with a temperature falling to around -5 by 10am. Wind chill values as low as -43. Very windy, with a northwest wind 65 to 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

    1. A lot of ski areas are opening this weekend.

      Side note, what I was afraid of with Stowe has happened, there are no ski bus trips to stowe this year.
      From the new England snowbus
      as it was a very long explanation, I will just say the giff of it.
      Stowe ( vail) did not want to make any deal with the new England snow bus.

    2. The white mountains were like my second home. And This was the weekend, when I was older, that we always headed to Macs uncles, now cousins, ski camp in Stowe. Enjoy Mark. I am sure your memories will be as special as mine 🙂

    3. We were supposed to be hiking this weekend on Saturday but may have to bring the skis instead! Will have to evaluate when we get up there. May still be able to do something lower in elevation if the trails aren’t too icy but definitely going to avoid anything above treeline. Looks brutal over the higher peaks.

    4. My wife and I are looking into a small cottage, cabin it home up near the Whites. We are going to introduce the kids to skiing this year and would like a place we could use most weekends. Does anyone know if seasonal rentals are a option during the winter?

      1. We used to rent in Madison. I think Keith did also. Mac and I also rented in brettonwoods. That is a nice slope for beginners. This was ages ago. Although, a client has a condo at Bretton so I suspect you might find something there

        1. Do you have a mountain you prefer? We skies cranmore but I think it has changed some. Brettonwoods is a nice intermediate slope. If you have trouble, let me know. I can check with my brother. He day skis since he lives in NH but has a lot of friends who might have info

          Nothing like starting kids young. My dad started us all at two. Mac didn’t really ski so we didn’t go as often and then along came the horses and once you are into them plus golf there is no money or time for skiing.

          1. We were thinking Attitash or Wildcat but my consider gun stock. Our kids are 2, 6 and 7 and figure it’s a good time for them to learn. Including my wife. My two year old wear foot braces so skiing will actually help her a lot.

            1. Gunstock is closer to Boston and great for learning. A wonderful beginner to intermediate mt.
              Wildcat is one of my faves but more geared for intermediate to advanced. Wildcat can be cold and windy, more so than Gunstock.

            2. I think there are also condos at Attitash. Unlike MassBay, I never liked Wildcat. I cannot quite recall why. Perhaps, it tended to be more icy because of the direction it faced???

        2. I have been away from skiing so long, I really shouldn’t say anything here, however, I had a friend who had a condo
          at Loon mountain. Loon is a great mountain on which to learn. IN my day it was affectionately termed
          “Medicare” Mountain because it had mostly easy terrain.
          Since then they have added more difficult terrain, but the easy terrain remains as far as I know.

          May want to check it out. Nothing to lose. 😀

            1. I have been skiing many of these mts since 2015 when I fell back into the sport (no pun) and got wickedaddicted. Loon is full of families and an easy 2+ hrs from boston in no traffic. Tons of families up there! The mountain is a good mountain. I would think they are chock full of learning programs. The negative is it gets so crowded so quickly and it is a bit wild on the mountain. My friends say look out for the “Loonatics” after 10-1030 on the weekends 🙂

          2. Loon is another great idea for rental. It is also a bit more accessible since it is a straight shot on the highway.

  25. Remember last Sunday and the EURO projection of 33F for today.

    Pretty amazing accuracy 6 days (144 hrs) out. Great job with the temp idea, but even more so with the pattern projection and the first plunge of very cold air.

  26. First flakes of the season here in Plymouth, NH. Mid-winter cold. Colder than most mid-winter cold even.

  27. Temperature just not dropping like I expected….
    However, the dew point is continually falling.

    Currently temp: 40, DP: 17

    I expect teens at my house tonight while Logan bottoms out in the lower
    20s. Logan record tomorrow AM is 24. Harvey predicted 22 and that sounds about
    right to me. We shall see. So this could literally be RECORD BREAKING COLD.
    Sound ominous, but is totally meaningless. 😀 😀 😀 How long have records been kept? 150 years give or take???

  29. Just came in from a walk to the center to mail a package and a detour by Jamaica Pond.
    Beautiful in the Center with WARM sun, however, in the open by the pond it was like
    in another world. Bitter brutal cold wind blasting right at me. Brrrr

    Any how snapped this photo:

    https://imgur.com/a/6GxGG

    2. I’m going with Pelee Island in the middle of Lake Erie in southern Ontario. I cant find anything further south than that!

    1. 12Z GFS says What? and shows ZIPPO. Here we go again.
      Frankly based on what Harvey said last night, I think the NAM is more
      right than the GFS. We shall see.

  34. Monday could get interesting if your outside of 128 in terms of precipitation, shall see how fast the warmer temps come in.
    I saw talk of winter storms, I see storm oportunities yes, but no meaningful winter storms. Storm track has them going around the lakes and then if any transfer happens to far north. We shall see as there is plenty of time, but I just do not see it until after Thanksgiving.

  35. As I have said my times it does not bother me if it does not snow in November. December through March different story.

    2. Doesn’t bother me if it does snow, or doesn’t snow. I’m glad every winter isn’t the same here. 🙂

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