Wednesday Forecast

64 Comments

3:09AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)
A small area of high pressure provides most of the area with nice weather today but its orientation allows a northeasterly air flow which will hold some cloudiness across southeastern MA especially Cape Cod. A front approaches from the west Thursday, parented by low pressure which will pass north of New England, but along the front a piece of energy aloft will ignite a new storm system which will result in a significant bout of rainfall. As the new storm gets north of our latitude by Thursday night, drier and chilly air will arrive from the west resulting in a brighter but brisk Friday. But the weather pattern is continuing to feature fast-moving systems and the next one will arrive during Saturday with rain arriving during the day from west to east, peaking at night when it will likely be the mildest part of the day, but be gone by Sunday morning which will be another day that turns blustery with falling temperatures as the next cold air mass arrives.
TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy except partly to mostly cloudy southeastern MA. Highs 42-48. Wind NE 5-15 MPH over southeastern MA, light NE to N elsewhere.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 32-38. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving by midday and may start as brief snow/mix north central MA and southwestern NH. Embedded heavy rain and possible thunder later in the day favoring southeastern MA and RI. Highs 44-50. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy early with rain ending. Breaking clouds following. Lows 33-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 42-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain arriving west to east, may start as brief mix interior. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s late day or night.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy very early with any rain ending, then sun/cloud mix and windy. Temperatures falling through the 40s into the 30s by late.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Thanksgiving Week looks mainly dry overall with one cold front causing a risk of a few rain showers late November 21 and possible snow showers early November 22 and another approaching front with possible rain showers by November 24. A cold/breezy November 20, milder and more tranquil November 21, then colder again November 22 and Thanksgiving November 23 before moderation at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Still looking at a blocking pattern with at least one chance for some storminess but low confidence forecast at this time. Will continue to re-evaluate the pattern going forward.

64 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

    1. Recall the statement I made yesterday about the one-run difference in the subtropical jet energy only. You can usually tell when a model is fudged for one run.

      1. YUP and thanks always for your insight and excellent analysis.

        I expect that from the GFS, but was a bit surprised the Euro
        had the same fate. Oh well.

        Hey btw, this “Sneaky” system you mentioned for tomorrow
        about a week ago appears to be really materializing. I see model
        estimates from 1/2 inch to 1 1/2 inches of rain. Not bad. Not bad at all. Nice job. Just wish it were snow, but tis early yet.

  4. Station 44013 (LLNR 420) – BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    Boston Approach Lighted Buoy BF NOAA 44013

    Water Temperature (WTMP): 51.8 °F

    LONG way to go….

      1. Early season, for sure. AND it “appears” to be higher than average for this date. SHOULD be “about” 3-5 degrees lower or in that ball park.

        The water temp was 52 when we had that Oct 30 snow in 2011.

          1. Wow! I am truly surprised. We have made up some ground in the last 8 or 9 days, that’s for sure.

            I still think it is somewhat abover average.

  8. Re water temps. I think they have been in the 40s for several years even in January. I recall mid 40s in January 2011….I think it was 2011…when we were at Humarock for the month.

    1. Sounds about right.

      Within a few miles of the coastline, in shallow bays and certainly harbors, you can see areas of ice, where water temps clearly have fallen into the 30s.

      But, 16 nautical miles or out in the open ocean, low to mid 40s, depending on the weather are common.

  9. The pattern to me looks pretty simple ….

    Chilly, except when there’s low pressure approaching and it precips, then its cool transitioning to mild.

    1. Too many cutters and inside runners lined up… Call me when there’s the possibility of a legitimate coastal.

      1. Don’t hold your breath on those coastals especially if this persistent November pattern represents the upcoming winter.

        Although haven’t we had a few coastals this fall? At least 2 or 3?

        2. They are redevelopments similar to what will happen on Thursday. They are progressive systems in most cases.

  10. I would tend to disagree that this is a simple pattern. In fact, over the CONUS, it’s a pattern that can produce a lot of forecast headaches. A very fast flow which is more or less zonal but with a lot of shortwaves in the mix. The models, especially the global ones, don’t usually resolve that very well. The over-performing rain (and snow up this way) event a couple days ago was one example of that. Tomorrow is another. We’ve seen this incoming “parent” system dropping out of Canada for awhile. However, up until recently the coastal redevelopment, if any, was progged to be a non-factor (though I’ve had some suspicions for several days that it would occur closer and quicker).

    Events like these are why I’ve been saying this pattern is favorable for storminess, even though you may not see it coming too far out. Now we’ll see what happens when we flip the switch on the Greenland block. With such a large transition occurring in that regard, continued struggles and volatility are likely in the guidance. We’ve seen plenty of that lately.

    1. Also, I think the idea that TK and I had of this first 2-3 weeks of November being a good preview of winter has worked out well. It’s definitely not the blowtorch pattern of October. However, getting big coastal storms will be a struggle. Snow we get will have to come in large part from other means, of which there are certainly a few. This pattern at this time of year is difficult to get snow out of for SNE (as is the case for any pattern at this time of year), but if you plop it down in January, you’d have some opportunities.

    2. Perhaps I used the wrong word …. True that no pattern is probably simple.

      How about the sensible weather over the next 10 days to 2 weeks instead? In southern New England, I would say that when the weather is not inclement, it will be fairly chilly, but when a storm system is affecting us, it will be milder with rain.

  11. The trusty 2 year accuweather forecast for my town is showing light snow on 12/15 with the next all snow event occurring on 2/1.

    Those are the only all snow events shown to the end of February.

  15. A fresh half inch to an inch of snow on the ground here in Plymouth, NH this morning. The snow capital of New England this month 🙂

  18. Hello all! What are the current thoughts on the rain arrival time on Saturday? We are about to list or house for sale later today and our agent is trying to schedule open houses on both Saturday and Sunday afternoons – but we are hoping to avoid rain. Thanks as always for any thoughts!

    1. Just looking at the NAM and GFS, Rain “may” hold off until something like
      4 PM or so, but it could always move in earlier. One never knows.

      TK can give you a much better idea.

      1. Thanks Dave! We have just about decided on a 12:30-2 timeframe so with a little luck we can get it in before the rain 🙂

          2. After all – “Life isn’t about waiting for the storm to pass – it’s about learning to dance in the rain.”

              1. Absolutely not :-). You are stuck with us! But we are looking for a smaller town to live in than Westford – our first choice is Harvard and our second choice is Carlisle. I grew up in Concord when it was much less populated than now and we want our son to have the experience of growing up in a small town too.

                1. Sutton!!!!

                  Daughter and I dropped her youngest at pre-school this am. As we drove back, we heard this song. It so fits. We pass big homes and small homes and neighborhoods and wide open fields.

                  Belmont, like Concord, is not the same as when I grew up. I love that my grandkids can experience a small town and also love your decision.

                  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McPn0T20lM4

  21. Hey all! Apologies for lack of update. I’ll catch up on that and any questions regarding timing etc around 3PM today…

  22. Rain now ready to move into Boston area about 2 hours behind schedule. In fact, there was a glimpse or two of the sun about a half hour ago. There were no forecasts of that occurring by the TV mets. Has the system slowed a bit?

    1. Actually things were about on track. These things are not exact. Based on the info from last night and early today, the system is doing just what is expected.

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