Sunday Forecast

45 Comments

1:15PM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)
Discussion…
Generally favorable weather for errands and travel during the next few days leading up to Thanksgiving which is Thursday November 23. A strong cold front is moving offshore now and the door is open to windy, dry, and colder weather through Monday. A plume of lake effect snow will reach western New England tonight and as it breaks up coming over the mountains I cannot rule out a stray snow flurry making it a little further east into the WHW forecast area. Still looking for slight temperature moderation Tuesday before the next front flies through on Wednesday, but an area of moisture to the south will mean that some of this may be drawn northeastward by the front. However I think most of this will remain south and east of the region, getting push back to the southeast later Wednesday and setting up a dry Thanksgiving. But with this area not too far away some high cloudiness may continue to fan back up into the region during the holiday.
Detailed forecast…
THIS AFTERNOON: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures falling into the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated snow showers north central MA and southern NH. Highs 36-43. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain or rain showers morning. Clearing afternoon.Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s but may fall during the afternoon.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
Low pressure is expected to pass south of the region Friday November 24 (Black Friday) with some cloudiness but precipitation should stay to the south. Fair weather over the weekend November 25-26 with no more than a stray rain/snow shower on a cold front which before it will be a breezy and slightly milder Saturday and and after it windy and colder Sunday. A storm may be nearby or over the region November 27-28 which may start as a mix but be mainly rain. Low confidence on this.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
A more zonal pattern returns with a fair and chilly end to the month and then some unsettled weather and moderation in the first few days of December.

45 thoughts on “Sunday Forecast”

    1. I saw a nice bright blue/white one on Friday night. Larger in size and traveling a different direction from the Leonids.

    2. Great photo, Joshua. I’m afraid that I have to disagree it could be a meteor

      I’m fairly certain it is Santa and his eight and Rudolph guys on a trial run 🙂

  8. Thank you TK! The weather was perfect for the parade yesterday. Had a bit of a snafu when the float that carries the Channel 5 morning crew forgot to stop for them at the side road where they board. Thankfully a police officer was able to get the float driver’s attention but poor Cindy Fitzgibbon had to hobble to the float as she recently had ankle surgery. She was a trooper though. Here is a picture.

    https://i.imgur.com/pxcydaM.jpg

      1. Not sure where the breakdown was but there was also a parade official walking with that float so clearly a ball was dropped.

  9. Watched the movie, Wind River. I’d recommend it. There is a sadly profound and powerful message that accompanies the movie

  11. Good morning.

    Where’s the beef? Well, it certainly wasn’t cold last night, at least not at my house.
    34 for a low temperature. Big deal. 😀

  12. From Taunton NWS office this morning re; Wednesday

    Noting inverted troughing off the Carolina coast with S-SE
    winds bringing surge of low level moisture up the coast on the
    backside of the high, then gets caught up in the S-SW flow ahead
    of approaching cold front. Models continue to signal weak
    tropical or subtropical low form off the FL coast which will
    ride NE in the low level flow.

    The moisture plume will enhance the precip across eastern areas
    as the low passes E of the 40N/70W benchmark. Showers will move
    into S coastal areas late Tue night with the best QPF amounts
    moving in Wednesday, with the highest amounts forecast along E
    coastal areas on the order of 0.4 to 0.7 inches.

    The cold front pushes through late Wed/Wed evening, with rain
    possibly changing over to snow showers across the E slopes of
    the Berkshires before ending. Not expecting much in the way of
    accumulations there. The colder air works in Wed night as skies
    become mostly clear, though some clouds linger along S coastal
    areas.

    I note that latest GFS only grazes us.
    0Z Euro wants to provide us with about 1 inch rain.
    NAMS in between.

    1. I think they are banking too heavily on an ECMWF model which has developed a nasty bias for overdoing QPF at this 2-3 day range. I agree with TK, who has been leaning drier for Wednesday all along. A few showers yes, especially eastern areas. I don’t see a widespread soaking rain though.

  15. This morning started with bright sunshine and a light dusting of snow in Lunenburg – just beautiful. Even now there is a bit of snow in the shaded areas.

  16. First time I believe this year I have seen interior Alaska and interior Northwest Territories running 25F to 35F below zero for temperatures.

    Looks like it may be 1o days to 2 weeks for the atmosphere to reconfigure in order to grab a chunk of it and deliver it into the northeast for more than a 1 or 2 day stay.

  17. This may be a weather related question………or most likely is not. However, curious minds want to know.

    Why do seagulls seem to like Target parking lots? Even the one in Millbury always has guls.

    3. Seagulls generally form “sleeping colonies” They then fly out in different dirrections flying many, miles inland or only a few yards. Over time they find food sources which they become attach too. If they come to a garbage area instead of ocean with fish, they will eat that because they do not know if they will find food else where. Would they prefer the seafood. Yes, but its what ever they see first and that highly depends on where they fly.

  18. Nice dusting of snow this morning in Coventry, CT. Always a bit of a pleasant surprise when lake effect snow showers get this far southeast!

    1. Not much. It has a cold trough over the east with an ocean storm missing out to sea and another storm over Quebec missing to our north. They do not join forces until they are well past us in the Maritimes. We are caught in between with nothing. Interesting setup though that bears watching.

  20. This is the NBC Boston Winter Forecast. Some of you may have seen this already as it was posted on their site over a week ago, but I don’t recall anyone posting it here…

    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/Blizzards-Ice-Storms-Intense-Cold-Is-New-England-in-for-an-Extreme-Winter–456631353.html

    Here’s the summary:

    So, putting it all together, our NBC Boston and necn weather team calls for warmer-than-average temperatures overall this winter, interrupted by a few surges of intense cold.

    Multiple mixed precipitation events — some of the storms intense to extreme — will make for more precipitation than normal, and, particularly as the occasional surges of intense cold depart, the ingredients will be in place for a blizzard or two as the cold/warm clash rages, in a tendency back to warm.

    This adds up to a solid ski and snowmobile season in the North Country, and a messy pattern favorable for slushy travel days in Central New England and big fluctuations in temperature, breeding extra potholes in Southern New England, even if the depth of snow on the ground is more limited than in some years for those southern areas.

    1. So there you have it, Matt Noyes, Tim Kelley and crew are calling for a couple blizzards this year. We’ll see….

      1. That would seem to be the implication as I re-read it. The large storms would be big snow producers up north and snow to ice/rain events in SNE.

        Do you generally agree with what they are saying – above normal temps and a lot of mixed precip events in SNE?

  22. I post my blog throughout the year but typically keep it off of here besides for the winter. Here is my prediction for the 2017/2018 season and poking some fun with the fact that it was so hard, I have a friend in meteorology that takes part in this blog as well. Last year we agreed, this year, we have a somewhat different in opinion, we shall see who wins the bet 😛 So many things are canceling out another. Tell me what you think. https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/

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