Monday Forecast

52 Comments

2:46PM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)
Discussion…
Again no major changes. Some temperature downs (today) and ups (tomorrow), etc. for this period with the most notable weather event being a period of rain favoring southeastern MA and RI Wednesday morning as moisture from the south gets drawn north northeastward ahead of a cold front. High pressure passes south of the region before this with today’s gusty and chilly west northwest wind and stray snow flurries giving way to dry and mild but continued breezy weather Tuesday. By Thanksgiving, we’re back into the chill but with less wind as high pressure moves overhead and hangs on into Friday with fair weather – though Friday’s sky may not be cloud-free due to some moisture to the south.
Detailed forecast…
REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT: Sun, passing clouds, isolated snow flurry far west of Boston. Highs 36-43. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-58. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of rain in the morning, especially RI and southeastern MA. Clearing afternoon. Lows from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s but may fall during the afternoon.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
Weekend November 25-26 is mainly dry except a period of rain showers possible late Saturday or Saturday night with a cold front. Breezy and milder Saturday, breezy and colder Sunday. Still watching for a rain risk Monday November 27 that some models are not seeing as of yet, followed by drier and a brief chill-down followed by moderation. Confidence level still very low on the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
Zonal pattern expected with quick-moving, weaker systems and quick air mass changes.

52 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  1. Matt posted this just before I put up the new forecast. Here’s a repost…

    “I post my blog throughout the year but typically keep it off of here besides for the winter. Here is my prediction for the 2017/2018 season and poking some fun with the fact that it was so hard, I have a friend in meteorology that takes part in this blog as well. Last year we agreed, this year, we have a somewhat different in opinion, we shall see who wins the bet So many things are canceling out another. Tell me what you think.” https://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/

  2. Thank you TK.

    And Matt, looking at your snow totals for the Winter. Just about where I have
    been, although I don’t have my final figures. But you are lock step with my numbers so far. I was actually thinking 37 for Boston while you have 38. Pretty close, I would say. 😀

  4. Thanks TK.

    Here’s the link to the NECN/NBC Boston Winter Forecast that I posted near the end of the last blog for those who didn’t see it:

    https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/Blizzards-Ice-Storms-Intense-Cold-Is-New-England-in-for-an-Extreme-Winter–456631353.html

    The summary: warmer-than-average temperatures and above normal precip overall this winter. Multiple mixed precipitation events for SNE, good snow up north in the ski areas, and a few storms that are “intense to extreme”

    3. I have no idea why the second link works and the first doesn’t. They are exactly the same. Perhaps you could explain Dave!

      2. REALLY WEIRD!!!!

        I just wrote a quick and simple VB program to test this.
        I first set a string variable to each link.
        I then went character by character through each comparing
        and each and every character is the same.
        I then checked to simply see IF they equaled each other.

        Option Compare Database

        Function Test()

        Dim link1 As String
        Dim Link2 As String

        link1 = “https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/Blizzards-Ice-Storms-Intense-Cold-Is-New-England-in-for-an-Extreme-Winter-456631353.html”
        Link2 = “https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/Blizzards-Ice-Storms-Intense-Cold-Is-New-England-in-for-an-Extreme-Winter-456631353.html”

        MsgBox link1 = Link2

        End Function

        The result was TRUE

        So the links TRULY are the same. I thought that there would be
        some sort of hidden character. Nope, at least not that I Can see
        without wasting a ton of time. 😀 😀 😀

        Hey, LIFE is a mystery.

      3. The difference is as follows:
        (1) “…Extreme-Winter%E2%80%93456631353.html”
        (2) “…Extreme-Winter–456631353.html”

        I got these strings not by copying and pasting the URL as text but by using “Copy Link Location” in my browser. Perhaps the first one passed through a program like Word which had its way with it.

      1. Saw that as well. Looks like a preview of what we might have to come this winter….storm track right over us and snow in NNE.

        1. yes, But, with deep snow packbto north, i see 2 things that could happen:
          1 the storm track occasionally moves a little more tobtge south allowing for posdible snowy coastals.
          2. the same deep pack and blocking, may force development just south of us.
          may be snowier than 1st thougjt.

  10. Barry calling for 45-55 inches Boston, 75 inches Central MA, and 30-45 inches SE Mass with 15-30 inches Cape. Says his gut says his numbers are too conservative…

  11. Here’s the WBZ Winter Forecast posted earlier today by Eric Fisher:

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/11/20/winter-weather-forecast-wbz-tv-boston-eric-fisher/

    Eric’s total for Boston is around 40″, less than Barry’s.

    To summarize:

    1. More front loaded winter with colder start, warmer finish.
    2. Storm tracks over us, more potential for ice storms
    3. Not many big coastal storms this year.
    4. Less amplified pattern with chunks of cold breaking off from Canada.
    5. Potential for more clippers/light to moderate snow events than past seasons
    6. Great snow winter for NNE
    7. Most recent analog winter 2007-2008

    Overall a forecast not too dissimilar from NECN’s.

    Wonder what Barry is seeing that makes him think more snow further south?

    1. My educated guess: Barry feels there may be more blocking that could add a significant snowfall or 2 to areas further south.

      1. I was thinking about just that the last few days, even though
        I posted that I was leaning lower amounts. I am confused to
        say the least.

        One thing we cannot ignore and that is a deeper than normal snow pack over the border into Canada. That place colder air pretty close to us. I could see some occasions when that would spill South and give us Frozen precipitation. Figuring out how much is the big issue.

        I have 10 more days to come up with a number(s). 😀

  12. Mixed signals for sure this winter. It could go either way and one big storm could be the difference between an average snow winter and a winter well above average.

    On thing that appears likely is that there will be plenty of cold air nearby with deep snow pack in Canada and Siberia, as Dave said. And we have a potentially active La Nina storm track. If we could get some good -NAO setups at opportune times, we could have an interesting stretch or two this winter that could really make the difference for a good snow year.

    Recall what happened in Jan 2011 in a weak La Nina pattern with extended -NAO. It was a 6 week snow blitz. Granted there were other factors in play that winter.

    1. yup. intetesting Winter in store.
      debating with myself whether tonjust podt my numbers or putting domething elaborate together like Matt did. I will probaby opt for something in the middle.

      btw, I think you meant Jan 2014, as winter of 2011-2012 netted about 9 ibches or so for boston.

      1. damn mobile keyboard. at Frugal Fannies with the Mrs. at least they have wi fi here. will be watching/ listening to mudicc videos.

      2. No, I meant January 2011 (winter of 2010-2011). That was the winter we had the 6 week snow blitz between Christmas and the first week of February. Developed a real huge snowpack. Then we had virtually nothing from the second week of February on.

    2. The difference this time is that just about everything else is not the same except the La Nina.

      2010-2011 is not an analog winter for this one upcoming.

  13. I see BB is in for above average snow, looking at past La Ninia winters I have to agree that we should have above average snows.

    TK I believe eluded to keeping an eye on temps from Nov 7-21 and they were pretty below normal so that combined with La Ninia and the cold and snow already building in Canada also leaves me with higher totals region wide.

  16. And another winter forecast just issued today from The Weather Network :

    https://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/us-weather/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast-next-three-months-of-weather-temperature-precipitation/89579/

    Similar to the other forecasts mentioned for the Northeast:

    This region is expected to see periods of high impact winter weather with colder than normal temperatures and an active storm track which should bring above average snowfall to much of the region. There is also a heightened threat for freezing rain, especially across interior New England.

    However, the Northeast also has the potential to see extended periods of mild temperatures (an extended thaw) during the winter, helping to offset the periods of cold weather. Winter temperatures are expected to tip to the warm side of normal close to the Eastern Seaboard due to warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and a more inland storm track should which will often draw milder air into this region.

  17. My 2017 Snow Predictions which I just posted to the Contest page:

    Boston MA 43″
    Worcester MA 64″
    Providence RI 34″
    Hartford CT 46″
    Concord NH 62″
    Burlington VT 95″
    Portland ME 62″

    I am going pretty much with the averages for southern and central New England with the expectation of many mix to ice/rain storms, several smaller clipper storms, and 1 or 2 larger coastal storms. For NNE, I went about 15″ above average for Burlington where it looks like snow will really add up from many clippers and larger storms that track just southeast over central and southern New England.

    I think if I bust, I bust low because I could see that storm track shifting south for awhile depending on the NAO, giving us several significant snow events. It only takes a couple large ones to tip the scales to an above or even well above average winter.

  18. La Nina winters with negative PDO are often less snowy than normal.

    But those are not the only factors…

    I’m still working on my forecast which as I do it is somewhere between Barry’s & Eric’s at this point.

  19. Speaking of… I was talking to a colleague last night and said if I had to use a winter as an analog from recent times it’s 2007-2008 and then Ch 4 goes and mentions the same winter. 😉

      1. Right. But that does not mean I’m forecasting 51.2 for Logan. It’s just a general idea. The snowiest month was December which was well above normal with 27 inches, February had 15, January had 8, and March had 1. Front-end loaded winter. So, not really about the exact #’s but the general set-up.

  22. Don’t worry about the storm depicted on the GFS at the end of the first week of December. The runs will change so many times between now and then and what happens probably won’t be much like any of them.

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