Wednesday Forecast

62 Comments

7:47AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 22-26)
Discussion…
Well so much for my “no travel trouble” a few days ago regarding today. Sometimes they just don’t work out so well. What I thought would be an area of rain largely offshore and a front with very little precipitation on it turns out to be that front helping to squeeze the atmosphere as a tongue of tropical moisture moves northward into southeastern New England on this day before Thanksgiving, resulting in widespread rain. So travel will be slow around the area today, though improvement will arrive at the end of the day and we’re still looking at a dry but chilly Thanksgiving Day as high pressure moves in. This will hang on through Friday as it stands now though some cloudiness is still expected as it starts to warm, first aloft, then at the surface, which will be much more notable by Saturday as we will be in the southwesterly air flow ahead of a cold front. This front will come through Saturday night when a few rain showers may occur. And as cold air flows in and an upper disturbance crosses the region Sunday a few snow showers may occur.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Overcast with rain and embedded downpours and thunder especially southeastern MA and RI, diminishing toward dusk when clouds may break. Highs 46-53. Wind light S to SW becoming NW and increasing to 10-20 MPH late day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Watch for patchy ice where the ground does not dry. Lows 25-31. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing toward dawn.
THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind light W.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-30. Wind light W.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late day or evening. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Temperatures fall to the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 27-DECEMBER 1)
The tough that I thought may ignite a storm early in this period should be progressive enough to allow high pressure to move in with dry and cool weather November 27 and a milder November 28 ahead of the next cold front, which may bring a little bit of unsettled weather on November 29 or 30 with fair weather returning as December arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 2-6)
Indications are for a progressive pattern, weak systems, and a couple air mass changes. Will work on the details as the days get closer.

62 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Tis raining for sure.

    0.15 at my house so far and it is mounting quite rapidly.

    Here is a radarscope screen shot of the NYC radar a couple of minutes ago.
    Still plenty of rain to go through, even if the heaviest band is in SE MA.

    https://imgur.com/a/Iz9wj

  3. Thanks TK.

    With the main low center with this system well to our south off the Outer Banks, trough/front approaching from the west, and SNE with strong right entrance jet positioning… to me this almost has the feel of a Predecessor Rain Event (PRE). Not quite the same thing, as we typically associate those only with tropical cyclones. But the idea is similar. The southern stream low is passing well, well outside the benchmark. This rain is not directly associated with it, nor with the approaching front. Instead it’s caused by the tropical moisture transport due to the combination of the two. The same thing can happen with recurving hurricanes.

  4. Thanks TK !

    Its raining fairly heavily here and yet, we are north of that band down around the Cape Cod Bridges. Those towns sitting under that band must be seeing impressive rainfall amounts.

      1. First time in my academic life (student or teacher) that I have today off! It has always been a half-day.

        1. Good for you! I know Plymouth is off today too. Also think a lot of parents chose to keep their kids home. Not this mean Mama! 🙂

    3. Wow…..Nice that you have today off

      My kids always stayed home day before to help cook. They now do the same with their children. It is a fun tradition.

      1. Now when I check again, it is giving me a radar down for
        maintenance message. Been that way for 2 weeks.

        SOMETHING is up with that site, no doubt about it.

        1. HMMM

          It may be browser settings.

          I just tried to take an image of the radar down for maintenance message. I opened it in a new browser
          window and the regular display appeared.

          Funny, I have been seeing this at home and at work.

          Trying mobile now.

          Seems to be working fine on my mobile device.

          1. Just tried opening it in Explorer and the same thing (“Radar Down for Maintenance”) happens there as it does in Chrome. Let me know if you figure something out.

            1. I think they ARE experiencing intermittant problems.

              I see on my RadarScope APP on my mobile
              device that it is DOWN. They display
              clearly indicates that it is 24 minutes old.

                1. I am far from an expert, but I like RadarUS. I have the app on my devices. It is the one I use most often.

                  In some rare instances, if there is a threat that is discussed here and I have trouble seeing on RadarUS, I switch to RadarScope.

  7. WxWatcher – this is basically a progressive PRE, or a PRO-PRE, which would be the apPROPRIate way to describe it. 😉

    3. hehehe – or in the case of someone who has been binge watching NCIS since the start of summer, a ProBIE

      PS – credit for binge watching goes to North’s wife, Ivy!!!

  10. 0.56 inch so far at home. There is still some rain to come, but it doesn’t look like
    all that much left. Another tenth or 2, I suppose.

  11. Thank you, TK

    0.49 in Sutton. All on the box that UPS left by the garage door NOT in a plastic bag. This is a new trick…..more Fedex than UPS but I’m now calling every time.

  12. Thank you, TK.

    Don’t worry about the forecast. You’re accurate 99% of the time.

    I’m glad I did not drive to Providence. Took the commuter rail. Driving would have been tough. It’s raining steadily here.

  13. Just found this note on the NWS-BOX website.
    KBOX RADAR OUT OF SERVICE

    KBOX RADAR IS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. MAINTENANCE
    PERSONNEL ARE INVESTIGATING THE PROBLEM. ESTIMATED RETURN TO SERVICE
    WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.

    WE REGRET ANY INCONVENIENCE.

  14. I will be working on my winter forecast to completion in the next few days. As I have indicated, all factors / indices short & long term have been taken into account, and a fair amount of weight has been given to the weather pattern during the course of November (anticipating the last few days in advance).

    I have indicated an initial feeling of cold with most snow chances during the first 1/3 or 1/2 of the season and a relaxation of the pattern thereafter. This has not changed. Details to come.

    I saw that Dr. Cohen’s model predicts 64 inches for Boston this winter. We also know that Barry’s feeling is to go above normal while Eric’s is to go near or a bit below. It’s fair to say there is a higher level of uncertainty than average going into this winter. For me, this is the hardest forecast of the last 5. In fact I thought the last 3 were relatively easy forecasts. I blew the one before that. Cohen has expressed lower than average confidence this season.

      1. This can so easily be above or below on snow. I’m about as stumped as I have ever been. But something is happening to make me start to lean one particular way.

        1. It would figure for sure that you would be leaning
          Lower rather than higher. It’s probably the lack of a deeper trough for your 11/26 event. So much so, that it pissed you off and will cause you to lower you snow
          totals. 😀 😀 😀

          Probably by as much as 25%.

  15. Still raining here as the rain hung in there certainly longer than I expected.
    Productive rain at that. 0.94 inches here as it finally begins to unwind. Will it make
    1 inch? Don’t think so. Looks to quit before that, but we shall see.

    Harvey predicted “around” an inch, so not too bad at all.

      1. He clearly stated around an inch and then “backtracked” a bit to say what you stated.

        Either way, he was right on it. 😀

        1. I don’t doubt it. They are also on so many times who knows which particular broadcast we see and if it was the same… 😉

    1. Again, IF this amount is significantly higher than surrounding areas, I will
      be forced to re-calibrate my rain gauge.

  22. I do not see any meaningful snow storms yet in the near future. We will have to hope for the middle of December or later. Its just to progressive for any meaningful snowfall. then again, I feel like models might not pick up on our opportunities this winter that well. maybe pop up 1 or 2 times then disappear and then 2 or 3 days before pop up.

    1. Don’t be surprised if the first snowstorm is a surprise, in which case it won’t be a surprise. 😉

      1. I love surprises, especially surprise snow storms!!! Absolutely
        LOVE them. So, Please KEEP talking like this. 😀

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