Friday Forecast

33 Comments

10:00AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 24-28)
High pressure retains control today then slips offshore Saturday with a warming trend. A cold front will cross the region Saturday night bringing a few rain showers to the region, and a weak disturbance will follow this Sunday with a second disturbance crossing the region Sunday night, both with a risk of snow showers as colder air will have arrived. The cycle repeats again as high pressure is in control Monday, which will be fair and chilly, then slips to the south Tuesday which will see a warm-up.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny start. Mostly cloudy finish. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures fall into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to middle 40s.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
Mainly dry with a mild November 29 and colder November 30. Rain or snow showers about December 1 then a fair and colder first weekend of December, based on current timing in this continued fast-flowing pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Fast-flowing pattern expected to continue and difficult to time northern jet stream energy and weak but occasional southern stream energy. Expect frequent changes in the weather but at the moment not seeing an indication of any major storminess.

33 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

        1. Barry & I were chatting about how patience was essential this time. Of course at the station they didn’t have a choice since the forecast had to be done by a certain time due to a scheduled segment about it…

    1. The MJO was in a very weak state and within the circle in the middle. limiting its effects, its now heading out of that phase and going into zones 3 and possibly 4 for the next few weeks.

  4. TK, you said YES in last blob. Is that to mean YES there is hope if one loves
    snow? In other words, you at least somewhat agree with Ryan Hanrahan’s post?

    1. Today: Helping my mom take down her Thanksgiving decorations (yup, she has a lot), removing corn stalks etc. outside, setting a plan with Nate for going forward from here, going out to dinner for my daughter’s upcoming bday, then going to visit a friend tonight.

      Tomorrow: Doing all the remaining lights and outside decorations in the relative mild air. We have a festival in Woburn in the late afternoon / evening for the lighting of the common. I’ll be at that. Then a small party for the upcoming bday.

      Sunday through Thursday: All out decorating for Christmas, 99% of it in my mom’s part of the house. Nate and I are going to work together on all of it!

      1. Sounds perfect. We are getting tree. I found mine first so am
        Sitting by fire

        Tomorrow grands pick an ornament for the tree on Sutton common in Mac’s memory

        I did some Christmas already and will spread rest out.

        Enjoy. Hi to your mom❤️

  6. Just to add a little bit about the MJO: As stated above, it was weak for some time. It did have a couple weeks back in October where it strengthened and played a role in solidifying our warm pattern. That particular pattern was, by many, wrongly attributed to climate change ONLY, when if that was a factor at all it was very minor. All the major atmospheric indices were in cahoots for that pattern. Anyway, it went quiet for a while and is now in wake-up mode again. I’m not looking for it to come roaring to full life here, but larger enough in scope to be a factor. I am depending on this index traveling from phase 6 through 8 between December 10 and the end of the year. This should have an impact on turning the pattern cold in a little more persistent fashion, and send several disturbances over or south of the region, and perhaps one larger event infused with southern stream energy. Of course it’s far too early for details, but the general idea would be to turn the pattern colder and snowier for a while. This is the shift I’d been referencing with my “early and often” comment. FAR from a lock here – but the signs are starting to show up.

        1. Don’t go overboard. Even if I’m right and this thing is maximum potential we won’t be seeing February 2015 in December 2017. 😉

  7. I placed this on the contest page and I purposely submitted before TK’s forecast:

    Without going into details, here is my submission for the 2017-2018 Snowfall contest:

    Boston MA 42.4
    Worcester MA 58.7
    Providence RI 27.3
    Hartford CT 36.5
    Concord NH 81.5
    Burlington VT 76.4
    Portland ME 72.7

            1. Just looking for dec 9ish

              Will be Macs and my 39th anniversary….same day of week. Poured rain all day and then a foot or more of heavy snow, including thunder snow, at night. I am ready for a storm then.

      1. It’s why I just don’t put much stock in that model. Upgrade has long proven itself to have not remotely fixed anything regarding that tendency.

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