Saturday Forecast

43 Comments

8:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 25-29)
As we head down November’s home stretch we will see the fast-flowing weather pattern continue. The temperature warm-up that started yesterday will peak today and then get shut down by a cold front that comes through tonight with no more than a passing rain shower. Behind it, however, will be a shot of cold air for Sunday and Monday. There may be a few snow showers around on Sunday, especially late, as a disturbance passes by. A moderation arrives for Tuesday and Wednesday but the next cold front is due sometime on Wednesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny start. Mostly cloudy finish. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Temperatures fall into the 40s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers, especially late. Temperatures fall 40s to 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-28. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the middle 50s to lower 60s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 30-DECEMBER 4)
A fair final day of November expected then a brief period of wet weather to start December as another front comes through. Currently, the December 2-4 period is expected to be dry but may have to watch the evolution of a storm offshore from a trough cut off from the main jet stream. There are indications of this on reliable guidance and cannot discount it completely.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 5-9)
A little uncertain as the end of the previous period is also uncertain. For now expecting a departure of any cut off system and a fast-flowing pattern for the balance of this period with quick weather changes and no major storminess.

43 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

    2. It was fab. My mom was getting over a nasty little bug and was hosting us, but she had an immense amount of help, a lot of it from my brother.

      We had 17 total people at dinner. And a nice win for our football team. Great day. 🙂

  5. I am holding out until the last possible moment on this winter forecast…

    I need 2 more ECMWF regular runs and one more examination of the weeklies and monthlies.

    1. If I’ve been hearing you and others correctly, I get the idea the overall feeling is that a majority of snow is expected in the front half of the winter. I get that winter astronomically starts Dec 21 …. Feels like that’s a tight window if things aren’t going to start progressing towards snow threats til Dec 8 thru 10th.

      1. What’s a Winter Season? 90 days or so or “about” 13 weeks.
        Front 1/2 implies “about” 6 weeks give or take.

        We could pile up a whole season’s snowfall in 6 weeks as we
        have witnessed before.

        So, I guess I am saying, what do you mean tight window?
        I don’t see it as so whatsoever. 😀

        1. I agree with that 6 week idea.

          If the pattern takes longer to set in, then that’s one way to shorten the window.

          For my area in marshfield, if the snow is coming early, then we’ll have a very low seasonal total while the ocean is relatively mild. We get are best snow in later January thru early March with the colder airmasses and colder water temps.

          Perhaps that’s why I’m viewing it as a tight window.

  8. Thanks TK!

    Warm day out there today, and the pattern itself is making a change to warmer. Next two weeks average 3-6F above normal, even with a couple cool days to start this coming week. That, after this seemingly cold first 25 days of November averaged a meager 1-2F below normal. Cold ain’t what it used to be. Definitely eyeing 12/10-12/20 though. Just general pattern recognition at this point, but that should be a window for snow.

  10. Tk you had mentioned watching a storm down the road is it next Friday / Saturday as wankum has a warm Nor E with soaking rains . Just what I need on a weekend where every weekend now is so critical

        1. The last few years my outside decorating day was COLD. Ironically this month has been rather chilly and my outside day was MILD. I liked it.

  12. From Judah Cohen this morning.

    Ejecting Southwestern US shortwave predicted in the ECMWF model is first major #winter #storm potential in the Eastern US end of first week of December, especially if it phases with northern stream.

    1. And this…..

      GFS still predicting a major upward pulse of energy from the troposphere to the stratosphere second week of December. This is likely to disrupt with #PolarVortex with long term implications for our weather. Interesting blog tomorrow! bit.ly/1jXiL4K

      1. First signs of that implied switch to the pattern that can deliver snow events (after December 10).

    2. Really? IF this is what he means, that is NOT
      a snow producer for SNE.

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017112606/gfs_mslpa_us_41.png

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017112606/gfs_z500a_us_41.png

      Unless it ran into some sort of block which is not apparent on this run. OR
      it develops a coastal, which even if it did, looks to little too late.

      AND it is NOT running into any cold air to speak of

      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017112606/gfs_T2m_us_41.png

      Let’s see what the 12Z run shows us.

      1. I am so sorry, I honestly thought that I had the EURO pulled up an it turns out I had the GFS. The GFS version clearly NOT
        snow for SNE, however, the EURO does paint a different story.

        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017112600/ecmwf_mslpa_us_11.png

        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017112600/ecmwf_z500aNorm_us_11.png

        https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017112600/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

        Although the surface looks interesting, I still do NOT like
        the 500mb configuration on this.

        Still, let’s see what the 12Z run shows us.

  13. According to Barry, this month will not end up as much below normal as originally thought. With at least one more day this week above normal it will be interesting if November 2017 ends up right at normal and the implications of the upcoming winter ahead.

    1. This is why Barry and I wanted to wait. Of course, Barry couldn’t wait because the station needed a forecast for the on-air segment. 🙂

        1. Based on the November pattern only, yes. But I have to take into account things that I can see in the future that have shifted slightly since Barry and I talked. There are always adjustments to be made in prediction.

  16. 12z guidance is generally more progressive on the storm threat at the end of the coming week. It goes without saying in either case that we are far from being able to detail that one, other than it will highly likely be warm enough to not have any snow involved in southern New England.

Comments are closed.