Wednesday Forecast

37 Comments

9:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 29-DECEMBER 3)
No. It didn’t rain overnight. The moisture you saw on the ground condensed there out of the air. This is the same process as when you see the outside of a glass drip with water when there is a cold drink in it. That chills the surface of the glass and then moisture in the relatively warm room air condenses onto the cold glass. The ground acted as the cold glass, condensing the moisture of the warming air mass. Now to the coming weather… A cold front pushes through the region today but the air behind it is not all that cold, so we still get a mild day today, albeit with a gusty breeze. It will chill down tonight and be a cooler day on Thursday as a narrow area of high pressure dominates. Then the progressive nature of the pattern pushes another front through the region parented by low pressure passing north of the region early Friday. This front will have more moisture to work with it than the one currently moving through, and will produce rain showers. The weekend looks cool and mainly dry. A weak disturbance will come through early Sunday with some cloudiness and no more than a touch of light rain and/or snow, but this energy will be feeding an offshore storm that will not impact the region other than some increased surf along the coastline early in the coming week.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Variably cloudy morning. More sun afternoon. Highs 52-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-27. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Sunshine much of the day, limited late as clouds advance. Highs 40-46. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Rain showers possible after midnight. Lows 34-40 early then rising back into the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain showers in the morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 46-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a slight risk of very light rain/snow morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 4-8)
Back to milder at the start of this period and then mid period some unsettled weather marks the first hint at a coming pattern change. It will not happen all at once but this unsettled weather should be followed by a push of colder air to end this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 9-13)
A blocking pattern in the atmosphere will change the weather pattern during this period. Here we should see a brief warm-up early period, then another round of unsettled weather with colder air returning in a stronger push by the very end of the period. A little difficult to time things and detail them so far out, so we will continue to refine.

37 thoughts on “Wednesday Forecast”

  2. Thank you, TK.

    Fascinating comment re rain last night. I was shocked to see the edges of the walkway and driveway wet while middles were basically dry. I first had to wonder if our irrigation system had gone off but it is drained and shut down. Now I know the explanation. Thanks again!

  3. TK – How does 12/15-12/25 fit for us being finally settled into the cold & snow pattern?

    About what date will we see actual serious snow on the ground regionwide?

    One caveat that JR said on air recently was that cold doesn’t always automatically mean snow. I hope we don’t end up with wasted cold.

    1. Can’t give you a date. And no it does not automatically mean snow. It means better opportunities for it though.

      We also may not stay in the cold the entire time. I think we’re going to reload once if not twice.

  5. Thanks TK
    Philip I hope this isn’t wasted cold either. If were going to have the cold give me at least one snowfall.

  6. Of the 3 teleconnections : AO, PNA and NAO and looking at the Dec 1 thru 15 projections as of this morning …

    The projected phase of the PNA looks helpful. It is forecast to become positive, which generally implies a western ridge and an eastern trof.

    The AO looks quite negative especially around the 10th, but then by the 15th, there is quite a spread in the projection between a negative and neutral phase by the 15th.

    The NAO looks to be rather neutral at this point, however by the 15th, the forecasted projection has a lot of spread between a moderately positive and moderately negative phase.

    So ….. I hypothesize that the negative AO, leading to an amplified jet stream, in combination with the positive PNA, will be most responsible for carving out a decent trof by mid month. The neutral NAO seems to allow for occasional lifting of that trof.
    It probably depends where the trof sets up, is it positive or negative tilt and how much staying power to the north of us the cold has that will define the mid to late December time frame.

    1. That is pretty much exactly what the 12z GFS is showing from about hour 190 on. Big trough digging down over the eastern two thirds of the country, with several storm opportunities and waves ride along the base of it and then trying to come up the eastern seaboard. Indeed, placement will be everything for us.

    2. We plunge in, then the pattern reloads. I’m not sure about the timing on the GFS but it has the right idea. And forget tracking surface features beyond 3 days…

      1. This is the best advice of all. However, it doesn’t hurt to watch, if nothing else other than to see how mightily the models struggle
        with the changing atmosphere.

  7. I fully realize that this is 10 DAYS OUT, however, the 12Z Euro is throwing us
    a tease. Not relying on the end of a run, but just reporting what it shows:

    Here is the surface with precipitation, 500mb and 300mb. Looks pretty interesting,
    indeed. Will it happen? Likely not, but something to keep an eye on for now.

    https://imgur.com/a/Xxvra

    1. That’s a nice looking trough. If anything, it may take the system out
      just South and East of us to matter much. However, there is plenty of time
      for that to resolve OR dissolve. 😀

  8. Tied up in meetings all day. I am left exhausted….

    I HATE MEETINGS()!@#&!@&#*(!@*(#!*(@&#*(!&@(*#&!*(@#&*!&(

  9. Individual surface features aside, the look on the models from about 190 hours (12/8) on is making me salivate 🙂

    1. Let us hope (well for us snow lovers) that something materializes.
      Even snow haters “usually” don’t mind some snow just before Christmas
      for a white Christmas.

  10. The snow haters I find don’t complain about snow until after New Year’s.
    I hate wasted cold air so I hope we don’t get skunked.

  11. We had an exciting frontal passage here in Plymouth, NH around 12:30 today. Lots of rain squalls up here in part due to the terrain. Temperature spiked about 10 degrees in under an hour ahead of the front up to the low 50s, and fell equally as much and as fast behind it. In addition, we were treated to a rainbow to our north, which is very unusual at that time of day and really can only happen this time of year due to the low Sun angle.

  12. GFS still too fast.

    ECMWF starting to get timing better.

    We get a tease of cold around December 6-7, maybe 8, but the jet stream is going to buckle back and we’ll moderate over that weekend with probably a rain (mountain snow) event assuming the larger piece of energy is reasonably correctly timed.

    It is AFTER December 10 when the pattern will be fully changed. I am not ready to really discuss how long I think that change will be. But don’t infer that as going to a warm pattern. We haven’t been in a warm pattern anyway. We’re just going to a colder one toward mid December. We need to wait nearly 2 weeks for this, but the way media is talking, it’s on the doorstep. Nope.

      1. I just remembered, TK did post to me that November 2014 had a fair amount of snow for the month…and of course we all know what happened later. 😉

        2014-15 = 110.6″

  15. I saw on Ch. 7 this morning that November will end up -0.1 for the month. Did that 61 high yesterday cause that? Or did I misread that graphic?

  16. TK – Do you know what a “snowroller” is? Danielle showed a photo of some in Vermont.

    Pretty cool to say the least. 🙂

    1. I have not heard that term in decades. My dad told us about them although I don’t recall seeing any. I thought it was snow the wind picked up and made into a rolling snowball. Sort of like making a snowman. I saw a pic on FB yesterday that must be what you are talking about. I didn’t have time to read so will be interested in TKs comment

    2. Yes. I have actually seen a bunch of those some number of years ago on a drive through central MA in an open field. They are more rare around here due to the limited open space, versus somewhere like the Plains, but as Danielle’s display showed, we do get them in this area under the right conditions.

  17. Good morning.

    I continue to watch the medium range global models.
    Thinks are beginning to look interesting, but still too far out
    to know what will or will not happen.

    Some snow chances “appear” to be on the horizon, but we won’t know for sure for
    some time yet.

  18. To me do we get any meaningful snow when we flip the pattern and does this having stay power or will it be a cameo? If it is a cameo I hope there is one good snowfall and its not wasted cold.

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