Friday Forecast

87 Comments

7:37AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 1-5)
As December begins, no real changes are being made to the previous forecast, other than to speed up the weekend disturbance and remove precipitation from the forecast.
Detailed forecast…
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 46-52. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 21-27. Wind light NW.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 42-48. Wind light N to NE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 30-36. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Decreasing clouds. Highs 40-46. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 40s to lower 50s.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs from the upper 40s to middle 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 6-10)
Wet weather December 6 marks the end of a warm-up and it turns colder behind this for December 7-8 before a slight moderation on the weekend of December 9-10. A couple more unsettled periods of weather, favoring rain or mix, during the remainder of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 11-15)
Blocking will strengthen and we see a stronger push of colder weather during this period, along with increased risk of 1 or 2 events that will include snow. Too early for details.

87 thoughts on “Friday Forecast”

  1. Thanks TK
    I saw a comment about ” 1960 end up being white? Since it was long before global warming, I would think so.” I would say that climate changed started with the industrial revolution when people started burn coal, oil We have records in which the increasing carbon was already effecting the temperature in the late 60s and 70s. It happened at a rather exponential rate once we were in the 60s and 70s.

  2. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Tk, being the Christmas season now and thoughts of gifts are in the air,
    I was wondering if you might offer a selection of Meteorological books?

    This is somewhat selfish as I wish to give my wish list to my family as they
    never know what to get for me. 😀 However, not a bad idea for all here.

    Personally, I am looking for some good Text books (I lean towards forecasting) and not just beginner level. I think I could handle intermediate and I would even look at advanced texts. Math doesn’t scare me. For some, they may be looking for informational books and not text books. Perhaps some books for the budding weather enthusiast.

    Anyway, just a thought I had on the way into the office today.

    Many thanks

  5. Thanks TK.

    Meteorological fall is in the books. Significantly warmer than normal, led by a historically warm October. Near normal rainfall after a wet start but a dry November. Highlight of the three month period for me definitely would be the pre-Halloween storm, one of our more impactful weather events of this decade. Hurricane season has wrapped up as well; yet another in which New England emerged totally unscathed, though the 10/30 storm was a bit of a preview of what impacts from a low end hurricane may look like.

    On we go to winter… December is poised for a warm opening week. As we’ve been looking at, it goes colder beyond then, though the core of the cold should be to our west. And then we’ll just have to wait and see about any storminess. Will be a much different December pattern than we’ve seen lately though, once we get the opening warmth out of the way.

  7. We can’t just group decades into pre-warming and during-warming. It doesn’t work like that. Even if you see a large scale trend in climate (which I’m not debating) you can go back and find other decades that were snow-deficient, or snow-abundant. There are more causes of such things, and little things, like white Christmases or not, than just long term climate. We may be in a long term warming period, but Boston has just experienced its snowiest 10 year period since record keeping began. So correlating lack of snow, or even excessive snow, exclusively to long term climate is not painting the entire picture.

    1. I was not relating snow at all, we could actually have more extremes as it worsens which includes years in which we have a bunch of snow. Or near no snow at all. to years in which we get all our snow within a month etc etc. Years in which we average well above normal temperatures but get a bunch of snow/ice and years where we get bitterly cold and not much snow.

  8. JP Dave I may have a few book suggestions. I have to look some stuff over in the next 3 days as I reorganized my den / weather office. 😉

    1. There has never been a solid snow cover from Stockbridge to Boston on December 1 since record keeping began.

    1. And the 12Z Euro Snow map for the entire 10 day run: (Custom proprietary algorithm that uses thermal profiles, so I assume it is at least similar to
      the Kuchera method. At least it is not straight 10:1)

      https://imgur.com/a/QrnUV

  12. All signs I’m seeing are pointing to a extended periord of snow and cold through out New England. I feel once the snow starts to fall it will continue for a several week periord of time. Once the snow covers the ground next week you might not see the grass until February. White Christmas….. you bet!

    IWS

    1. I was watching for and reading all signs on the way into work.
      I didn’t see anything that indicated an extended period of snow and cold.

    2. Calling a white Christmas on December 1 as a “you bet” is a BOLD call if this includes any part of southeastern New England. 🙂

    1. If I am reading this properly, it looks to slip into Phase 6 around 12/8 or so
      and meander between 5 & 6 Before staying in 6 for a while.

      2. Looks like after 12/12 (nice, eh) it stays in Phase 6 for some time.
        We shall see. Could get interesting.

  16. Yahoo weather for Boston.

    Looks like a change on 12/7. 😀

    Madden Julian Oscillation

    But this is the “phase 1” push. Note it is cooler, but not really COLD.
    Not in my humble opinion anyway. 😀

  17. ACE, this one is for you. I researched some more on the MJO.
    Above, I would have been more correct if I had said Phase 7 & 8 and NOT 6 & 7.
    It can go either way with Phase 6, but 6 is much better than 4 or 5.

    Here is an excerpt:

    The researchers relied on several sources of information, including data on the position of the MJO, described in terms of a phase number ranging from 1 to 8; snowfall data for eight stations obtained from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI); and a new dataset identifying the tracks of extra-tropical cyclone (ETC) centers, developed by scientists at NCEI, including CICS-NC’s Kenneth Kunkel and Ronnie Leeper.

    The team discovered a significant relationship between the MJO, the frequency of nor’easter storms (known to produce heavy snowfall in the Northeast), and the probability of snowfall events at most of the stations included in the study. When the MJO is in positions (phases) 7, 8, and 1, chances of snowfall are increased. Chances of snowfall are decreased for MJO phases 4 and 5. In the winter of 2015, more than 90% of the Logan Airport snowfall fell during phases 7 and 8 of the MJO index.

    While other factors affect whether heavy snowfall events actually occur, these results suggest that the MJO, which tends to be predictable on timescales of about month, may be a useful tool for predicting periods of higher and lower risk for heavy snowfall events in New England.

  18. Down the road outlook from NWS for Late Next week:

    Late week into the weekend…
    Although cooler air will begin settling to the E with the front
    shifting offshore, there are two issues to watch. The airmass,
    although cool is moderated by mainly bare ground as mentioned
    previously, and the deep cold dome remains W. Therefore,
    although below normal, temps should only be slightly cooler. The
    other, is how close the front hangs offshore, as there are
    still impulses which could trigger an ocean wave toward the
    weekend, with once again a potential for mixed precipitation. At
    this time ensemble members are as far west as an inside runner,
    to as far east as a complete miss for S New England. Something
    to watch.

    2. The 6th will be a rain event. And I believe if we have a wave come through on the 8th or 9th that will be mainly rain also.

            1. Hmmm. Belmont had a ton. Boston had thunder snow. We watched from the Hyatt overlooking the Charles in Cambridge.

  23. According to Pete on NBC Boston, once the cold arrives, the pattern will be QUITE active and that odds now favor a WHITE Christmas! 😀

    2. When I saw him at 5:30 he was not confident on even the cold arriving “when advertised” and how things would line up… In other words he hinted that the hype may have been too much too soon.

      The hint by him is that the cold may not blast in here all at once, but more slowly “shift” in.

        1. Many times that is how it changes. I still don’t think it’s all at once in this case either.

  24. Courtesy SAK, who maintains most excellent climate records for the city of Lowell MA…

    November was 18.4 degrees colder than October. This is the largest 1 month drop since the 21.6 degree drop from November to December, 1989, and 10th largest one month drop since records start in 1889.

  25. Channel 4 produced and aired this wonderful story on Evan, a young man in my last period class. I thought I would share it with you:

    http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/12/01/middleboro-cheerleader-down-syndrome-inspires-school/

    Off to Gillette first thing tomorrow to cheer the Sachems onto a state championship!
    Many of the businesses in town have signs up wishing the boys luck. First Super Bowl appearance for Middleboro in 34 years!

    Quite a week at our school!

  26. Speaking of school, hey Matt…
    Aren’t you winding down your undergraduate studies this semester?

    1. Yes I am, I completed all my work for one class, My other I am finishing my research on invasive crab species habitat preference and writing up my Thesis of the work I did over the summer. All this and house renovations have made it some what crazy, and I am behind on applications to grad school and have not even taken the GREs yet. I am getting there though, so we shall see what happens. I am looking at a bunch of schools but when it comes to marine and earth sciences for anyone that is looking for grad school other than me what I have learned from grad students and professors is DO NOT pay attention to the program until after you find a professors you want to work for and also accepting grad students. Then you look at the financial package. What I have also learned and did not know until this past summer is that when a grad professor says they are looking for students, they already have grants put in place for said student or students to cover travel, living stipen and tuition. So then when the student applies for grants, that can be used for their own project and you have more freedom. The professor I been working for told me to stay away from professors that are not giving me any financial support as they are not committed or do not have the funds. He told me out right that he is not able to take me in because of Umass Bostons situation but wishes he could.
      schools I am looking into
      Northeastern three seas program
      University of Maine
      University of NH
      Umass Amherst
      University of Virginia
      university of north Carolina.#
      Marine science at southeastern Nova University down in Florida
      university of USVI #
      California State
      Stockholm university#
      Gutenberg university#

    1. I think so. I was the “wake-up” DJ on the 6-9 am shift on campus radio late 70s-early 80s. I seem to remember playing their album(s) in rotation.

    2. I’m afraid I’m too old but I thank you for sharing ans did listen to it

      Now off to the deck for a bit of night and some Christmas music.

  29. TK – Regarding Pete this evening, I didn’t see him at 5:30 but he seemed quite confident as I stated above. At least that was my interpretation. To his credit, he did not hint in any way of a specific timeframe. I would say a mini-“heads up” more than anything else.

    Is it possible Pete saw some last minute new info at 6:00 that gained his confidence a teeny bit more than at 5:30? Is there something new out there on the models?

    2. He has to put something. The Euro had a threat of snow. He tends to rely on the Euro for guidance, so it would make sense he’d toss flakes there. But we need to stop focusing on details of day 7. Follow my details as a guide. Days 1, 2, and 3 detailed. More general outlook days 4 & 5, and then an idea beyond… That’s how we should be reading forecasts unless you like being led stray on a regular basis. 🙂

  31. As of last night 1230am this morning, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is now open to oil drilling. Just would let you all know that was also part of what they were doing.

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