Monday Forecast

95 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 4-8)
The hype train continues as expected, with even local TV mets referencing snow amounts for threats that are 5 to 7 days away. You won’t be hearing snow amounts from me in this summary since the energy for the threat that is 5 days away is currently sitting in 2 places – half way between the Hawaiian Islands the the Baja Peninsula of Mexico for the southern energy, and in the western Aleutian Islands of Alaska for the northern piece of energy, and the energy for a potential second threat lies in places more distant. We don’t have the ability yet to model this with consistent accuracy. Maybe someday… What we do know is a pattern transition that is going to turn New England colder will be underway in the coming several days, marked initially but a surge of mild air and a rain event ahead of a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday, and yes this will be mainly rain everywhere for the majority of its duration. The cold air will come in quickly enough for a flip to snow and some accumulation mainly in the mountains of VT, NH, and Maine while it just ends as rain everywhere else. This type of a set-up does not allow the cold air to arrive quickly enough at all levels to flip rain to snow at lower elevations and southeastern New England. What else we know is that Thursday will be a much colder but dry day across New England with the exception of some possible mountain snow showers. Then it gets more interesting. We are not going to see the core of cold blast right in here. Yes it gets colder for Friday and the weekend, but the border of this cold will not be that far to our east and that border is also where the jet stream will be. This setup will allow at least one wave of low pressure, and possibly 2, to make a run at the region between Friday and Sunday. What remains to be seen is how the resultant low pressure areas will track and interact with the newly-arrived cold and the recently-departed mild air and available moisture to impact this area. Several possibilities are on the table at this point and the only thing we can do over the next couple days is monitor and fine-tune. Friday’s threat should be more clear cut by Tuesday or Wednesday. Any threat beyond that will come into focus during the middle of the week. But for the moment, let’s just focus on the next 5 days in this detailed forecast…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 44-50. Wind light variable to E.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 33-39. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Increasing risk of rain showers in the afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers likely. Temperature rising to 53-60. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with periods of rain. Breaking clouds later in the day. Temperatures falling to the 40s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow, rain favored coast, mix/snow favored interior if it occurs. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 9-13)
As mentioned above a threat of unsettled weather as one wave of low pressure departs and another approaches and moves through during the December 9-10 weekend. It remains to be seen what the exact impact will be, but again rain is favored coast, mix/snow interior early December 9 and again later December 9 into December 10. Dry weather follows briefly an then another threat of rain/mix/snow arrives for December 12 and/or 13. Plenty to iron out in the days ahead. Temperatures near to below normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 14-18)
A more consistent cold pattern, with a trough of low pressure dominated by the polar jet stream and 1 or 2 clipper type systems possible during this period. Snow chances go up, but threat of larger storm goes down, based on current indications.

95 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  2. Thanks TK !

    The latest example of looking out to far just happened this past weekend.

    I believe early last week, the models were showing a coastal storm being possibly close enough to us to provide wind and showers near the coastline. It took the models until about Thursday, or 48 to 72 hrs prior to the weekend, to start adjusting the storm much further eastward, out into the ocean.

    1. In general the Euro at least used to be decent with the longer range.
      Is this more the very complicated transitional atmosphere and the models
      are simply having a rough time of it??? Didn’t TK mention something about
      all the big models, Euro, GFS and CMC all showing a different pattern.

      No wonder they can’t get the features correct in the longer range. They can barely get it right 2-3 days in advance.

  4. Thank you TK.

    Waiting on those 12Z runs to see how they adjust.
    If one likes snow, I am not feeling it for now…Hopefully that changes…

    We really can’t expect full blown Winter weather this early anyway. Whatever we
    get early is a bonus. 😀

    If it gets to be 12/20 or so and still nothing in the cards, then time to get worried. Of course I would prefer it earlier than that.

    1. I’ve been trying to find the number of times we had good sized storm in early December but don’t know where to look. Can anyone help?

      I know there was in 1978 of course. And 2005? And definitely in 1992. And there have been at least one other…perhaps two….that produced enough snow to cause electricity to go out between those.

      I know that isn’t a lot but for pre-winter, it isn’t bad.

  5. Thank you, TK!

    I’m still hanging to the rain/snow (amount is incidental to me) for the 9th….or into the 9th. Based on absolutely nothing other than the new angel model 😉

  6. I don’t know if any Winter Weather enthusiasts feel the same way I do or not,
    but in general this is what happens to me.

    IF I am feeling down either due to work or family situations and then an upcoming
    snow event fizzles, then it exacerbates the “down or blue” feeling. It makes it more
    difficult to shake the disappointment. I know this sounds crazy, but it is oh so true.

    With age, I have ever so slowly learned to deal with this so much better, but that took some doing.

    When I was in High School, I would literally stand in the back yard and do a snow dance desperately trying to get it to snow, mostly to no avail.

    You would think at my age, I would despise SNOW. NOT the case at all as I like
    a good snowstorm as much now as when I was a kid.

    This is why I am so passionate about it.

    Please excuse my rant for today. Now back to your regularly scheduled program.

    12Z Euro due out around 2PMish. 😀

    2. I can totally relate. I can wake up in the worst mood and then remember that there is talk of snow on the horizon and snap out of that bad mood fairly quickly. And I take comfort in this craziness knowing that it was passed down from my dad.

  7. Early this morning I watched Chs. 4, 5, 7, 25 and none had any specific snow amounts or ranges. I would be curious what mets have numbers so soon. With water temps still relatively high, rain is the more likely form at the coast anyway.

    1. From the weekend, no maps were shown, but numbers were referenced verbally. Today, a few are showing model #’s already.

  8. From a retail business perspective I can tell you that if it’s “doing anything” at all outside – drizzle, flurries etc there is no longer any point in even being open. By Thursday of this week people will be near hysterical checking their weather smartphone apps every few minutes for updates. It no longer can seem to just rain or snow – any weather is a dramatic event requiring tweets, posts and pictures of wet roads or a parka clad reporter standing in snow. I Don’t remember growing up in the 1960s – 70’s weather being such an issue – it just did what it did outside and we dealt with it. In the winter it snowed and was cold and it snowed – in the summer, spring and fall it was sometimes hot and often rained but rarely was weather ever the lead news story . Maybe I’m just wrong ? Getting old? Probably some of both…….

  9. Interesting statement from the Taunton NWS this moring:

    The pattern in check, it`s the individual clipper systems that are
    in question along with any interactions with S-stream energy. The
    latest suite of forecast guidance continues to struggle seemingly
    unable to get it together, producing run-to-run inconsistencies,
    potential erroneous results with respect to timing, strength, and
    track. As mentioned earlier, not well known is how individual waves
    respond, modifying the H5 trof ( steepness / amplitude / tilt) and
    as to what draw and amplification individually they bring about in
    respect to conveyor belt motions / thermal wind response as they
    rotate through the flow, especially so if they can latch in/onto any
    S-stream energy. Only confidence is that through the H5 trof, as it
    maintains, we`ll see continual shots of cold air S out of Canada

  13. There be something around the area Friday through Sunday. What it is, how its organized, how it comes to be, will be greatly determined on the cold front passage Wednesday. We won’t know until Wednesday evening the earliest.

    1. Yup, something.

      How intense and what form and where are the questions.
      I suspect mostly light, at least until Sunday and then we shall see.

      I’ll bet anything that the Euro is much different than the GFS.

  15. Driving out to Amherst from Natick Saturday afternoon to watch my beloved Providence Friars take on Umass–would love to see some flakes to make it feel like college hoops season!

  16. 12Z GFS shows a very very active pattern with many many storm chances, much
    of which could/would be snow for most of the area. INTERESTING times ahead.

    Hmmm did someone post something to this effect sometime ago????
    I don’t know, but it seems as if someone did. 😀 😀 😀

  17. part of my love for snow is one, it covers the disgusting brownness of winter ground. Two, fun to track. three. always seemed to come in a time in which I could use a day to catch up on things either a project, sleep or just having a good break in a busy period. Oh and the famous test is canceled 😀

  19. Euro looks mega interesting. No out far enough just yet. Please stay tuned.
    After a brush by on Saturday AM, it looks as if a More POTENT wave approaches For Sunday. It remains to be seen if it is all snow? Mix? Or mostly rain.

          1. Sure, but this is still 6 days out, So don’t hold your breath. 😀

            However, it does appear something is up.

            We’ll have to wait and see.

  20. Not to beat a dead horse, but given the relatively warm ocean temps it is interesting that Boston can still average 9″ of snow for December. Even in March when the ocean is still at its coldest, the average is 8.2″ or thereabouts.

    1. Depends on the coldness of the air mass any storms run into and of course the wind direction.

      A frigid arctic air mass can offset a certain amount of ocean warmth, as long
      as it is not too too warm. I have no idea of exactly what that temperature is. My guess is it is somewhere in the 40s, but I do not know how high into the 40s.
      There is a battle zone there somewhere between the water temp and the air mass.
      At some point the water temp WILL win out.

      Plus December snow is probably weighted towards the end of the month
      when the water temp has cooled some.

      Bottom line, I don’t see anything unusual about the average Dec. snowfall. 😀

  21. Oh, I HATE this time of day!! No model data coming out.
    I wish we had a detailed global model coming out every stinken hour.
    I would be buried in them all day long.

      1. Oh, IF it were snowing, believe me I would make time.
        I’d even make time to go out and clean off the car and shovel. 😀

  22. Gronk is suspended by NFL for one game. I am surprised he was not tossed from the game yesterday. I have no idea what possessed him to do what he did.

    1. F R U S T R A T I O N …..

      There were a ZILLION penalties that “should” have been called on the defender, but alas none were!

  23. One game suspension is appropriate for Gronk. Any more would’ve been an overreaction, but one game is warranted. I was really disappointed in that. Genuinely lost respect for him as a person, which is too bad because I’ve always liked rooting for him. He’ll have a lot to prove going forward, not about his abilities, but his attitude.

    1. Since he has NEVER done anything like this in the past, I, for one, will give him
      a pass this one time. IF he does it again, all bets are off. Not that I condone what he did, because I do not. We all make mistakes. As my Dad always said:
      “That’s why they put erasers on the top of pencils”.

      1. I definitely agree with JPD. The daughter of a friend of Macs dated Welker years ago and got to know gronk. She said he is a truly nice person. You could pretty much tell from his expression after and then when they showed him on the sidelines that he was embarrassed.

        1. Thank you. This is what I thought about Gronk as well.

          Most of us have done something that we truly regret, at least I have.

          As long as Gronk doesn’t become a repeat offender,
          I accept his apology and life goes on.

    2. You lost a lot of respect for him as a person? Are you familiar with his charity work and his involvement in the community? Or are you reacting to his countless dui, drug possession and domestic violence arrest??????????

      I’ll just chalk up your ignorant comment as just that…..

      Gronk is a roll model to our children and I’m going to guess you really don’t know a thing about him or even played the sport. There are three at fault here, gronk, defensive player and the refs. The refs let that situation happen.

      Your suspect………

      1. He basically assaulted a guy on the field. That is what I am reacting to. Not exactly what I expect from a role model, which I agree he is to some extent. Of course I’m willing to give him the chance to prove, through future actions, that he is sincere in his apology as JP Dave and Vicki said. But I don’t respect plays like that. Disappointed in you as well for the tone of your response, which stands in stark contrast to the other respectful replies above. I don’t understand why respectful disagreement is so hard for some people.

        Anyways, this is not the place for it… back to weather for me…

        2. Agree and understand your view WxWatcher. It is your opinion. You are entitled to it, and you stated it respectfully…as you always do.

    3. Just a flat wave on a front. Probably how it is going to play out. Not sure we’re going to go from the current pattern to an amplified one in a snap. Atmosphere has some priming to do still. No science, just a hunch based on eperiemcing living here my whole life.

    1. I continue to believe we’ll be hard pressed to avoid accumulating snow between this Friday and the next. Have to see what happens with the models once we get that first front through.

  26. I fear this place is going to the dogs a bit… sad. It’s clear coastal’s posts are designed to agitate and incite. I totally stand by what I said on Gronk, but in light of this being a weather blog, probably shouldn’t have posted anything. Still, disappointing to be personally attacked for such a statement. The Internet brings out the worst in people… it’s so easy to take shots from behind a keyboard.

    One more note… Aaron Hernandez did charity work too. Was he a great person? You can do all the great things you want, it doesn’t excuse bad behavior. And no, I am not equating Gronk with Hernandez. But just as I lost all respect for Hernandez through his actions, I lost a piece of respect for Gronk through his, which can be gained back in time.

    1. Personally attacked? I just read back and can’t see where anyone, including myself, attacked you. Care to reword these allegations of being attacked?

    2. So your saying Gronk is a murder? I’m not following the AH comment. He was known to be a bad seed his entire career. So it’s kind of falling flat.

      1. To AH and Gronk, did you read my last two sentences? As to the personal attacks, does saying I’m “suspect” or that I “look like a monster” not count?

        This is the absolute last I will respond on this subject. If we’re both adults, we can agree to disagree beyond here. If you’d like to continue attacking me, by all means do, as I will make zero attempt at rebuffing you. I’ll leave it to anyone reading to decide not who’s “right” about Gronk, but who is conducting themselves in a civilized manner. I do apologize to TK for taking up space on this. A good night to all 🙂

  27. In terms of Gronk, he was lucky it was not more.
    1. What he did was not right
    2. What he did that was very good and probably why he did not get a two game suspension and a fine is because he apologized.
    3. This was totally out of character for him, he likes to have fun which is fine, its not like he is a trouble maker like many on the league. We saw Brady flipping out at Josh at the sidelines ( we judge players harsher if they have always been composed. Beckham on the Giants does it and its shown as immature. When Brady does it its called frastration.
    4. This leads to my next point. Refs are not calling penalties on other people that is holding and literally doing a horse collar on Gronk which could lead to serious injuries. He has to worry about being injured. When refs do not call these penalties on people making them on Gronk, but then penalize him for the smallest thing like a push off. I understand his frustration. He is no punk, I met the guy, He is just a big kid in a mans body lol. His frustration got the better of him. The one game suspension was good because it could of been much worse.
    5. Bill when to the head coach of Buffalo and apologized to him about the hit. Gronk was going to be in the Bills Dog house anyways. he is probably lucky he was suspended for a game.

    1. ok, I was going to respond to a different thread. you nsy eadily guess which one, but based on the discussion tonight I shall decline to comnent.

  31. 9-hour rainbow in Taiwan:

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42219665

    On a different note, I don’t consider any football player or professional athlete to be a role model for our children. I consider them professional athletes, warts and all. I admire their athletic ability and do not revere them as superstars. Moses was right when he came down Mount Sinai and was appalled at the idolatry he witnessed. We tend to put people like Brady and Gronkowski on a pedestal where they don’t belong. To us in New England Brady can do no wrong. To many fans outside of New England he’s practically the evil incarnate. There’s something totally off about both perspectives. They’re human, not God-like. They do good, they make mistakes. They’re no better or worse than the average Joe or Cathy when it comes to their human nature. As for admiration and respect I have more for average people who do good just by being who they are: Firefighters, teachers, cops, military personnel.

  36. This morning Ch. 25 has a map showing the best chances for snow this weekend and it is the Cape of all places.

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