Saturday Forecast

259 Comments

9:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 9-13)
Here comes the first widespread snow event to include most of the region, and it will be the result of a wave of low pressure moving along a cold front offshore. This wave of low pressure is wave #2 of 2 that we’d been eyeing, with #1 having gone by overnight with a few raindrops reaching Nantucket during the night. But that rain is important. It tells us that it is warm enough for rain somewhere, and without a ton of cold air draining in it also tells us that it will remain warm enough for rain somewhere, so this does not become a measurable snow event for all. But we’ll get back to that in a moment. Just to go back briefly and touch upon why this and many forecasts leading to an event are not so clear cut. We’ve been eyeing a batch of energy diving out of Canada and into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. The timing of this was key to whether or not one of these offshore waves would evolve more and come close enough to deliver precipitation to everyone. One theory for the difficulty in timing this a few days ago outside of normal model uncertainty is the fact that there is less data coming out of Alaska available for models, i.e., fewer upper air soundings. How much of a roll this may have played is not really known, but it will be interesting to see if similar situations occur going forward. Also, as a little fun fact, it seems that December 9 and 17 have become favorable dates for snow over the years. Looking back in history, and I won’t list a bunch of dates here at this point, there have been quite a few events of one type of another on these 2 dates. Today will be no exception. Once upon a time I thought today’s event would occur but would be placed far enough northwest for a lot of the region to have rain. This turned out to be a medium range forecasting error. So today we will once again attempt to foretell the future with minimal errors! Basically the forecast from my perspective is not really changed since yesterday so there is not much to say other than recapping we’ll have precipitation expanding across the region today, first with just spotty areas of very light snow except rain Cape Cod during this morning, becoming more steady from south to north later in the morning through midday and peaking during the afternoon and evening before ending west to east tonight. The rain/snow line will start out around Cape Cod and progress west northwest to at least to a Plymouth / New Bedford line. It will also bend up to include parts of Cape Ann where a northerly wind comes off a warmer ocean surface. It will likely expand to include most of the South Shore and possibly mix right up to near Boston. As everything winds down this rain/snow line will head back to the east. For road impact, look for moderate impact due to snow especially this afternoon into tonight where it is all snow, and less impact with mainly wet roads from the South Shore through Cape Cod. Overnight and early Sunday look for some icy areas on untreated surfaces. Looking ahead, a disturbance may produce a few snow showers Sunday and a lingering trough will keep some cloudiness around and maybe even a few additional flurries on Monday. The early call on the next system is a clipper that tracks over southern New England and redevelops to the east but too far north to give a significant snow event to the WHW forecast area. Still more details to iron out on this. Time for forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast. Spotty light snow except rain Cape Cod this morning. Steadier precipitation advancing northward late morning and midday mainly as snow except rain Cape Cod and a change from snow to rain into the South Shore towns of MA as well as Cape Ann MA. Highs 30-40, coldest in north central MA and southwestern NH and mildest South Shore to Cape Cod MA. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Overcast evening with snow except rain South Shore to Cape Cod, then breaking clouds with snow tapering off west to east and rain changing to snow before ending South Shore to Cape Cod. Lows 25-32. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH. Snow accumulation for this event: Under 1 inch Cape Cod, 1-3 inches Cape Ann and MA South Shore, 3-6 inches elsewhere.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of snow showers. Highs 33-40. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. AM snow to mix/rain. PM rain showers. Evening snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 14-18)
Fair and very cold December 14. Next clipper brings a risk of snow or snow showers December 15. Fair but not as cold over the weekend of December 16-17 and then another clipper may follow that with a rain/snow risk. Timing obviously uncertain this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 19-23)
Overall temperatures below normal with a couple opportunities for precipitation, favoring snow or snow showers, from passing clippers.

259 thoughts on “Saturday Forecast”

  1. Good morning and thank you TK. Nice detailed analysis that is much appreciated.

    Here are a couple of re-posts.

    Here are the final 12Z NAM Kuchera Snow numbers for the College of DuPage site:

    https://imgur.com/a/q1Jw6

    They are mostly 5-6 inches across the area and is down from the 6Z run.

    JpDave says:
    December 9, 2017 at 9:14 AM
    Here are the 12Z 12KM NAM 10:1 snow totals

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2017120912/namconus_asnow_neus_12.png

  3. Some of the models are hinting at a series of smaller/moderate events thoughout the week, I wonder if this will be the norm for the winter. Not really many large storms, but smaller ones that end up adding up. 😉

  4. I’m looking forward to this event for Marshfield.

    A few miles will matter here, so close to the ocean’s edge and it’s fun to see post event, the change in snow depth traveling along our local route 139 over such short distances. You can literally go from nothing to snow plowing depth in a matter of 5 to 10 miles.

        1. Yes indeed! It’s funny, I basically spent 5 years in Lowell as a commuter during my college years and they were some of the leanest snow years except 1 somewhat snowy one and 1 kind of normal one. I never really got the full Lowell experience.

    1. I think if you take out NWS’s map there is not a huge spread here other than that panic-added 8 top end on the Ch 4 map. And I use the word panic half jokingly. I completely understand why it’s there. Some of the best forecasters out there at NWS have it. There are some short range models that have been reliable that have it. Believe me in the back of my mind I have not 100% ruled out having to toss in a quick 6+ band somewhere. I just am betting against it with myself as a forecaster right now.

  7. Buzzards bay and Nantucket sound buoy obs have an 020 wind direction. I suppose having a coastal front can only aide in some localized lift for those just west of it? Will be interesting to see how far north and west that ends up moving ……

  9. It seems that with every snow event, large or small, there is always that “sweet spot” just SW of Boston. This current event is no exception. IIRC even during the Blizzard of ’78 there was an area in this location that received 30-36″ if I am not mistaken.

    TK – Why does this almost always occur? What exactly are the dynamics involved?

    2. Elevation is the most common reason, especially when you have NE wind. You end up with a small upslope enhancement.

  11. Thanks TK. All looks on track to me. Not a blockbuster, but it will snow. 3-6″ for most. Snow shield gradually coming together and will continue to do so.

      1. I think it could have started as either where he is but I’d have favored snow and then a mix/change when we get just a touch more northerly wind.

      2. I was thinking snow to rain to snow. I would have been surprised if it started as rain.

        If it behaves like past early season events, we’ll get a dusting to coating, which will be washed away, but we’ll get a coating on the back side with some leftover precip after the colder air returns.

    1. It is taking into account that banding NW of the main area. Something we often see but never quite know where until it happens.

  16. out and about. At the grocery store. everyone in the city is getting bread and milk.

    vis dropped significantly. down to aboylu
    1 1/2 mile in light aacumulsting snow. all but roads covered.

  22. I am not one to exaggerate visibility, but it is getting down there. this border line moderate snow. vis has to be at modt 3/4 mile and is likely close to 1/2 mile. will know more as I drive home. store wad not bad at all. sufprised bssed on gullness of lot.

  23. With the low sun angle, I suspect streets and sidewalks get white by around 2:00 pm, certainly by sunset. Unlike spring when not until darkness.

  24. Came back from getting the Christmas tree with my mom. First time we have picked up the tree with it snowing. Half inch of snow right now and roadways are getting snow covered.

  27. I’ve been so used to the recent back loaded winters, I forgot how quickly pavements can get snow covered even around midday like it is right now.

  30. out on the porch with the fire going while typing away on a series of projects with some hot cider listening to christmas music with the snow falling outside. Can’t complain 🙂

  32. I can imagine this being a storm in which Metro West, but also `interior’ areas of Boston like Hyde Park and JP do much better than the coast. Snow is sticking in Back Bay, but not to roadways, except sidewalks and side streets (a little slushy). Certainly looks pretty to see the trees and grass coated with `Christmas’ snow. I say Christmas snow as the flakes have a conventional Christmas-like quality to them in terms of size and shape.

    1. Yeah right down the street Joshua salted so far but I suspect we will be rolling the plows by 5 once darkness hits . Not expecting 6 in this area of Boston .

  33. We’ve gotten a thick coating, even to the beaches. By the sea wall, it was turning to rain and looking out into the ocean, the visibility was higher and the clouds darker, as opposed to that grey sky with snow.

    Going to need to add 3-6 further west into west central mass. Good old banding.

    1. Yes, indeed. I think central Mass. does very well with this one; actually west of 128 should do well, even to our southwest, say, west of 95 on the Canton-Providence corridor.

      1. What do you consider very well in the context of this event? Above my top # or in the range? Just curious really.

  34. I just got back from the Boston Metro High Railers model railroad club open house (held every April & December). So cool. A lot of holiday-themed trains running their tracks today. They do such a great job.

  37. Funny watching the HRRR waver around trying to get this right. 17z probably comes down a bit from the 15/16.

    1. That’s interesting. Would have expected you to have covered streets. Side streets are getting covered here in Boston, but main streets are mostly wet. Looks like a March storm out there with one caveat; the sun angle. That will allow more accumulation than it would have in March, and certainly as it gets dark I expect the accumulation to build up.

    1. There you go.

      Watching the snow fall gently onto Charles Street on Beacon Hill. Silent Night is playing in the background in the cafe where I’m sitting. Couldn’t feel more Christmas-like. I consider Silent Night and Once in Royal David’s City to be absolutely gems – stirring reminders of the meaning of Christmas to Christians, but also to a Jewish person like myself.

  40. Been alternating between light and moderate snow since mid morning here in Coventry, CT. We are up to 2.7″ of snow so far and sitting at 29 degrees.

    1. Just really picked up in intensity as we are getting into some decent banding. Borderline heavy snow with bigger flakes. I don’t foresee a problem getting to 6″ or more here if this keeps up.

            2. The first. If I could tell you a winter storm would be impacting the region around that time this far in advance…………. Let’s put it this way, I feel that the cold clipper pattern is still going to be ongoing at that time. There will be 1 or 2 “breather” periods but it’s hard to say when those will be just yet. Models won’t project them very far in advance accurately.

  42. Mark looks like Yankees fans like you and me are going to get an early Christmas gift with the news that Giancarlo Stanton is coming to the Yankees.

    1. That is going to be one heck of a lineup with a 1-2 punch of Judge and Stanton. The two of them together are good for 100+ home runs alone. Sounds like the Yankees are parting ways with Castro and/or Headley and some prospects.

    1. We pretty much have there here in JP as well. I was out moving my car
      about an hour ago and it was an easy 1 1/2 inches. 😀

  45. TK you up at Zion? Now that I am on the other side of Woburn and at a lower elevation I wonder how I might make out this year.

    1. I won’t be there until this evening for a few hours. I’ll be able to compare snow amounts from here (Woods Hill), Zion on the west side, and somewhere in between.

  46. Mark with the Stanton acquisition Yankees are going to be a definite World Series favorite in the 2018 season.
    I just measured 3 inches of snow. The forecast of 3-6 inches looks like it will work out just fine for my area.

    1. They certainly will be as long as the starting pitching holds.

      Just measured 3.3″ here. Got a really quick half inch in that last band, now we are back to lighter snow.

  47. Sorry. A bit late to the party. My girls took me to a special, destination unknown, lunch

    TK thank you, as always, for the great writeup and all that you do to make this blog possible. I hope you are feeling better!!

    Dr S…thank you for the snow maps.

      1. Maison De Manger in Whitinsville. It is a creperie in one of the old mills. Donna…who owns and runs it..has done a phenomenal job decorating. Food is great and there is music on Saturday. It would hands down be Macs favorite go to place out this way.

  48. There is a band of moderate to at times a little heavier snow over my area. Looking on radar extends Danbury to north of Hartford. Will see how long this band sets up shop.

  50. HRRR runs 15z through 18z have very gradually lessened the snow amounts. We will see momentarily if 19z continues this trend. I suspect it will look a lot like 18z’s.

  51. This afternoon’s sunset is three seconds later than it was on Thursday: 4:13:21.

    Army-Navy is on on CBS in Philly snow.

    1. Three seconds…..does that mean sunrise is later?

      And I hate to belabor this but I had to read your comment a couple of times. Mac would have said the same thing. His watch was alway within one second of GMT. I think he boycotted the newer version which shall not be named

      Enjoy the game and the snow!!

      1. Yes, Vicki, (assuming my Internet source is correct) sunsets are getting longer.
        This is my source:
        https://sunrise-sunset.org/

        Much to my surprise, you can actually type in your address and get astronomical data for your location.
        My watch is also to the second of US Naval Observatory time.

        1. Many of my students think that, just because it’s on the Internet, it’s true. You should read some of the “facts” that I get in writing prompts on some of my students’ assignments!!

          1. I can imagine.

            And I’m not surprised about your watch being exact.

            Ah yes UNO…that which shall not be named. 😉

  52. HRRR is about the same now as it is now needing to be added to snow already down. I’m still comfortable with the 3-6 for most in the all-snow zones.

        1. The intensity here is small not heavy is this what we have moving forward . You think it stops here by 2-am

  53. Watching the Army Navy game from Philly. The last time it snowed that hard and football game was played in that stadium Lions Eagles a couple years ago

  54. Just took a measurement here in JP while it is still snowing really good.

    3 1/2 inches on the grass, 1 3/4 on the sidewalk and 1 1/2 inch on the street.
    That about sums it up. 😀

  56. I concur JP, I have a little more on my driveway due to being colder than regular street. The 3-6/4-8 range should be achieved.

    1. It’s looking that way.

      Not for nothing, But my gut says the 3KM Ferrier snows are not real as I think
      it is over compensating. So far those numbers not reflective of what is in
      my front yard. 😀

        1. See above. As of 10 min ago:

          3.5 on grass
          1.75 of walk
          1.5 in the middle of the untreated street. 😀

  57. Bubble of drier air about to enter New England from south to north will slow rates down for a while between 4 and 6.

    1. I have to go inland a bit to take my daughter to a birthday party, so I’ll probably be right back into it 🙂 🙂 🙂

  61. NWS just posted this awhile ago:

    …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY…

    * WHAT…Snow continues through tonight. Plan on difficult
    travel conditions on untreated surfaces. Snow accumulations of
    4 to 7 inches are expected, with isolated 8 inch amounts
    possible.

      1. By snow amounts those criteria have not been met at this point. Some may make it given the intensity of the echoes upstream.

  62. No Charlie hole where I am. Been a pretty good band of snow over my area .
    Just measured 4.5 inches of snow. Watching to see if those heavy bands pushing into NYC come up to my area. I think I will see half a foot if not a little more.

  63. Closing in on 4″ in Coventry, CT. Snow picking up again after about a 90 min lull. Looks like we are starting to get into that band that has been affecting JJ. There’s another fairly strong band that has set up shop further west over Albany NY as well.

  64. I’m in NYC presently. Roads are wet. A couple inches on grassy surfaces. Snowing steadily but not as hard as radar illustrates.

  66. Mark I just watched Ryan Hanrahan and he is thinking the hills around the Naugatuck Valley may end up with the most from this.

  67. We have a ways to go yet. Numbers will be realized and most places see upper limit of, if not exceed the ranges.

  69. Noaa’s warnings and stuff have become to simplified in my opinion. Why do we need to adjust to the increasing stupidity of the country?

  71. The snow on the trees looks beautiful. I can take 1-2 dumpsters per winter but these events seem “nicer.”

  73. The burst in the last 45 min has finally gotten some areas over 4 in MA.

    The last couple HRRR runs have picked up the pace and brought the end slightly sooner and put less emphasis on that secondary band that the NAM has been showing. I’m not fully ready to buy this yet though.

  75. Pretty snowfall in downtown Boston, but the roadways are mostly clear and slushy. Not really a plowable snow here, except perhaps the sidewalks and walkways. Plows did a good job of pre-treating with salt. Snow is very light and has been that way for the past 2 hours.

  76. That band in central ma. Got me to 4″ quicker than the first 2″. We’ll see where we go from here. Coming down pretty steadily.

  77. I think channel 7 has jumped the shark a little with this storm. They have a reporter in Andover wearing snow shoes. THERE IS ONLY 2.5″

    1. They are doing OK around this area. Last winter not so much. Usually Woburn is great but I think they had an issue with workers at DPW and contractors and it compounded itself.

      2. I am glad I am out of the cul de sac. Those guys would spend excessive amounts of time down there doing nothing. Many would just come down there and park to take breaks….which of fine but would have several loud trucks idiling outside the house at wee hours for long time periods.

  79. 22Z HRRR shows about 2.5 inches more for boston from 6PM forward. That would get me over 6 inches, but I haven’t a clue about Logan.

  80. 5″ in Coventry, CT and snowing at a good clip. Nice band has set up here and extends up through central MA and north towards Lowell. Same band that Vicki and retrac are in. Good call by the NWS on the WSW’s but in retrospect they should have extended them further west in CT.

  81. A generous measurement of 2.5” here in Sharon. We were stuck in the Charlie hole from about 3pm till now. Snowing at a moderate clip now but it’s gonna have to really pick up to get to WSW criteria

  82. Rain/ice pellet mix here with some wind. Had 1/2 inch prior to changeover. In the western side of Hingham by the Derby shops, there was about 3″ and it was a snow/ice pellet mix.

  86. Ok let’s try this again tomorrow when does Boston stop and again does the intensity pickup.

  88. Vicki, I missed the holiday stroll on Charles Street this year as I was at a conference in Philadelphia. Too bad, because it is a nice event. Nice that two generations of your family were represented.

    1. Son loves it. I sure enjoyed it two years ago when he took me. I’m sorry you missed it but I know there will be more

  90. It is nothing short of an early Christmas miracle that dinky northerly drift was able to keep the blowtorch ocean from bursting into Boston. R/S line must have been maybe 5 – 7 miles to the east as the crow flies?

    With a little help from Vicki & Mac as well? 🙂

    1. Thanks Jimmy. That Logan total is quite impressive and almost half the average for December. And good for you as well. 🙂

      9.0″

  94. I think I eluded to this yesterday but the fact the storm was not powerful ensured all snow in Boston bc the winds weren’t cranking.

  96. That burst gave us just under and inch. We are barely shy of 6 inches.

    It has slowed down considerably for now.

    I’m still working on how to sit on the deck tonight 😉

  97. I was out 1/2 hour ago. Been busy and why I haven’t been perched at my computer all
    day.

    5.5 inches here in JP as of 8PM and it’s still coming down decently.

    I’ll take another measurement around 11-Midnight. 😀

  99. You know, after all is said and done, this little event was a very nice season opener
    for us. Very nice indeed.

  100. I just wish it was two weeks from today so we would have a White Christmas.
    I agree with you JPDave nice little event to get the snow season going.

  103. I had 4.7 as of 7PM and am on the other side of Woburn now which has about the same. No doubt over 5 now.

    Well on the way to a snowy December with something for parts of the region Monday night and another shot late next week.

  105. Logan should easily hit 6 inches imo. We are close if not over that by now here in JP. Still coming down.

  106. 6″ in Coventry, CT and back in a bit of a lull. Still more to come though off to the west. Should be good for at least another inch. Nice little storm. Very pretty outside with the Christmas lights on the snow covered bushes.

  107. SSK – to try and answer your question above, based on the HRRR, snow is largely done in Boston by 12-1 am. Light to moderate snow until then with perhaps another inch or two before it tapers off.

  108. Wish I kept my 4-8″ from yesterday, but all in all a pretty well behaved system. The radar presentation all day has been about what I expected at least. I want to check some snow-liquid ratios tomorrow, want to see if the slightly higher totals were more due to better than expected ratios or a little more QPF.

    1. WxWatcher just based on being out in it and shoveling and making some snow balls, my gut says it was a better ratio. I think we did 10:1. Just because it is wetter, doesn’t mean it can’t be 10:1. It was a fluffy wet, if that makes any sense. 😀

  109. Sitting out on the porch today, writing away with my project that I did over the summer and looking at the snow with X-Mass lights and X-mass music has got me thinking of all the good times that come with this time of year. Its kind of strange this winter, as it could very well be my last full winter here in New England for a while, I am making alot of life decisions right now. It was nice to sit back and watch the snow, something about snow just takes the nerves away and knowing that tomorrow I am going skiing makes me even more happy after such a semester that should not of been stressful its gonna be fun rewinding, especially since I am going with an old racing buddy.

    1. Nice Matt. Love your sitting on the porch. And snow does seem to bring peace. And since I find Sutton to be the center of peace for my world, I’d say that it has been as perfect a day as it could be……

      1. Yeah, I would not know how to feel if I was in the situation that your in today. Only thing I guess people can do is look at all the good times they had and spend it with love ones 🙂

        1. You are right, Matt. Family and friends. And I count my WHW family among them. And I think faith

          I sit on the deck each night. My youngest says she thinks I sit out more in winter than summer. May be true. But dry chairs are hard to find tonight. So I opened the slider and just put a kitchen chair in front of it. Worked great

          And we seem to have leveled off at six inches

          https://i.imgur.com/U8JSaLD.jpg

  111. 6.5″ now here and still snowing. Intensity has picked up a bit again as we get into the last real band of accumulating snow.

    Seeing some 7″ reports now as well from Framingham and parts of Worcester Co.

  112. Your 7 inch amounts fit nicely with the synoptic band. The majority of reports were 6 inches or under but generally in the upper range of the 3-6, not the lower side.

    And yes the rain/snow line, I thought, was a fairly easy forecast because of the light wind field. There seemed to be some confusion but for the most part that line was right where it was expected to be.

    My struggle is usually with banding and that was it yet again.

    1. I have always questioned the framingham reports as you may recall. When we lived there, the numbers were consistently higher than any I had….some by a significant amount. Perhaps they are right.

  113. I measured again around 11:30 PM. Tally at that point was 6.5 inches here in JP.
    Still snowing a bit. Might have added another 1/4 inch or so?

    I’ll see what happens overnight and perhaps measure in the AM or not?

  118. 1/2 inch of snow …. then, rain …… additional 1/4 inch of snow at the end.

    Well, that was fun. Nice to see the snow again. I had missed it.

    1. Sorry about that Tom. It could have been even worse. A WBZ Wx watcher from Rockport reported no snow at all. Just rain for the entire event.

  121. A spotter reported 4.5″ here in Plymouth, NH, which seems about right to me. More of a fluff factor here on the outer edges of the storm. Boston Logan reported 0.67″ liquid and 5.8″ of snow. Almost 9:1, and that’s right at the water. So I think in general ratios were 10:1 or more for most places. A good little event.

    Turning my attention now to Tuesday. Looks like mainly a rain event for eastern parts of SNE, but expecting accumulating snow up here, probably several inches. Redeveloping clipper. Looks like a parade of clippers for the next 7-10 days. Fits the pattern.

  126. I find it beyond interesting that Gloucester received 3 inches and Rockport zero even though they are literally right next to each other.

    2. Here’s my take.

      https://imgur.com/a/UmEQr

      Look at the above zoomed in map. With a light North wind, Rockport is immediately exposed to the effects of the water (ie boundary layer too warm for snow), yet a few miles to the south the boundary layer could be just cold enough to support the snow. Light North wind comes over a few miles of colder land.

      In this instance, I do believe that would explain it.

  128. That Tuesday clipper appears to be coming in too far North. Not only that, but the whole damn string of clippers look like they want to pass to far to the North. PLENTY of time
    for that to change, but my initial feeling is… BLAH BLAH BLAH…..

      1. I think all med-long range model output set us up for disappointment in one way or another.

        I am not saying any of those will verify. Crap, even Tuesday may
        not be correct just yet. 😀

  130. In 8 westward miles, we went from basically bare ground to 4 inches of snow, with occasional plowing needed here and there.

    1. I was going to make a wise crack re: your typo lay => last

      But, I agree. Interesting bands set up. Luckily my location got in on the
      band action. We must have had a good band leader (tk). 😀

      2. The oddest thing is that I read it last night until you pointed it out JPD

        I think we all get used to reading what we think and not what is there. Interesting

  132. Clippers are always hard to pinpoint as they come across the country and how these clippers will interact. What would happen once its in the area. Only takes it to be further south than forecast and we get more snow.

    1. Absolutely. But Tuesday’s event is getting better defined. We shall see.
      I have seen them vary 50-100 miles from a forecast 12-24 hours in advance.

  133. Morning all…

    Shoveled until 1AM. Awoke with an a-fib episode at 4:30ish, but took my magic meds and this one shut down quickly. Again no real worries, I can get these active periods with the irregular heartbeat. I actually see my cardiologist this coming week for a regular appointment. I may suggest bumping my regular meds up a few milligrams. It’s always been an option. I’m on a fairly low dose. 🙂

    So I will be updating shortly before I go outside to finish some last min. cleanup around 2 cars, one of which is being towed away for donation tomorrow. 🙂

    JP’s explanation about the rain in Rockport was very good. I actually had this in the blog discussion / forecast above as I was expecting a rain/snow line to set up across the tip of Cape Ann, along the immediate South Shore, and Cape Cod, because of the NORTH wind. And EAST wind would have brought rain into many more shoreline areas and likely mixed or flipped Logan over rather easily, resulting in a much lower snow total there.

    My forecast error, once again, was missing the top end snow amounts, but that was because the intensity of the banding was greater than I would have expected it to be. Ah well, win some lose some.

    Off to update…

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