Monday Forecast

69 Comments

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 11-15)
A disturbance exits the region this morning. A clipper system crosses the region Tuesday, too far north for all of the region to see snow but not far enough for all of the area to escape it, redeveloping over Maine then exiting via Canada. As it intensifies it will drag down the coldest air of the season for the middle of this week ahead of the next clipper system that brings a chance of snow Friday. Details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with passing snow showers possible early, then mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Precipitation arriving pre-dawn as snow or mix northwest of a Boston-Providence line, mix or rain to the southeast. Lows 28-35. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy morning with snow central MA into southern NH, rain southeastern MA and RI, snow to rain in between. Snow accumulation 1-3 inches outside of I-495 and north of I-90 but 3-6 inches higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH, and less than an inch to the southeast. Mostly cloudy afternoon with a few rain showers possible. Highs 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Temperatures fall to the 20s early then remain there.
THURSDAY: Sunshine then late clouds. Lows from the upper 0s to middle 10s. Highs in the 20s.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Lows in the 10s. Highs from the middle 20s to lower 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 16-20)
The pattern will feature near to below normal temperatures in a general northwesterly flow with a series of clipper systems passing through. Current timing brings them through about December 17 and 20.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 21-25)
The pattern is expected to continue generally the same. There is a slight chance of brief temperature moderation at some point during this period but not enough evidence for me to be confident of it.

69 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. At the moment, I am not impressed by anything I see.
      Too many clippers portrayed as passing North. If that happens, I for one,
      will be most disappointed. But, I have been looking at this long enough
      to know that those med-long range depictions rarely verify, so I am hoping
      that at least some of them pan out properly. We shall see.

      1. I mean some of the clippers not the current depictions. Sorry
        about any confusion as I have not yet consumed my 1st mug of coffee.

  5. Musings of a grumpy old man today regarding “banding”.

    I am digging deep into my ancient memory banks and I honestly cannot recall
    any on air meteorologist discussing “banding” when it came to Winter Snow storms.
    I can certainly recall them occurring because I can remember heavy snow with a lull of much lighter snow only to return to heavy snow once again.

    It’s only been in the past several years, perhaps 10 or so, where I can recall specific
    references to “banding”.

    Is it just that it became more widely understood recently OR is my long term memory
    now suspect?

    While I am at it, is there any links for a complete discussion on banding and what
    causes it? I think TK provided us with something on it last year or the year before, but
    I don’t remember it all. It is a remarkable feature of Winter Storms, not unlike
    the banding found in Hurricanes.

    Many thanks

  7. Thank you, TK.

    JPD…..sounds like a really good title for a book. I’m thinking we should start compiling JPD/OS-isms and publish!

    And I promise to try and get the spreadsheets on snow guesses completed this week. Between work and stuff, I apologize for not getting it done. I think I have all except a few recorded.

    1. to your question above and its a complete guess ….

      Id think the met profession new about banding many decades ago …

      but, they didn’t have the technology to present that to viewers watching a weathercast.

      They didn’t have the simulated radars that hint/show banding and all the other technology at their disposal to present possible banding.

      Even though they now mention it and show it in simulated radars, its not too often they create projected snowfall maps with banding contours in them. Then again, its impossible, I suppose, to know where the bands will set up.

      2. perhaps. Certainly TK has alluded to the difficulty in
        predicting if/where banding sets up. Fascinating subject.

  9. Just getting caught up. Thanks as always to TK, SAK, JpDave, WXWatcher etc for bringing me in 20 minutes from zero knowledge of what’s going on (read: busy moving so head-in-the-sand) to being able to challenge anyone (anyone not on this blog that is) to semi-knowledgeable weather cocktail party chatter. You guys are amazing.

    Front loaded Winter sounds good to me as we head to Hawaii in Jan for a two week trip and are renting until we find our new home so my husband will get one year’s respite from shovel, snow blowers battling the snow.

    And 1993-1994 was a great Winter to be a senior at Concord Carlisle. I seem to recall that up until that time it was one of the years with the most snow days. But I’m sure that record has gone under many times in the new millennium!

  10. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

    Commuting the winter of 95 – 96 was crazy. We were always driving in snow.

    I remember the April Fools Blizzard of 97. Had to drive from Danvers back to Lowell in the initial stages of it. We didn’t have the communication then that we do now. So, a full day after it stopped snowing, I attempted to go to work and get down rte 114 and couldn’t due to unplowed sections of the road. Turned around ……. went back the next day, which was better and found out that it was the day the small business had reopened.

  11. Today’s 00z models runs and now the 12z run of the GFS look a little more promising for the track’s of the medium range clippers to have snow potential. (not tomorrow’s for southern New England)

  13. Models will continue to struggle pin pointing the formation of clipper systems as they scream across canada and down into the area.

  14. I was a high school senior during the winter of 1978. I know we had no school for three straight weeks (two for the Blizzzard; one for February vacation). I know we had other snows days because the (first) Blizzard of ’78 around January 20.
    The state Board of Education wasn’t as strict with “days in” as they are now. I don’t remember losing Spring Break nor having to go to classes on Saturday. I do know Governor Dukakis waiving five days because Massachuetts was under a state of emergency that nobody was allowed on the roads for a week.
    Being a senior, I did not have to make up a single snow day that year, a fact that I still tease my brothers with.

    Last Saturday, December 9, was the 12th anniversary of the freak “snow-cane” in 2005. I believe that was the most intense storm (any season) in my lifetime. 80-90 mph gusts, 4-5″/per hour snowfall, whiteouts; thundersnow; traffic at a standstill.

    2. We had to make up the time at work missed during 1978 ….any way we chose but even for those of us who were in management and salaried.

      2005 was absolutely amazing. We had thunder snow in Framingham. My now son in law was at the house. I was on a conference call and he was measuring snow. We had 6 inches in less than an hour. There have been a number of storms on or right around December 9. Odd. Other dates have multiple storms associated with them as well.

    3. I worked all but the Monday. I took the T into Copley where I worked
      in office above the Exeter Street theatre. Then, I had to get over to
      the main office in East Cambridge, so took Green line to Lechmere
      and was walking on top of cars to the office. Pretty cool.

      1. Wow – on top of cars. Awesome.

        I did not remember the T working.

        I got “stuck” at Mac’s apartment in Medford. Ah darn 😉

        1. Hahaha, my gf at the time (now wife) got “stuck” at my apartment during Nemo. I remember her parents being furious and threatening to drive from Boston to Walpole to come get her 😀

          1. My parents might not have been very happy…..especially when Mac and I were bored so walked to Belmont (8 miles) to visit and then turned around and walked back….both of us!

    1. I just keep hearing TK’s voice saying “I have a funny feeling about Friday”. That is what keeps me sane. 🙂

      1. Oh yeah, I know. All I am doing is showing what models
        have as of now, that is all.

        I completely understand that this is a developing situation. 😀

  18. What’s the thinking on the commute tomorrow morning? Will the frozen stuff be an issue metro Boston the immediate coast? I take the red line from Quincy to Kendall.

  19. This is a very active pattern… tomorrow’s system has trended warmer but still looks to bring significant snow to ski country, and probably still several inches for me here in Plymouth, NH. Mostly rain for SNE.

    Next clipper drops through by late Thursday. That one may bring some light snow to the south coast, but doesn’t look like a big deal. The late Friday/Saturday system is behind that, and it has both northern and southern stream components (or at least it will if it actually develops in a way that will impact us). Watching that one closely, although most current indications are that system won’t phase/develop in time.

    And there’s more in the pipeline behind all that. This is a true winter pattern the likes of which we haven’t seen in December for several years.

    1. That Friday night/Saturday deal could be substantial IF it comes
      together. 18Z GFS has it drift out to sea harmlessly South of us.
      Seems the way, clipper to the North and Rain, Clipper to the South and dry ots.

  20. I’m kind of hoping the late week thing is not going to involve Saturday. I am driving to Agawam and then Springfield. 😛

      3. I work at a funeral home here in RI it’s not the most pleasant to be especially on a cold snowy or rainy day. Hopefully the director provided a tent for shelter.

  22. Not sure why that interception wasn’t pass interference. Not liking how this game is starting out. This has trap game written all over it.

  23. I’m not sure the Pats really care about this game. Dolphins are desperate, and it’s near meaningless for the Pats. The regular season will rest on next weekend. We’ll see what happens tonight, but if they get down by a couple scores at halftime, I wouldn’t expect much of a comeback attempt. They don’t need it. Focus now is more on getting healthy.

    1. If they lose tonight and beat the Steelers next week, I believe Pittsburg would own the tiebreaker. I don’t like the idea of a playoff game in Pittsburg. That’s why every game is important.

      1. I thought if they lost then won next weekend we’d own the tie breaker on head-to-head. Maybe not though. Obviously that assumes both teams win out beyond then too.

  24. If the pats lose tonight, they have to win out to get the #1 seed. They have a lot of starters on defense out tonight. I think if they can pull out a win, so be it. If they lose, it’s not a killer, just means they have to win out.

  26. Miami always gives them fits this time of year. They’ll probably still pull it out but whoever thought this was going to be a blowout or easy doesn’t respect history.

  29. They just need to fire up the jet, get back to Foxboro and start over for next week.
    They can still pull this out, but nothing they’ve done so far tells me they can score.

  31. Pats should just shut it down for tonight. It happens. It’s a game the other team simply needs way more than they do. We’ll certainly see their best effort next week.

    1. They sure cannot win every game. Although, Even if they lose, I’m not sure they know the words “shut it down.”

  34. Can the Pats make the playoffs at 11-5?

    Seriously, I can see them losing to not just Pittsburgh but Buffalo as well. We may see a major collapse here. The year that Brady went down the first game of the season they missed the playoffs at…11-5. I forget the year.

    1. he is struggling with an injury to his foot… the one that QBs rely on to step back and go in for the throw

  36. Not concerned one bit about the Pats.

    Miami D had the Pats kryptonite last night. Giants beat the Pats twice in the Super Bowl with this : effectively pass rush with only 4 allowing the defense to drop 7 into the secondary.

    Pittsburgh does not have the same defensive line next week, so they wont be able to play this type of defense. The Pats will score around 40. Now, the Pats defense may well give up 45. But Brady and the offense will be back to normal next week.

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