Tuesday Forecast

89 Comments

7:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 12-16)
Low pressure will move across south central New England today, with a track far enough north to allow mild enough air in for a mainly rain event in much of the forecast area with snow that accumulates confined to north central MA and southwestern NH with a hint of accumulation slightly south and east of there. This will be the mildest day for a while as a very cold airmass awaits behind this system to move in for the middle of the week. This may be accompanied by some snow showers as temperatures fall and winds pick up on Wednesday. A wave of low pressure will rapidly move southeast then east, passing south of New England on Thursday. A little snow from this may skirt the South Coast but the bulk of the precipitation shield with the low will stay south of the region. Another disturbance will dive southeastward and ignite another storm on the boundary well to the south of New England by Friday and this new low may make a run far enough north to bring a snow shield into at least a portion of southern New England Friday night, moving out by Saturday. Confidence on this part of the forecast is low. Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Snow with up to an inch and locally 2 inches higher elevations north central MA and southwestern NH mixing with and changing to freezing rain then rain, snow with up to 1/2 inch before changing to rain with pockets of freezing rain briefly in the I-495 belt north of I-90, brief snow/mix to rain I-95 belt, rain elsewhere. Band of heaviest precipitation will be rain all areas first half of afternoon and may include thunder. Highs 35-42 north central MA and southern NH, 43-50 elsewhere with mildest in southeastern MA and RI. Wind SE 5-15 MPH, shifting to S late.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers evening. Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers overnight. Watch for patchy icy areas overnight. Lows 22-28. Wind SW 10-20 MPH evening, W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts overnight. Wind chill falling below 20 overnight.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Temperatures steady 22-28. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 20.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 12-18. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Filtered sun and a period of heavier clouds and a slight chance of snow near the South Coast. Highs 22-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow late-day or night. Lows from the middle 0s to lower 10s. Highs in the 20s.
SATURDAY: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 17-21)
Colder than normal pattern with a risk of a couple passing systems in a general west northwest flow. Will fine-tune.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 22-26)
Brief moderation may occur but overall the same general pattern is expected.

89 thoughts on “Tuesday Forecast”

  2. Left the house this morning in Groveland at 6 and it was 29 degrees and snowing, got down to Peabody and it was 35 with a mix and by the time I got to Chelsea and the Tobin it was 42 with the wind pretty strong off the ocean. Really cool to see the dynamics of New England weather within a 25 mile drive down 95 & Rt 1

  3. Good morning and thank you TK.

    Up to 37 already here. The brief very light snow earlier had stopped. Just cloudy here at the moment. Waiting on the rain.

    re: Patriots last night

    Patriots Piss Poor Performance

    Why? Take your pick(s) (no particular order)

    1. Took opponent for granted – mailed it in
    2. Looking ahead to Pittsburg – ignored opponent
    3. Piss Poor Preparation
    4. Sorely miss Gronk, Edelman, Hightower and Flowers
    5. Thought they were in Mexico and the whole team was suffering from Montezuma’s revenge. They certainly had football diarrhea as they shit their pants over and over.
    6. Higher powers wanted them to loose (read this: the mob that truly still exists and have their hands in everything. Nice chunk of money to be made when it’s all on the Pats.)
    7. They always struggle in Miami and played down to that expected level
    8. Defense sucked. Offense sucked. Brady was PUTRID!!! BRUTAL PICKS!!! He couldn’t hit the broadside of a barn door. Truly PATHETIC. Is he injured? Even so, no excuse. If he couldn’t play, then he should not have played. Give the reigns to Hoyer.

    Ahh that’s enough excuse making for a pathetic bunch of so-called football players.
    I am DISGUSTED!!!

    If they think they are going to beat Pittsburg, then they best bring a different
    team to PA.

    End of Rant. Back to weather and your regularly scheduled programming.

    1. I agree. We need a new team. They have not served us well. What in heavens name were we thinking when we kept them. I am embarrassed….embarrassed I tell you….to call them my team!!

      😉 😉 😉 😉

      Sorry, apparently my snark is on this morning. I do enjoy your “rants” as they make me smile and that is a good way to start the day!

  4. Thanks TK. No classes here in Plymouth, NH today with a nice snowstorm underway. 7-10″ likely here by tonight.

    Going forward, La Nina looks to be ready to take over the large scale pattern. Southeast ridge showing up in earnest now on most of the ensemble guidance before Christmas. Once it sets up shop, it should be a frequent feature for the rest of the winter.

    2. Talked to my sister in law in Bow, NH, last night. She was waiting for the call from her son to see if she was on for taking care of his daughter in the even school is cancelled. Sounds as if it might have been if it is icing.

  6. Will be a big wake up with the cold air about to invade us . WxWatcher could you explain more on the La Niña & how that will impact us here . Many thanks . We certainly have lots of different weather events to discuss with the temperature, some areas facing icing issues later with the rain and watching how Friday’s system may or may not impact us here .

  7. Ssk… Regarding the La Nina pattern, what I’m mostly referring to is the tendency for a ridge of high pressure to develop over the Southeast US and western Atlantic. Typically that results in warm weather for the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, with colder than normal weather for southern Canada. It often leaves New England in a battle zone, on the edge of the cold and warm. It can lead to a lot of messy storms, which tend to favor more snow/ice in northern New England and ice/rain in southern New England, something Tom mentioned as well with the increased icing risk. I’ll be looking for a lot of systems like that going forward. The best window for “classic” snow events may be closing soon.

  8. I hope we can reload the snow machine in time for Christmas. According to Matt Noyes we will be missing storms for awhile.

  12. The predicted weather pattern of #cold and active storm track could be a prolific #snow producer during the holiday season for the Central and Northeastern US.

    From Juda on Twitter

  13. From wundermaps it looks like the Rain Snow line is right around I95 for where there is precip calling currently

  19. Quite an interesting ride going up interstate 95 today.

    Its 42F and light rain in Beverly, MA with a SE wind

    Its 25F and light snow in Portsmouth, NH with a NE wind

    and its 22F with light snow in Portland, ME with a variable wind.

  20. Yet another model run (12z GFS) in progress showing long term, what WxWatcher spoke of earlier this morning.

    Cold high pressure to the north, SE ridge with a warm mid-atlantic and SE US …. setting up a big temp contrast and thus inclement weather somewhere near New England.

    That projection would probably create some travel issues in central and northern New England sometime just before or on Christmas.

    Thankfully, that’s 12 to 13 days out and hopefully, one feature will be more dominant to either push the contrast very far to our south (cold and dry) or put us on the warm side of the system with no icy travel.

  21. Don’t be so quick to write off the front loaded winter…

    What is the GFS’s major bias about pattern shifts?

    1. ooooh ooooh pick me….always too early on the pattern shift, in the past it’s shown the cold and snow coming only to be delayed by a few weeks or never come at all

  22. Uh, its December 12th. Winter doesn’t even officially start for 11 more days and we our already writing off our window for snow chances?

    If I had a dime for how many times the GFS showed a premature pattern change in the long range and then kept pushing it off for weeks on end……

  23. A La Nina pattern, when it does set in, is also not the kiss of death for snow chances in SNE. There are other factors at play such as blocking that can suppress that southeast ridge and send storms tracking south of us in more of a snow track. We have had several productive La Nina winters for snow. The La Nina pattern at least is active with storms approaching from the SW, and with the deep cold that will be residing to the north in Eastern CA, it should make for some interesting winter weather in SNE in Jan and Feb.

  24. I’m not at all saying our snow chances are over in SNE. That would be ridiculous at this point in the season. However, it does make me feel more comfortable about my near to below average snow prediction, because my top concern for busting high was that we might pile up 15-20″ of snow in December. We probably won’t do that.

    Whether the long range warmth is real or not… it is being noticed. Certainly explains the bloodbath (-4% at last check) in natural gas futures today. Those are often a good proxy for sentiment on medium range temperatures in the eastern half of the country. This time of year, if they’re down that big, traders are banking on warmth, and vice versa.

  25. Good heavens. I was so excited that MassBay was 7 again, I forgot to thank you, TK!

    As always……..this blog and the family you have helped build is greatly appreciated!

  27. Just briefly glanced at the posts today. I’m seeing some pessimism on how this month will turn out snow-wise. I think it’s too early to write it off, even if a southeast ridge builds by late December. 2011-2012 was an anomaly, as was 2014-2015: Obviously totally different kinds of anomalies. My guess is this winter will be more of an average one in which we’ll have plenty of snow chances when all is said and done. Actually this month looks fairly favorable for both cold and snow chances on all the long-term forecasts I’ve viewed. It should be noted that snow chances are just that – chances that it will snow. All of course depends on track of the storm. I don’t think we’ll be missing one ingredient – cold to our north. This was missing throughout most of 2011-2012.

    1. TK had words of Wisdom. Do NOT hang our hats on the GFS runs going out
      1-2 weeks. We shall see.

      Even this Thursday looks very very close. Right now, appears to be a near miss, but it is oh so close.

    2. It’s the same every single year . If we go back and look it’s comical . Every chance is going to bring different precipitation to different areas throughout the winter when winter actually starts next week . I’m more concerned with ice tonight if the roads do not dry out before the temperature drop .

  28. And on the Patriots’ debacle. Weirdly, they don’t play well against the Dolphins in Miami. I’m exaggerating a little, but their last good games in South Florida were in December 1985 and January 1986 – Squish the Fish – when Grogan hooked up with Stanley Morgan on some memorable bombs, and Tippett et al. defended like maniacs. That was a fun Patriots team, by the way. Back to the Belichick/Brady era, this team has flaws which were exposed by the Dolphins last night. If a team can learn from its mistakes it’s the Patriots.

      1. What is interesting is that Miami is the only team (maybe other than Denver) that can consistently expose the Patriots. It’s not like Miami is a consistent playoff team year after year. Very puzzling to say the least.

        1. Perhaps, a bit of a mind game going on. Brady had that look the few times I tuned in last night. I am not sure what gets into his head, but it is a consistent look that I have mentioned often. I admit to not watching the entire game. The Pats were something Mac and I made a big deal out of watching so of late I have had to tune out a bit.

  29. There is a rather impressive storm cell, with lightning now being detected, moving onshore in southeast MA. It has some noteworthy low level rotation. Mesocyclone scale only for now, but I’m watching. 3km NAM had been showing thunderstorm potential in a low CAPE but extremely high shear environment.

    1. The temps have gone up that’s for sure . What is the projected temp say around 3:00am tomorrow morning

      2. The front will probably arrive a little before then. You may go up a few more degrees this evening, but middle of the night tonight you’ll go from the 40s to the 20s very quickly with a very cold day ahead tomorrow.

  30. On this first night, I’m sending wishes of peace, love, happiness and joy to all in our WHW family who celebrate Hanukkah.

  31. Howdy!

    Quick thoughts on a few things…
    Today: Classic example of local and regional variations, exacerbated by the low sun angle and snow cover. The “warm” air got into some areas but it sure struggled elsewhere. 2-4 inches of snow in the higher elevations, some icing in lower areas with cold air valley-trapped. For the MOST part this went as expected but it’s always hard to nail down those little details.
    Overnight / Wednesday: The cold air will arrive in force after midnight when it falls to the 20s then sits there Wednesday, with wind. A few snow showers but most areas won’t see them.
    Thursday: Clipper passes to south early in the morning and may bring a few South Coast flakes.
    Friday night: Short-lived burst of snow if a developing storm is close enough.
    Weekend: Dry, cold start, less cold finish.
    Next week: GFS ensembles are over-forecasting the La Nina induced ridge. It will be “there” but not nearly as strong as depicted. We’ll see a brief moderation and then a reload of some cold shots. No, not December 1989, just a tendency to be colder more than not. This pattern should live into the early days of 2018.

      1. Depends on where you are. I’m 75% sure that central MA and southern NH west and north will. There is about a 50/50 shot from northeastern MA to south central MA and just under that south and east. But that will change depending on the pattern upcoming.

              1. It’s not. I think Boston (and much of the area) will end up with above normal snow before December is over.

  33. 14″ of new snow today at Mount Snow and 13″ new snow at Killington thus far. Killington is up to 60 trails open now. Should be setting things up for some good holiday week skiing this year!

    1. PERFECT!!! Fits my mood.

      Honestly, this has a MUCH better chance of verifying than would a blizzard
      depiction. 😀 😀 😀

  37. Here’s Judah Cohen’s latest blog:
    http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

    Some snippits:

    1. By next week the models are predicting a temporary relaxation of the amplified pattern across North America then followed by a re-amplification of the pattern heading into the holiday season. When the pattern returns to an amplified state there seems to be uncertainty among the models where will be the axis of the cold temperatures.

    2. In my opinion, the most critical period for determining the dynamical nature of this winter is likely over the next several weeks related to the strength of the stratospheric PV. If a significant weakening of the PV takes place between now and mid-January then the winter is likely to be characterized by widespread cold across the Northern Hemisphere. Alternatively, if the PV strengthens then the NH winter is likely to be characterized by overall mild conditions.

    3. Based on above normal Eurasian October snow cover extent, below normal Arctic sea ice extent, active high latitude blocking and an easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) I expect the first scenario of a significant PV disruption followed by multiple weeks of severe winter weather across the NH.

    And I got a kick out of this one:

    4. I am leaning towards the ECMWF solution based on the renewed perturbation of the stratospheric PV with building heights across Alaska and northwest Canada but I do have an admitted cold bias.

    At least he admits it….

    What I get out of this is that after the cold this week, he expects a brief relaxation next week before a reload of a cold, winter like pattern across the Northern Hemisphere for several weeks. The caveats are….he isn’t sure where the axis of coldest air will be and he isn’t sure how long the pattern will last (depending on the strength of the PV).

    More wishy washy-ness. Guess he didn’t take your advice last year Dave….

    1. Mark,

      I read that this morning. I was going to post something, then backed off
      as I thought I might be too negative.

      I agree totally about the Wishy Washy-ness.

      I think it will do this, but then again, it might do this, IF it doesn’t do that….
      on and on and on….

      Look at 11:22 or so of this video and it depicts the exact problem.
      Spanky attempts to inform the golfer of the path of the upcoming putt.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QSP9jEmBLA

      1. I actually have the highest respect for Judah as he is a true professional ( key word is professional )

        1. I don’t think anybody is disrespecting his professionalism. He certainly knows what he’s talking about, but sometimes his wording leaves one feeling like he is very indecisive. I knew he had a cold bias and he readily admits that. I have a low snow amounts bias. 😉

    2. You may recall some # of days ago we talked on this blog about the coldest air holding off until after December 10, coming in with a cold pattern for a while, a brief relaxation, and then a reload. This outlook remains the same from my perspective.

  38. he is trying to be careful, he should of kept his research private until further study, but was probably forced to do it quicker than he would have.

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