Monday Forecast

97 Comments

7:36AM

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 18-22)
No big changes from yesterday’s outlook. Warm front approaches today with spotty precipitation. Cold front brings a rain shower risk late Tuesday. Wind and cold return for Wednesday, then a calmer cold Thursday as high pressure moves in. Next warm front approaches Friday but takes its time arriving.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light snow with traces to possible coatings mainly southern NH and northern MA, patchy light freezing drizzle then a slight chance of light rain southern MA/CT/RI. Highs 28-35. Wind SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to SW late.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures rising slowly through the 30s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a late-day rain shower. Highs 42-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers possible. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the lower 40s but falling later in the day.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Highs from the upper 20s to middle 30s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows from the middle to upper 20s. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s daytime but warming at night.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 23-27)
Briefly warmer followed by rain showers December 23, then colder air likely returns by that night. Dry and chilly December 24. Watching wave of low pressure with rain/mix/snow threat December 25-26 based on current timing, but may need to be adjusted.

DAYS 11-15 (DECEMBER 28-JANUARY 1)
Expect fast-moving systems, temperatures averaging near to below normal with a couple snow/mix/rain threats.

97 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

    1. As mentioned above, the Euro keeps the SE ridge in place until after Christmas.

      I know there is still a chance, but something will have to break just right.
      I am more and more pessimistic about our chances for a white Christmas
      and it is looking more and more that Christmas day itself may be the
      last hope and IF I had to place money on the GFS or the EURO, guess which
      one I would pick.

      Oh well, the Patriots won. That’s something anyway.

      1. December 26 is a lovely day to have snow.

        Do you have any cover in Boston? We are still all white out this way.

        1. Yes, in our neighborhood anyway. Not so much closer
          to downtown and not so much near the office in
          Roxbury.

          My back yard is 100% covered. Front yard about 50%.

      1. Not in Sutton either but sure looks and feels like snow.

        Soooooo anyone want to volunteer to put lights on a rather tall outdoor pine tree 🙂 🙂 🙂

      2. I stand corrected. I just witnessed the falling of a couple of snow flakes. Call out the National Guard!!!

  6. I was wondering ….

    With this ‘warm front’ struggling to move through today, any chance when a small ripple moves along it, east of us tonight, that the 16F air in Portland, ME makes one of those shallow, low level pushes down the coastline in eastern Mass.

    Not implying the temp will drop to 16F, but that the wind may turn light N this evening in eastern Mass to at least Boston and temps may briefly drop back towards or just under 32F ???

      1. Perhaps something to watch.

        I love in deep winter those shallow, cold airmass surges that travel down the eastern coast of New England. You’ll end up with low 20s in Essex County and Boston …. meanwhile, its in the mid 30s Worcester, westward. I think we had one last year and it caused rain to become freezing drizzle and there was a really tough morning commute.

        1. Even if that does happen, not sure there will be much
          if any precipitation. Of course, it doesn’t take much if that precip is freezing rain and/or drizzle.

  8. If it means anything at all, the 30KM 0Z FIM model also has the front past
    us with 1-2 inches of Snow on Christmas Day.

  9. Thank you, TK.

    Very light snow in Back Bay.

    Oh, how I wish the SE ridge would just disappear. Alas, it looks like it will be a key determinant of our weather during the 23-26 December period.

    The Patriots are very fortunate to have won yesterday’s game. I’ll never understand certain NFL rules. I just fail to get the `logic.’ Yesterday, the Patriots were the beneficiary of a rather contorted and bizarre rule which makes no sense to me (and no, I am not a Steeler fan). They were also the beneficiary of poor Steeler coaching (Steelers should have gone for a 2-point conversion when they scored their last touchdown to make it a two possession game at the time; with seconds ticking off the clock at the end of the game the Steelers should have spiked the ball and kicked a field goal to tie the game rather than essentially improvise on a play that had doom written all over it). The Pats’ defense was porous, especially against the run. They were also inexplicably bad at tackling. The offense was too reliant on Gronkowski. Others have to do pick up the slack. Belichick is the best coach ever, and Brady the greatest QB. They’re aware of how fortunate they were yesterday and will not take this victory as a sign that all is good with their team.

    1. I concur. That “Survive the Ground” rule blows.

      That player clearly made the reception. IMHO, he held on long enough
      and once he crossed the plane of the goal line, it doesn’t matter if the ball moved or if he totally let go of it. That was a Steeler touchdown.

      I listened to a nice commentary on this subject by Boomer Esiason this morning. He clearly stated that the rule is bogus, however, but the final ruling total conformed to the official NFL rule on the matter. Complain about the rule, but not the application of it as it was correct.

      1. There was a good discussion on SAKs FB page. If you watch, when his left elbow hit the ground, he started to lose control of the ball so control was technically lost before ground came into play. One poster on SAKs page pointed out that he did not take a step before he lost control which makes a difference. Why he tried to stretch is beyond me. IMHO it seems if he didn’t have true control, it should not be a touchdown.

        1. That’s ok, but it’s not the way I saw it. I saw total control,
          Until he crossed the plane and then lost control.

          But no matter how any of us see this, it was ruled
          No Touchdown and it’s in the books as a Patriots Win.
          I’d much rather they win differently. 😀

    2. to me, its simple …..

      A professional football player, with no one within 5 feet of him, should be able to control a catch all the way to the ground and Jesse James did not. Had he simply done that, and he should have easily done so, with the poor Pats defense on that play, the rule is not in question at all.

      1. Agree, Tom. This is the rule and it makes sense to me.

        “People are saying a runner breaking the plane causes the ball to become dead…which is true. BUT the receiver does not become a runner until he completes the process of the catch. TOTALLY DIFFERENT” from Mike Pereira

    3. I don’t find the rule bizarre. I use a flowchart and am usually able to figure out what the refs will call it… here it is for the “catch” last night:

      https://i.imgur.com/fhHrvbx.png

      Otherwise you’re going to have to go with “a catch is a catch” simplified rule which will make the league even worse. If you follow the flowchart in tandem with the angle the officials used found here: https://streamable.com/occjw

      It all makes sense. Even romo in the clip above thought it was a catch but then you hear his ohhhhhh when he sees that angle. That coupled with the confusing ending where Ben didn’t spike the ball just means it’s a good win for NE in my book.

      1. I love this. I do a lot of flow charts for the best business practices side of our business and think they are the best way to visually understand something.

        Very nice, Dr. Thank you for sharing.

  10. Ok, so I have a proposal for the WHW crew..

    I propose we change the naming/dates of the seasons just for southern New England. There will be five seasons. Here it is:

    November 15 – December 31: “early winter”
    Jan 1 – April 31: “winter”
    May 1 – May 31: “late winter”
    June 1 – Aug 31: “kind of like summer”
    September 1 – Nov. 14: “fall”

    Do I have the votes?

      1. I’d say Summer would be July 1st through Aug 10th and that’s it.

        Spring is 4/15 through June 30th

        Autumn August 11th through November 30th

        Winter December 1st through April 14th.

        Having fun with dates

    4. Winter January through early march.
      Mud season March
      Spring April , first half of may
      Early summer. Late may through June
      Summer late June through mid August
      Fall: Mid August through October
      Late Fall November/December.
      Remember our summer temperature average is in the low to mid 80s 😉

      1. Lol. This is a funny thread.

        I love…

        Tom has only one day of summer. (He’s close to being spot on both in duration and date)

        JPD confirming that summer doesn’t start until June is over.

        Matt with fall starting in mid august. (He’s right too)

    1. Sorry,

      that was sped up even more and I read it incorrectly.
      The GFS wants to move it through on Saturday evening, 12/23.

      There is something bubblin to the South for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day./
      Does it get up here? waiting on a few more panels.

      1. Geez, we can’t win. The GFS brings the cold front through OK
        and in plenty of time, however, the disturbance (wave) on the front to the South and SW, wants to ripple up too far to the West.
        Figures, but it will change some more I’m sure.

            1. If we all point our fans to the SE, perhaps
              we can push that damn ridge to the Easdt
              a tad, allowing a white Christmas here.

              Btw, the models are struggling mightily with placement and timing here.

              We could very well end up with a scenic
              beautiful New England white Christmas.

              1. I think this is why TK keeps reminding us to be patient with regards to projecting out Christmas Day.

                I think its also the strength and amplitude of a Yukon Territories 500mb ridge, which is forcing a Canada Trof to position itself in a such a way, that’s affecting the SE ridge.

  14. It is now s steady very light snow here. I guess this will be as close to a Christmas snowfall as we will get. 🙁

    Oh well, maybe next year. Same for our front loaded winter. 😉

  15. Steady snow here in Plymouth, NH… finals week! We’ll probably end up with 2-3″ by tonight, we’re already close to an inch today which is over-performing what we were expecting so far. Looking forward to heading back south later this week, but wish I could take our snow cover up here with me!

  16. I completely agree with you JPD that it would have been better if the Pats had won differently. The defense should never have given up that 60-something yard play in the first place. That defense had better straighten things up…FAST!!

  18. No changes in my thoughts on the Christmas period. The Southeast Ridge is going to take over this pattern, at least for a little while. That will lead to one “warm” rain event around the 23rd, and likely another colder rain event around the 25th, though still some fine tuning needed there. Beyond then, colder. And probably drier. SE Ridge retreats temporarily. And this will be the trend going forward. A battle between Arctic cold to the north and the warmth of the ridge to the south. As we go through the next couple months, we should gradually see the SE Ridge score more and longer duration victories like it will for ~12/22-12/25.

    1. Deja Vu–I was looking back at this date a year ago trying to recall last December. here’s what I found:

      JPDave says:
      December 18, 2016 at 2:08 PM
      Euro look PATHETIC!

    2. Btw, the only thing I can say about the Euro run, is that it gets very cold
      at the end of the run. Will it go for naught? Too early to say.

  24. thanks Captain, Two papers down the thesis still to be fixed up before I hand it in with all the corrections.

    Little side note, I be done with all my undergraduate work but my advisor pointed out that I would only need two more classes for a biology minor, so I be taking two classes in which I been really wanting to do. Biology of fish, and Bio-Statistics in the spring. I am also looking at several opportunities abroad as there are some great funding opportunities abroad. I am looking at a few on the East coast in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Maine but will be needing to do the GRE exams to get into these which I have not done yet…. Shall see what happens

    Anyways, it was snowing for a bit, but only some light coatings.
    I am hesitant to say anything about the Christmas period. Part of me feels like the models are over doing some features.

  26. Matt, great that you completed your undergraduate work and good luck with your graduate studies. Have you considered the Fulbright program. There are many slots available in UK universities, but also others across Europe. It’s highly competitive, but always worth a shot.

    Retrac, I like your ideas on seasons. From my perspective, as for seasons in New England, nothing is cut-and-dried. Consider some examples from this year in which the weather often made it hard at times to pinpoint what month it was. In late February – soon after a sizable `cold’ snowstorm with temps barely in the teens – we enjoyed May temperatures approaching 70F. People and birds thought spring had sprung only to be sorely disappointed as we endured sustained cold in March that made it feel like January. Fast forward to July when we had some of the coolest July days on record. Several in mid July (!) really felt more like mid April. And then early September felt like July. I could go on and on, but you get the point: SNE has 4 distinct seasons, but a lot of intra-season variability as well. We inhabit a unique part of the earth that is both coastal and continental in terms of climate.

    1. Thanks, and yes, i been looking at the fulbright program. Been looking at the UK Sweeden and Finland, But mainly Sweeden as I have some connections.

      1. A reminder that I’d be happy to reach out to a friend of Macs family from Sweden who live in NYC now. She lost her husband just before Mac passed away and has three boys about your way. Her family is in Norkkoping and I believe you are thinking Stockholm but still….

        As always, Matt…the very best to you. I know you and WxWeather will soar!!! We are so very lucky to have you both as contributors here and as WHW family

  27. The late afternoon NWS Discussion says that the trend for Christmas Eve/Day is warm meaning rain or ice and not likely snow.

    In meteorology isn’t the trend always your friend, TK? How do you go against that? Even if it is still days away.

      1. The trend is subjective. There is no trend other than slight oscillation in the details and continued differences between the operational runs and the ensembles. So ground may be held – but it’s shaky ground.

    2. We’ll let that play itself out. And it might do NWS good to compare the ECMWF ensembles to the operational from today’s 12z run…

  28. I also believe I have not specified any precipitation type beyond Saturday. Reason? Nobody can do it that far in advance in this pattern.

  30. Euro EPS looks very COLD the week after Christmas. And Christmas Day itself looks good for snow central/northern NE on the 12z run.

  33. The column may be way too warm for any snow locally on a potential Christmas Day event …

    The surface may have shallow cold air oozing southward ahead of the system into interior southern New England.

    1. To start, yes perhaps, but as depicted by Euro ensembles there would be a change to snow in Boston at some point. Hoping for sooner, rather than later.

      Waiting on 12z runs.

      1. What do you think of euro’s strengthening of storm on 12/25 into 12/26 ? I am highly suspicious of that. In this pattern, I would guess that we should be seeing weak ripples of low pressure moving along the thermal ribbon and not a decently strong low pressure area.

        1. I wouldn’t exactly call 1012 mb strengthening???

          Just a little beefed up wave is all, however a juicy wave capable of laying down decent qpf.

  34. Icy spots !!!!!

    At least in Marshfield, where we have some breaks in the overcast, my walkway, driveway, the school’s parking lot and walkways have a thin film of ice all over them.

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