Monday Forecast

77 Comments

10:05AM

Merry Christmas!!!

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 25-29)
There is lots going on in the weather department but I’ll make this as short as possible. First the storm system we’ve been watching is moving through now and it appears it is behaving about as outlined in yesterday’s blog post. Low pressure is about to explode in the waters just east of here but move rapidly northeastward, pulling the snow (rain to the southeast) away with it, but not before a final burst of snow occurs from northern RI through eastern MA and south central and southeastern NH. It looks like the southern extent of this burst should be near the Cape Cod Canal with the rain/snow line from near northern Narragansett Bay to about Plymouth MA where areas near there that have not seen snow may get coated at the end. This will also be true for the tip of Cape Ann MA which also had a longer rain period. Where the heaviest burst of snow occurs, an additional 1/2 to 1 1/2 inch will occur along with a risk of a clap of thunder, bringing the accumulations mostly into the expected ranges across the region. So what this means is white Christmas for most of the region except the far southeast (Cape Cod). Once the storm pulls away it will be about the wind this afternoon. There are no big changes to the outlook going forward. A cold day is expected Tuesday with a passing snow shower as a reinforcing cold front arrives later in the day, and then the very cold air arrives for the middle of the week and into Friday as well. By late Friday we may be watching to see if a snow threat materializes for the region. It is too early to know the track and intensity of that system as far as how it will impact this area but will be watching.
TODAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Snow (rain southeast) ends by late morning. Partial clearing this afternoon. Temperatures ranging widely from as low as the lower 20s central MA to the middle 40s southeastern MA will remain steady or slightly rise in the coldest areas and fall more rapidly in the warmest areas during the day. Wind becoming NW and increasing to 15-30 MPH interior and 25-40 MPH coast especially Cape Cod with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill near 0 at times.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated afternoon snow showers. Highs 20-28. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 5-12. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gust. Wind chill below 0 at times.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10 at times.
THURSDAY: Sunny. Lows from near 0 to near 10. Highs in the 10s.
FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Lows from near -5 to +5. Highs from the middle 10s to lower 20s.

DAYS 6-10 (DECEMBER 30-JANUARY 3)
Watching 2 storm systems for possible impact favoring snow during this period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 4-8)
Below normal temperatures. Another storm may threaten later in the period.

77 thoughts on “Monday Forecast”

  6. Merry Christmas
    Changeover was instant at 9:20am in East Bridgewater
    everything is covered in a matter of minutes.
    the temp dropped 10 degrees in about 20 min.
    very impressive

  10. Just went out and shoveled and took a bunch of measurements.

    Best I could tell, 3.5 inches in the street, 4.0 inches in my back yard.
    –
    Tim Kelly was right on Target when He said at 11, boston 3 inches or so.
    Of course I don’t know what kind of looney measurement Logan will
    have. 😀 😀 😀

  11. Merry Christmas and thanks TK!

    2.7” final total here in Coventry CT. Had a mixture for 2-3 hours before the flip to heavy snow. Beautiful outside.

  15. To all who have Android phones, if you would like the latest version of the
    WHW weather mobile APP, you can install via the following link:

    https://i.diawi.com/JQHVn8

    This version now utlizies Yahoo Weather instead of OpenWeatherMaps for more
    accurate observations and forecasts, although Not perfect.

    1. I have it working for IOS, but only through ios10. Does not work for ios11
      just yet. Working on that. Apple is NOT very cooperative.

        1. Ocean,

          Here is the deal. Apple is impossible. I cannot just give you an install file. I have 2 options.

          1. Is to put it up on the Apple Store and If I do that, I am
          going to charge something for it And we do NOT want
          that for Bloggers.
          2. The way bloggers can get it for free as we want,
          They have to become a tester. I can do up to 100 testers.
          The issue with that is, I have to register the device Udid
          with apple. The is the only way I can provide an install file.

          So if you are comfortable, here is a link that if you
          open in Safari on your iphone, it will give you the device udid. Then you would have to get it to me.
          Not sure u want to post on blog, so you
          can email TK and he can get it to me OR you can email
          me directly: dhinchli@comcast.net

          I get the feeling folks are uncomfortable providing
          the Udid. I Cannot do anything to the phone other
          than allowing this app to install.

          We’ll have to see how it goes. Perhaps in time
          I’ll place on Apple Store either on the real cheap
          or nc. Don’t know at this point.

          Anyhow, your call.

          Thanks for the interest.

  16. Merry Christmas everyone!

    General 3-6” away from the coast. I know a few isolated spots of more. Colder, faster, advisory level event verified well with NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF blend. NWS bit hard on HRRR which had misplaced banding, went verbatim with its QPF, and moved moved most of the region to a 5-10” warning event.

  20. 4.1 inches here on Woods Hill in Woburn. The snow started out as medium consistency then went dry. There was drifting during the 90 minute snow blitz portion of the storm with 2 claps of thunder. More than half of my snow (nearly 3 inches) fell in that 90 minute period. It cut off for a few then we had one more squall as the final band came through.

    We share our driveway with next door neighbor and one of them was out with snow blower right as snow ended so 75% of the driveway is done leaving me with just a cleanup around my car and doing the walkways. 1/2 hour to 45 min job. Visitors arriving not long after that. Main roads are clear and damp. Side roads plowed but still snow on them.

    Now that this event is over going to clean it up then enjoy the afternoon and evening with family but I’ll be checking in here! I am also looking at info going forward and will talk more about how I think our colder-than-normal, front-loaded winter is going as we head into the first 10 days of January. Hint: More of the same.

    Merry Christmas to all celebrating!

    And here is the latest from SAK: https://stormhqblog.wordpress.com/2017/12/25/weekly-outlook-december-25-2017-january-1-2018/

  21. As for the possible storm this coming weekend, it will be difficult to forecast as was this storm. I think all weather this winter will present more forecasting difficulties … model divergence seems high to me. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like even inside 3 days, models are unclear.

  22. Just so cool how quickly the snow ended. It was almost instant. Looks like between 5-6 here in North Reading. Perfect timing for the snow. Everyone can still get to where they need to for Christmas dinner. Merry Christmas, everyone!

  23. Wind is whipping. My newest outdoor decoration is on the east side of house and protected. We will see how it holds up 🙂

  25. The snow was surprisingly fluffy. I was expecting heavy, wet slop as I assumed the nice, fluffy stuff was reserved for the far distant suburbs. My back is grateful. Easy to move around. 🙂

    I hope Logan later on reports at least a couple inches. I was not outside for an hour shoveling a “trace” or some teeny, tiny tenth of an amount. My guess is a good 2-4″. 😉

    1. It was heavy and wet here. I was surprised. Seems we both had surprised that wee opposite what we expected 🙂 🙂

  27. Temps recovered a little with the sun…making the snow removal a little easier before the freeze up later.

    1. I didn’t measure, but I would say closer to 4 inches here in Dorchester.

      How about you JPD and other Bostonians here? 🙂

  30. Target dates (approximate) for snow threats:
    December 30
    January 1-2
    January 6

    Active pattern til mid January. Below normal temps. Above normal snow.

        1. I’m batting a thousand. My son and I first pats game Sunday I can’t be doing snow . I’m just getting home now .

  31. Leaving now tough day . Once the thunder snow came we were cooked . Celebrating Xmas tomorrow as no one could make it

  32. I didn’t hear the thundersnow…darn!

    I don’t like typical summertime thunderstorms, but for some reason, I kind of like hearing thundersnows. 🙂

  33. SSK…just a random thanks for the work you and so many others do in these storms. I do three houses on the street with my snowblower but you all make it happen and sacrifice on days like this. I hope your “tomorrow Christmas” is special.

    1. Thank you very much . I work at a hospital so it needs to be absolutely perfect. None of us could believe we were there as long as we were ( last night ) we all thought early afternoon tops.

  34. re: snow threats

    Target dates (approximate) for snow threats:
    December 30
    January 1-2
    January 6

    Things will have to work hard for the 1/1-1/2. Hope things come together.
    Or it is now 1 event 12/30,12/31 ??????? and not 1/1?????

    12/30/31 & 1/6 look better at the moment, but we shall see.

    1. OR maybe all 3. TK knows.
      just because a model does not see it now, does not mean it will not happen!

      some day I will learn!!!!!

        1. That is not true. Because they would be snow events for at least parts of the region. That is one of those misperceptions of the mind. Snow events don’t miss more than rain events. There are just fewer snow events in a given year.

  35. From which direction is the potential weekend storm coming from? Ch. 7 and NBC Boston has it coming from the south, up the coast while Ch. 5 shows it coming out of the Great Lakes. Which is it?

  36. Re: Upcoming Snow and this speaks to the model Dumpster fire alluded to yesterday

    2 images. GFS for 1/2 and Euro for 12/30,31

    Note: Gfs has 1/2 but does NOT have 12/30,31
    Euro had 12/30,31, but Does NOT have 1/2

    So go figure. This stuff isn’t that far out there.

    Anyhow GFS Kuchera snow and EURO proprietary snow algorithm that is NOT 10:1

    https://imgur.com/a/SrTbw

      1. You’re making my point as a well-known sports talk show host
        and former Patriots and Bills player used to say.

  38. If we could get a storm to track close enough to give precipitation over the weekend we won’t need a lot of QPF with the cold air that will be in place to produce a good amount of snow. I could see a situation of having snow ratios 15:1 or greater.

    1. 15:1 sounds reasonable. With these temperatures, could be something like
      20:1.

      Actually looking at the Euro, I found 1 location where it had
      0.6 total qpf with snow of 11 inches. That equates to a ratio of 18.33:1

      Now this it the service I have for the Euro, but even still it gives an idea
      of what the ratios may be. That was for a location near the NH border.
      Farther South, say around New Bedford, the ratio was higher.
      was something like .91 qpf but 15 inches of snow which would be about
      16.5:1

      So somewhere in the range of 15:1 to 20:1 seems totally reasonable.

      We have to get the snow first to be worrying about ratios. 😀 😀

  39. The fact that there is a storm on the east coast to me means you have to watch it. It may be a fish storm but if it comes close enough then look out.

  40. I think Boston will get 8.3 inches on Saturday. No. I’m kidding. See joke above. 😛

    New post!

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